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Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

September 27, 2024
Tactical Preview, Bundesliga Analysis

Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen

Kick Off: Saturday 28th September, 17:30

Competition: Bundesliga

Watch Live: Sky Sports Football

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The outstanding game of the weekend’s football calendar is a Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen that will be played out at the Allianz Arena.

 

 

It’s first against second in Germany’s top-flight, with Bayern having leapt to the summit of the standings off the back of a perfect start to the season under Vincent Kompany. Not only are Bayern winning matches, they are doing so handsomely.

 

Xabi Alonso brings Leverkusen to Bavaria to try to close the three-point gap FCB have opened up at the top of the standings, knowing a defeat will severely complicate the task of his side as they seek to retain their crown.

 

Match stats: All signs point to a thriller

 

Bayern are very warm favourites coming into this clash, with the hosts priced at just 1.67 to claim a fifth successive league win – Leverkusen are 4.0 outsiders.

 

 

This gulf has developed largely because of Bayern’s formidable form early in the season. FCB have won each of their six competitive fixtures and have scored an astonishing 29 goals in accomplishing this – an average of nearly five per game. It should be stressed that the home team have had a comfortable start to the season in terms of fixtures. 

 

Of their opponents, only Freiburg have been in any sort of form to begin the season, with Bayern inflicting a 2-0 defeat upon their guests in that encounter, which they only edged 1.5-1.0 in terms of xG.

 

Leverkusen, of course, are no mugs. Alonso’s side have won five of their last six and come into this clash having scored four goals in three successive fixtures. They are also conceding far more readily than Bayern, however. They have leaked at least one goal in each of their Bundesliga matches this season and even conceded three times against struggling Wolfsburg last weekend.

 

 

B04, meanwhile, can draw confidence from the fact that they have enjoyed a three-match undefeated run against Bayern, scoring at least two goals in each of those games.

 

One area in which Bayer may have the edge is in corner kicks. They have won a staggering 40 so far in the league this term compared to the 23 their opponents from Munich have won.

 

Prediction:

Over 3.5 goals @ 1.8

Both teams to score @ 1.33

Leverkusen to win more corners @ 3.5

Leverkusen (+2) @ 1.4

 

Shot stats: Boniface to shoot on sight

 

Leverkusen lead the Bundesliga in terms of both shots (89) and shots on target (32), eclipsing even Bayern, who sit on 73 and 28 in these categories respectively. The visitors even boast a higher xG than Bayern (10.3-10.1).

 

Leading the way in terms of shots is Bayer’s Victor Boniface, who is sitting on an astonishing 6.79 shots per 90. He is priced at 7.0 to hit six or more in this encounter. Given that he had eight shots in this fixture last season, this should not be dismissed. He does, however, lack accuracy. Just six of his 20 efforts have hit the target, translating to 2.04 shots on target per 90.

 

 

Florian Wirtz arguably carries a greater goal threat. The playmaker, linked with a move to Munich next summer, has four goals for the season and eight shots on target or exactly 2 per 90.

 

Finally for the guests, Alex Grimaldo posts 1 shot on target per 90 yet is available at 2.3 to maintain this average with at least another here, which he did last term.

 

Bayern’s shooting, meanwhile, is dominated by four players: Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala and Serge Gnabry. Combined, they have 42 shots between them, with Kane and Gnabry both posting more than 4 shots per 90 and Musiala offering 3.94.

 

 

When it comes to shots on target, Gnabry leads the way with 2.41 per 90 followed by Michael Olise, who has been remarkably efficient with his seven shots, hitting the target five times with these. The former Crystal Palace winger has 1.85 shots on target per 90, scoring with 43% of his shots. Indeed, with five goals in his last 181 minutes on the park, he is very much a man in form.

 

When these sides met in this fixture last season, a match that finished 2-2, it was Gnabry who posted Bayern’s highest volume of shots with four, but both Kane and Leon Goretzka hit the target both their attempts, with both also scoring a goal.

 

Predictions:

Florian Wirtz to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.67

Victor Boniface to have 3 or more shots @ 1.5

Harry Kane to have 2 or more shots on target @ 1.57

Serge Gnabry to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.3

Serge Gnabry to have 2 or more shots on target @ 2.4

 

Foul stats: Andrich and Musiala set for battle

 

These teams stand at contrasting ends of the Bundesliga fouls table, with Bayern Munich net criminals, having committed 48 fouls and won only 36. On the other hand, Leverkusen have committed only 30 fouls – the lowest figure in the top-flight – and have won 42.

 

 

Given how important these games were last season, they were relatively clean. Remarkably, on both occasions, the teams were tied on the number of fouls they committed, with 13 each in the Leverkusen fixture and just six each at the Allianz Arena. Leverkusen did receive more cards on both occasions, picking up exactly three in each game.

 

Granit Xhaka was the only player to pick up multiple fouls in both games. This season, the Swiss has committed only two fouls in total in the Bundesliga, both of which were against Hoffenheim a fortnight ago, despite playing every available minute.

 

Edmond Tapsoba and Robert Andrich lead Leverkusen with five fouls in the Bundesliga this season. The former has not committed a foul in his last three league outings, whereas the midfielder has given away a free kick in three of his last four starts for Alonso’s side.

 

 

From Bayern’s perspective, Jamal Musiala is highly active in the Fouls Market, both in terms of giving them away and winning them. The Germany international has given away six but has won nine at per-90 rates of 1.82 and 2.73 respectively. Among regulars, these are club-leading figures. He has been fouled at least twice in three of four Bundesliga starts.

 

Dayot Upamecano has committed five fouls, which is the next highest figure, followed by Michael Olise and Joshua Kimmich, who are on four fouls each. Joao Palhinha and Konrad Laimer also hit this figure but they are not regular starters. 

 

Predictions:

Granit Xhaka to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.5

Granit Xhaka to commit 2 or more fouls @ 3.4

Robert Andrich to commit 2 or more fouls @ 3.0

Jamal Musiala to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.22

 

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno /  Alexander Hassenstein / Getty Images

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