Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami
Kick Off: Sunday 16th June, 00:30
Competition: MLS
Watch Live: Apple TV
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MLS continues to rage on as the focus of much of the world turns towards international football, MLS continues to rage on, with Inter Miami travelling north to Philadelphia Union this weekend.
Lionel Messi’s side have made a strong start to the season after missing out on the play-offs last term and are stationed at the top of the Eastern Conference, albeit having played to additional fixtures to Cincinnati, who are one place and two points behind them.
The Union, meanwhile, are in a tight race to secure the final automatic play-off berth, with draws hampering their efforts thus far.
Match stats: No Messi and Suarez? No problem!
Philadelphia come into this encounter undefeated in four, yet this only tells half the story of their recent run. The Union have drawn three straight matches but a 3-0 victory over New England almost exactly a month ago is their only MLS victory in their last 10.
This comes in contrast to David Beckham’s Miami franchise. They have been on a roll lately, with seven wins and two draws in their last 10. But equally, their form has stalled a little of late, too. After losing 3-1 at home to Atlanta, they were held 3-3 by St Louis City three days later. They have not played in the subsequent couple of weeks.
Of course, this match could be dictated by team news. Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez will both miss this trip due to international duty, depriving the visitors of the scorers of 24 of their 42 MLS goals this season. Each of these stars has netted 12. Leonardo Campana is next best with four, indicating the void that must be filled.
The Storks, though, have travelled well on the well. Their current run of five road games without a loss is a regular season record for the franchise. This sequence includes a 2-1 win in Vancouver without several marquee players, though they did ride their luck that day as the Canadian side outgunned them 2.2xG to 1.3.
Defensive issues are something Miami must be aware of, particularly without their offensive aces to negate their problems. In each of their last four and in six of their last seven, they have conceded more than 1xG. This has translated to back-to-back games in which they have conceded three times.
Complicating matter is the fact that the Union are also depleted. Top scorer Daniel Gazdag (10 goals this season) is away on international duty with Hungary while second-leading marksman Julian Carranza is doubtful due to an ankle injury. Messi and Suarez they may not, but they have still weighed in with 16 of 27 goals this season – a greater percentage of their team’s strikes than the South American superstars have mustered.
As such, look for Miami to continue their undefeated away streak.
Prediction:
Inter Miami (+1) @ 1.83
Goal stats: Alba a huge price
All the leading regular marksmen from both of these teams are likely to sit this game out. Between Messi, Suarez, Gazdag and, potentially, Carranza, these clubs will be without a total of 40 goals. That is an enormous percentage of the 69 they have scored between them this season.
So who might step up?
Campana is the most obvious name. He has been collateral damage since the arrival of Suarez but is second in the club’s all-time leading scorer standings on 27 across all competitions, including four in MLS this season. He and Robert Taylor netted last time the superstar forward pair were absent and are likely to carry much of the offensive burden again. The Ecuador star is 3.0 to score.
Jordi Alba, meanwhile, is an excellent long shot at 11.0 to score. Since arriving at Miami, he has scored three goals in 1479 minutes of MLS football – 0.18 per 90 minutes. That figure is roughly one in five – far better than his odds would suggest, particularly since he netted (and delivered two assists) last week against St Louis.
For the home side, Carranza is favourite to score at 2.0 anytime but is carrying that injury that could force him out of the game. Mikael Uhre is obvious pick otherwise. The forward has five MLS goals for the campaign and may step up to take penalties in the absence of Gazdag. At 2.4 to score anytime, he represents good value.
Jakob Glesnes and Leon Flach both scored in a 4-1 MLS win over Inter Miami last season, yet neither has found the net this time around. They are priced 17.0 and 10.0 to score anytime here.
Don’t discount Alejandro Bedoya, who is likely to step into the team for this game. The 37-year-old has had shots on target in each of his last four starts and scored 0.2 goals per 90 minutes in MLS this season. He also found the net in the last meeting between the teams, which was a 4-1 Miami win in the Leagues Cup. At 4.2 to score anytime, the value is arguably not there.
Predictions:
Leonardo Campana to score anytime @ 3.0
Mikael Uhre to score anytime @ 2.4
Jordi Alba to score anytime @ 11.0