Ricardo Pepi: Unlocking a New Level at PSV Eindhoven
Ricardo Pepi began his professional career in MLS with FC Dallas, where he progressed through their academy and debuted for the first team in 2019 at just 16 years old. Pepi’s breakthrough came in the 2021 season, where his goalscoring exploits, including becoming the youngest player in MLS history to net a hat-trick, earned him the league’s Young Player of the Year award.
Following his rise in MLS and standout performances for the U.S. Men’s National Team, including crucial goals during World Cup qualifying, Pepi secured a high-profile transfer to FC Augsburg in the German Bundesliga in January 2022. However, his initial struggles to adapt led to a loan move to FC Groningen in the Dutch Eredivisie, where he rediscovered his form, showcasing his talent with consistent goal contributions.
This led to Augsburg receiving €11 million from PSV to sign Pepi, where he is now flourishing as part of a prominent team in youth development, showcasing his development into a modern striker suited to a possession-based, high-territory side.
One of Pepi’s standout qualities is his exceptional movement in and around the box. His spatial awareness and ability to read the game enabled him to make second and third runs during the possession phase, constantly pulling defenders out of position and creating space for teammates.
This off-ball dynamism is invaluable for a team like PSV, which dominates possession in the final third. His knack for dragging centre-backs out of their shape creates scoring opportunities for himself and opens up gaps for others to exploit.
A key feature of Pepi’s success at PSV is his connection with Ismael Saibari. Operating in a system with two advanced number 8s—often Saibari and Guus Til—PSV’s attacking structure relies heavily on coordinated movement. Pepi and Saibari have formed a particularly effective partnership, with their complementary runs and positional rotations frequently troubling opposing defences.
Pepi’s ability to drop off the backline and link play is critical here. Whether it’s receiving the ball under pressure, turning to thread a pass, or holding possession in tight spaces, Pepi’s on-ball quality ensures this relationship flourishes.
Statistically, Pepi excels in several key areas. His movement is among the best in the league, making him an ideal lead forward for a possession-heavy team. His finishing is clinical and efficient, and his defensive contributions are notable, though this is partially a reflection of PSV’s dominance, which allows him to press higher up the pitch.
He is somewhat of an instinctive finisher and often does better with first-time finishes than those where he has too much time to think. Within this Eredivisie season, he has accumulated 5.33 xG, and produced a xGoT value of 7.52. This is excellent. Every chance he gets is 1.41x as valuable as the average player due to his quality finishing.
Rival no.9 Luuk De Jong is running a multiple just under 1.0x, while Saibari and Til are finishing with a 1.29x and 1.26x multiple respectively. From this perspective, PSV want all their chances to fall to Pepi.
Pepi’s passing and creativity are impressive in tight spaces, though he’s not a player who relies on individual dribbling to create chances. His 1-v-1 ability can occasionally slow down play, but his physical frame compensates, enabling him to carry the ball effectively when needed. Similarly, while dueling isn’t a central part of his game, his size makes him reliable as a target man when required.
I see this as a potential obstacle for Pepi when considering his next move. PSV’s style of play, which relies heavily on prolonged possession in advanced areas, allows them to accommodate a forward who isn’t particularly effective in transitions. However, few teams in the big five leagues dominate territory to the same extent, and those that do are likely too significant a step up for Pepi at this stage of his career.
Additionally, Pepi doesn’t provide much value as a pressing forward. While his defensive metrics may appear strong on paper, this is somewhat misleading. PSV’s territorial dominance naturally inflates his defensive actions in the final third. In reality, the team’s number 8s and wingers, particularly Saibari, play a much more crucial role in leading the press. Saibari often compensates for Pepi, frequently taking on the role of the pressing initiator rather than leaving it to the striker.
Comparable to players like Kevin Denkey, Deniz Undav, and Jonathan David, Pepi offers a versatile profile. While not a strong dribbling forward, his tactical intelligence and positional play make him indispensable for a team like PSV. His ability to link with midfielders in valuable zones, coupled with his strong finishing and relentless box movement, cements his role as a key figure in their attack.
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At just 21, Pepi’s development trajectory remains exciting. His skill set is perfectly suited to PSV’s attacking philosophy, and his partnership with creative players like Saibari will only enhance his value. Whether dropping deep to influence the build-up or making decisive runs in the final third, Pepi’s versatility and intelligence position him as one of the most intriguing young forwards in European football.
However, projecting his career path becomes very difficult due to his weaknesses. He is not yet ready for an elite-level club, but I fear his weakness in pressing and transition may put off teams around the middle of the big five leagues. He is extremely effective for PSV as he creates chances out of possession, and puts them away extremely efficiently. But very few teams have the level of territory that PSV see in most games.
By: @FootballEcon_
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Icon Sportswire