Can PSG Beat the Odds and Eliminate Liverpool?

It has been exactly eight years and three days since Paris Saint-Germain found themselves on the wrong end of one of the greatest comebacks in sports history. Having won the first leg 4-0 at the Parc de Princes, PSG looked all but confirmed to reach the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals. Barcelona mounted an early storm and scored three goals within the first 50 minutes, but Edinson Cavani would add some extra cushion to PSG’s lead at the Camp Nou. It meant that, in order to qualify for the next round, Barcelona needed to score three more goals and not concede any.

They did just that; Neymar would pull one back in the 88th minute before scoring from the penalty spot shortly after, whilst Sergi Roberto’s 95th-minute winner saw Barcelona pull off one of the most unlikely remontadas ever. PSG would nevertheless avenge their defeat seven years later, erasing a 2-3 first-leg deficit and winning 4-1 in Barcelona to confirm their spot in the semifinals, where they lost to Borussia Dortmund.

This week, however, Paris Saint-Germain have a new challenge: beating a Liverpool side that seems to be allergic to losing. The odds on UK gambling sites at FIRST are in Liverpool’s favor, and it’s not hard to see why. Under the watchful eye of Arne Slot, Liverpool have lost just four matches this season: they lost 1-0 to Nottingham Forest in September and 1-0 at Tottenham in January, but they would nevertheless erase that first-leg deficit and book their ticket for the EFL Cup Final, where they will take on Newcastle. And in February, they exited the FA Cup after losing to second-tier Plymouth Argyle.

Out of the nine Champions League matches that they’ve played this season, Liverpool have won all but one: a 3-2 defeat to PSV. It was an effectively meaningless match for the Reds, who had already secured the top spot in the league phase and chose to rotate heavily. Liverpool responded to their defeat to Plymouth by drawing 2-2 at Everton, beating Wolves 2-1, and sharing the spoils in a 2-2 draw vs. Aston Villa.

Since that stalemate in Villa Park, Liverpool have won 2-0 against Manchester City and Newcastle and pulled off a 3-1 comeback victory against Southampton. This come-from-behind win vs. Saints came on the back of their trip to the Parc de Princes, where they faced off against PSG in the first leg of the Champions League Round of 16. Les Parisiens were the better side throughout the contest, achieving 70% possession, 27 shots to Liverpool’s 2, and 1.78 Expected Goals to Liverpool’s 0.27.

However, Liverpool were able to remain in the contest thanks to a world-class display from Alisson in goal, who made nine saves. And just when it seemed the two sides were headed for a goalless draw, Harvey Elliott stepped up and scored in the 87th minute to snatch a 1-0 victory.

Liverpool will be looking to make it five wins on the bounce today as they battle PSG at Anfield for a place in the final eight, and they’ll be counting on a big performance from Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian forward has scored a barely believable 11 goals and 5 assists in his last 11 matches, and he’ll be looking to continue that stellar form against the Ligue 1 leaders.

Apart from their first-leg defeat, PSG have won each of their last 11 matches in all competitions, and they will face off against USL Dunkerque next month in the Coupe de France semifinals. Luis Enrique’s side sit 16 points clear in Ligue 1 after winning 20 of their first 25 matches, and they are all but guaranteed to claim their fourth straight championship. However, they have a Herculean task ahead of them as they look to win at a stadium that has proven to be a fortress. In fact, you’d have to go back all the way to Liverpool’s 2-2 draw vs. Manchester United on January 5 for the last time they failed to win at home.

It remains to be seen whether PSG can pull off an improbable comeback or whether Liverpool can book their ticket to the quarterfinals, but one thing’s certain: one of the two best teams in the world will end their Champions League journey in the Round of 16.