Sergio Camello: Spain’s New Golden Boy
Sergio Camello showed the entire world why he’s worth his weight in gold this summer, scoring two goals in extra time to propel Spain to the gold medal in the Olympic Finals over the hosts, France. The two strikes highlighted a number of his strengths as a center forward, for example: his ability to run in behind, smart positioning to find pockets of space, and instinctual finishing with both feet.
Many years before he was wheeling away in celebration at the Parc des Princes, Sergio was climbing the youth ranks at his boyhood club, Atlético Madrid. He joined the team when he was just eight years old, and made his senior debut for the club (and La Liga debut) on May 18th, 2019. He came on as a second half substitute, scoring the equalizer in a 2-2 draw vs. Levante, and became the first player born in the 21st century to score for the club.
In 2021, he went on loan in the Segunda División with CD Mirandés, where he found the back of the net 15 times in the league. Despite showing plenty of potential, and having moderate anticipation around his development as a player, he went back out on loan in 2022, this time to La Liga side Rayo Vallecano. Last summer, he was sold to the smaller Madrid club on a permanent basis for €5 million.
This seemed a mildly disappointing turn to what, at one point, had seemed an extremely promising career. At times, he had looked like he would be a first team regular for Atleti, or at least a center forward capable of playing somewhere in the upper echelons of the league.
However, the move has turned out to be a very positive one for his career, allowing him to get far more minutes than he would have if he stayed at the Metropolitano. Let’s explore the type of player he has grown into over the past few seasons with Rayo.
Sergio Camello Data Profile
On the surface, Camello’s data profile does not look spectacular.
Last season, he rated below the 50th percentile for all La Liga strikers in the metrics in my center forward radar chart template, with the exception being defensive actions per 90 minutes. Over half of them are below the 25th percentile.
However, when you put a critical eye to the numbers, they begin to look considerably less bleak. The radar chart has two sets of lines, red and green. The red one represents Camello’s raw statistics in each of the specific metrics, while the green line is a ‘team adjusted’ version of the same number. The way I adjust for a team is to compare the player’s metric to his team’s mean, and then compare those deltas to players in the sample set to determine the percentile.
When the green line is further away from the center than the red line, it means the player’s ability in that area might be limited by the team environment. Conversely, when the red is greater than the green, it means that the player’s metrics might be inflated by the team environment. ‘Might’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting in those sentences; the team-adjusted number is by no means a better indication of skill or a complete isolation of the team environment. It is simply a way to visualize some additional data.
In Sergio Camello’s case, his creation and passing in possession metrics (chances created and xA per 90, Pass completion %) are all considerably better when adjusting for team environment than his situation might allow.
This checks out. He had the fourth fewest touches in the box of any striker in the 47 player sample (La Liga CF/Strikers with 900+ club minutes last season). The service he had to work with was pretty abysmal, as evidenced by Rayo Vallecano having the third worst expected assist tally in La Liga last season.
It was a trade-off that Sergio must have known he was signing up for when he moved from Atleti to Rayo: more minutes, but fewer chances to highlight his center forward skills.
Now that we have established that his data profile is subpar, but largely influenced by the lack of service he receives at Rayo Vallecano, let’s dive into a few of his strengths, and a glaring area to improve.
Strength: Excellent Positioning in the Box
Camello is very good at finding space in and around the penalty area. This is a trait that has been apparent since his Atlético days, but has become harder to illustrate due to a pretty appalling lack of service at Rayo Vallecano. Below, see all ‘23/24 La Liga Forwards, plotted by team shot share (number of shots per 90 divided team’s shots per 90) and npxG per shot.
Camello is above the horizontal line, which is the mean for npxG/Shot. This means that the positions he finds himself in to take shots rate as above average. Still, despite this, he has one of the lowest shares of his team’s shots in the sample group. This can be interpreted two ways:
- He does not get much service, as his teammates take up a larger percentage of shots.
- He is highly selective when deciding to shoot or look for a teammate instead of taking a low percentage strike.
I believe there is truth to both. He probably could (and should) be more of a focal point in the opponent’s box, but at the same time, he is also intelligent about when he decides to shoot.
Strength: Finishing with Both Feet
This ability was on full display in the Olympic Final, with a goal on each foot. Camello took each strike on the foot that was best suited to finish each move, not having to shape his body in an awkward manner or take an additional touch to set up a shot on his strong foot.
Some statistics to back this up: 31 of his 109 La Liga shots over the past two seasons have come on his weaker left foot. That’s a 28.4% clip. Robert Lewandowski and Alvaro Morata are two forwards also considered adept at finishing with both feet, and they come in at 17.5% and 26.9% over the past two seasons, respectively. An example of a striker that only uses one foot is Artem Dovbyk, who took a measly 5.9% of his strikes last season on his right. All this to say, Sergio Camello’s weak foot is far from a weakness.
Strength: Value-Add in Link up Play
Part of the reason why Camello might get less service than it might seem he deserves is due to another of his strengths: his ability to play 1-2 passing and pick out teammates in advanced positions when he drops deep to collect the ball. This might not even be the best use of his skills, as I believe he is best suited to finding space in behind a defensive line with his pace and intelligent runs.
However, that might not be feasible to a large degree in Rayo Vallecano’s setup, so this shows his flexibility to play multiple roles depending on the tactical system. Below, I plotted La Liga Forwards by progressive passes per 90 and percentage of progressive passes that come from passes into the penalty area.
His positioning on the graph might not appear the most impressive, but this is more of a sign of playstyle than it is ability (although the Rayo Vallecano set up hinders his ability to show his true level). A player can register a “progressive pass” two ways: by completing a pass 10+ yards forward from the previous point within the past 6 passes (excluding passes that end in the player’s own half of the pitch), and by completing a pass of any length into the penalty area. The key to understanding progressive passing is determining how the player achieves the stat.
Take, for example, wingers like Nico Williams, Savinho, and Lamine Yamal. They are the three red dots in the circle at the top of the graph. The majority of their progressive passes came as a result of passes into the penalty area, so even if they have solid progressive passing marks, it is not a signal that they are good at finding players downfield in the sense you might assume with a ‘progressive’ pass.
On the flip side, looking at the bottom oval, the two red dots are Borja Mayoral and Hugo Duro. These players see a very low percentage of their progressive passes coming as a result of passes into the penalty area, likely because they are not looking to find a teammate when they are in those areas.
Finally, the middle group. The players highlighted (besides Camello) are (right to left): Gerard Moreno, Iago Aspas, Antoine Griezemann, and João Félix. This is a grouping of forwards that are known for their ability to drop into the midfield and link up play with their teammates in possession. Sergio Camello possesses that very same ability.
Strength: Willingness to Press
Pretty simple analysis on this one: Sergio Camello is more than happy to do the dirty work in terms of pressing players and winning the ball back when the opposition makes mistakes. His 0.97 possessions won in the final 3rd per 90 minutes last season in the league were in the 94th percentile for La Liga forwards.
Strength: Sufficient Ball Carrying
In the interest of impartiality, I left Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo in the data set for this graphic, even though they ruin it a bit by being complete outliers in terms of ball carrying for forwards.
When plotting progressive runs and dribble attempts per 90 minutes, Camello rates in the top half of La Liga forwards last season. Bearing in mind the ideas that we have already established:
- Rayo Vallecano probably limit his ability to show his best self
- His propensity to drop in deep to receive the ball in possession results in a healthy supply of actual progressive passes to his teammates
His ball carrying is not world-beating, but it is definitely a plus.
Area to Improve: Poor Aerial Duels
Sergio Camello is 177cm (5’9”). There is absolutely nothing wrong with being a short king that plays as a center forward, but with that information, it should not come as a surprise to know that he is not very good in the air.
“Not very good” might be putting it too mildly. Camello is pretty awful in the air, with the 6th lowest aerial duel win rate among La Liga strikers this past season. I have this down as an “area to improve”, but honestly, it will probably just remain a weakness in his game.
Conclusion
Not only is Sergio Camello limited by team tactics at Rayo Vallecano, but he also has a skillset that does not pop in the analytics I typically use to gauge ability and profile. If you are not careful, you might miss players like him: center forwards that are great at finding space around the box, running in behind with intelligent movement, finishing with both feet, and dropping in deep to find teammates effectively with link up play.
Camello does all of those things, and I anticipate he will be able to parlay his mini-breakthrough at the Olympics to a sustained jump this season in La Liga. Nine days after his individual heroics at the Parc des Princes, Camello replaced Randy Nteka in the 63rd minute and needed just 21 minutes to double their lead and cement a 2-1 victory at Real Sociedad, before playing 24 minutes in their 0-0 draw at Getafe.
He was given the start in their midweek fixture vs. Barcelona and lasted 64 minutes before suffering an injury and being replaced by Nteka. Prior to the match, Camello was given a guard of honor by the Barcelona and Rayo players and was treated to a raucous standing ovation from the Vallecas faithful. Rayo took the lead within nine minutes, but Barcelona would storm back to a 2-1 win via second-half goals from Pedri and Dani Olmo.
Whilst Rayo’s summer transfer window has been mainly characterized by veteran signings like James Rodríguez (33), Adrián Embarba (32), Gerard Gumbau (29) and Augusto Batalla (28), in Camello, they have one of the brightest young talents in Spanish football. He has emerged as a key figure for Rayo over the past two seasons since joining from Atleti with 12 goals and 6 assists in 72 appearances, and at 23 years of age, he’s more than capable of delivering a breakout season for Los Franjirrojos.
By: Spencer Mossman / @fc_mossman
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Europa Press Sports