Borussia Mönchengladbach: A Course in How to Maximize Expected Goals

Borussia Mönchengladbach have enjoyed a thoroughly productive season in the Bundesliga, surpassing all expectations that supporters had when Marco Rose took over as manager last summer. After defeating Bayern Munich 2-1 in December, Die Fohlen topped the Bundesliga, albeit temporarily. Since then, performances have generally been consistent, and Gladbach have been strong challengers for the Champions League places, currently holding onto fourth place with a +4 GD advantage to Bayer Leverkusen.

Many have attributed this success to free-flowing football and the emergence of young performers, but it is an established fact that Gladbach are capable of sustaining this level due to their use of the Expected Goals balance (xG – xGA).

What is xG and How Does it Benefit Gladbach?

Expected goals (xG) is a measure of the number of goals that a team would be expected to score in a match, based off the number and quality of shots they performed. Conversely, the xG performance of the opposition in an individual match would equate to a team’s expected goals against (xGA).