Dortmund v Mainz Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Dortmund v Mainz
Kick Off: 16:30, Sunday 30th March
Competition: Bundesliga
Watch Live: Sky Sports
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Dortmund welcome a Mainz side to Signal Iduna Park who have exceeded all expectations this season and are in a battle to finish in the Champions League positions, having finished just two points above the relegation zone last campaign. Dortmund have had a torrid domestic season which sees them sit 11th in the Bundesliga table, but there is still an outside opportunity to qualify for Europe if they can put together a strong end to the campaign.
Match Stats: An entertaining game in prospect with plenty riding on it
Mainz have never qualified for the Champions League before which would make this season a historic one if they can cling on to their current position in the table. Their position is a precarious one with Frankfurt level on points and the likes of Leipzig, Freiburg and Monchengladbach in close proximity.
However, Mainz are continuing to maintain their positive form as shown by the fact that they enter this game on a run of six games unbeaten, winning four of these and seeing BTTS in each of the last three. Mainz’s performances have remained steady on the road in the Bundesliga this season, avoiding defeat in nine of their 13 games on the road whilst scoring 26 goals in the process – a record only bettered by Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen.
Dortmund have had a tough campaign in the Bundesliga but have remained pretty steady at home, with only four teams posting a better home record than Niko Kovac’s side. They’ve only lost three of their games at Signal Iduna Park this season and scored 31 goals, only Bayern Munich have scored more goals at home.
The initial meeting between these sides was packed with incident as Mainz ran out 3-1 winners. The result was largely dictated by an early red card for Emre Can which saw Mainz take control of the game, having nine shots on target and generating an xG of 2.02. This game should be more competitive if Dortmund can keep 11 men on the pitch.
Predictions
- BTTS @ 1.6
- Over 2.5 goals @ 1.6
- Mainz 4+ shots on target @ 1.73
Shot stats: Guirassy the standout
Serhou Guirassy has been the one shining light in what has been a difficult season for Dortmund, especially domestically. You would usually expect Dortmund to be battling with the likes of Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga but they currently find themselves 11th. However, scoring goals at home has not been an issue for Niko Kovac’s side this season.
The Guinean striker scored Dortmund’s only goal in their 3-1 defeat to Mainz earlier in the season, his service was limited as a result of an early red card, but he managed to find the back of the net from the penalty spot. Guirassy has scored 24 goals across his 36 appearances for Dortmund across all competitions this season with 14 of these coming in the Bundesliga. He’s comfortably Dortmund’s top scorer in the German top flight with Jamie Gittens in second only managing seven goals this campaign.
Guirassy is averaging 1.14 shots on target per 90 in the Bundesliga this season and has also impressed in the Champions League, with 10 goals from his 12 appearances in the competition whilst averaging 2.09 shots on target per 90. This ability to produce at the very highest level in club football sets Guirassy up well to add to his promising shot on target and goal records here.
Predictions
- Serhou Guirassy to score anytime @ 2.1
- Serhou Guirassy 2+ shots on target @ 2.0
Card stats: Both sides likely to get frustrated
Interestingly these sides have both picked up 56 cautions each in the Bundesliga this campaign (2.15 per game). The initial meeting between the sides saw Dortmund pick up a red card as well as five cards overall. Dortmund’s card record can be whittled down to frustration as a result of a general underperformance in the Bundesliga this season. Dortmund have also picked up more red cards than any other side in the German top flight this campaign (6).
Mainz are averaging 12.1 fouls committed per game in the Bundesliga this term which is a record only bettered by Union Berlin and Bochum, whilst Dortmund are averaging just 9.8 fouls committed per game, with only three sides having a lower fouls average in the Bundesliga. This suggests that whilst the card count may end up being quite even here, Mainz should be the side that commits the majority of the fouls.
Predictions
- 2 or more cards in the first half @ 1.67
- 2 or more cards for each team @ 1.83
- 3+ Mainz cards @ 1.83
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / DeFodi Images
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