Jhon Durán: Profiling Aston Villa’s Rising Star
When Chelsea signed Cole Palmer in the summer of 2023, many skeptics raised concerns about his unproven talent in the Premier League. The same worries are currently escalated by similar critics who doubt Jhon Durán’s ability to start for an elite side like Chelsea consistently.
Nevertheless, the Chelsea hierarchy has been long admirers of the Colombian striker. The soaring potential of the youngster is a desirable proposition that the Blues believe they cannot pass on.
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Durán’s addition might be more practical than many think since his arrival will add competition to Chelsea’s striker department. Furthermore, it will not severely pinch game time from Nicolas Jackson, who showed plenty of promising signs last season. Moreover, Durán will add a different dimension to Chelsea’s present striker options, which will be the focus of this article.
Player Profile Methodology
Due to Durán’s inexperience in the Premier League, there is very little data to draw conclusions about his proficiency in any metric. However, it could allow us to understand his on-field play style tendencies. But then again, with only 475 minutes of data available from his 2023/24 season at Aston Villa, there is only so much validity in the numbers.
Therefore, we will also utilize his data from the 2022 MLS season to corroborate the observations. Using Durán’s two seasons worth of data, we will compare him to Jackson and identify what he can offer better than the Senegalese striker to Chelsea next season.
Shooting Data
We used five metrics to analyze the shooting production of the two strikers. The total shots indicate the volume of attempts, the on-target % identifies the accuracy, the npxG/shot reflects the quality of attempted shots, the goals-xG elucidates the chance-finishing prowess, and the goals reflect the final output.
When evaluating the two striker’s output, we stumbled upon interesting details.
What stands out the most and would come out as a surprise to many is that Jackson attempts shots of higher accuracy and quality despite the discourse of Durán being the better finisher. However, the simple cause for this is that Durán attempts more shots, which can negatively affect accuracy.
Moreover, Jackson generally hesitated to pull the trigger on numerous occasions during the 2023/24 season, which was a point of frustration for the supporters. Then, you may ask, why does Jackson have a lower finishing proficiency and a lesser scoring rate than Durán?
Well, that comes down to the qualitative factor of the finishing technique, which data cannot capture. However, it is evident when watching Durán’s match footage, as his distinctive shot power contrasts Jackson’s more tame efforts. So, although Chelsea’s No. 15 generates the statistically better shots, Durán’s ridiculous shot power forces the ball past goalkeepers. Therefore, Durán delivers more efficiency in front of goal and comes out on top as the superior finisher.
Possession Statistics
The utilization of various possession-based metrics will help gauge Durán and Jackson’s on-ball play style. So, let us delve into each section in detail.
The total touches and progressive passes values indicate that both players are roughly equally involved in their team’s play. However, there are stark contrasts in their effectiveness after receiving the ball. Firstly, Jackson proves superior in progressive carries and take-ons, showing that he is a better ball carrier. Furthermore, he is a better protector of the ball.
Although some may view his underperformance in the miscontrols and dispossessed metrics as a contradiction to the above comment, it seems that it is a consequence of the higher volume of carries and take-ons he attempts. Jackson’s 34% of take-ons tackled %, which vastly outdoes Durán’s output, validates the same.
Secondly, Jackson is statistically the more proficient creator. His progressive passes, passes into the final third, key passes, and expected assisted goals (xAG) figures all prove the same. Therefore, there is a clear outperformer in the possession metrics, with Jackson being the definitive favorite for Enzo Maresca when he wants his striker to drop deep and create chances.
Defensive Numbers
Measuring any player’s defensive proficiency by using raw numbers is not an ideal approach. They do not represent qualitative factors such as defensive intelligence, positioning, pressing capacity, and other important facets.
Therefore, the below statistics are not an accurate depiction of who the better out-of-possession player is. Nevertheless, from the video evidence, Jackson and Durán seem as capable front-line pressers that Maresca can rely on.
However, a distinct dissimilarity between Durán and Jackson is their aerial dominance. The contrasting aerial presence between the pair is highlighted by the Durán delivering a higher success % in the metric despite competing for more duels. This can be a vital asset for Maresca as the Colombian’s added aerial threat can be an effective weapon in both penalty boxes. Therefore, against more physical teams that Chelsea struggled with last season, Durán could be the more suitable starter.
Conclusion
Analyzing the various facets of both players’ skillsets helped paint a clear picture of their differing profiles. Durán is the better chance-finisher with a superior shooting technique and an immense aerial threat, whereas Jackson is the better on-ball asset, supplying the team with chances through his dribbling and passing.
Depending on Maresca’s in-game requirements, both strikers can alternate. Furthermore, considering the duo are still early into their careers, constant rotations and regular game time will help their individual growth. Therefore, Chelsea might be more well-equipped for next season than many think. Nevertheless, the growth of the two strikers will be one of the most intriguing developments to watch out for in the 2024/25 season.
By: Fahd Ahmed / @fahdahmed987
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / ANP / Getty Images