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Marseille vs PSG Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

March 29, 2024
Tactical Preview

Marseille vs PSG

Kick Off: Sunday 31st March at 19:45

Competition: Ligue 1

Watch Live: TNT Sports 1

 

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Marseille host PSG in one of the most anticipated Ligue 1 matches of the season, with the pressure on the home side to get a result to enhance their Champions League prospects for next term. The top four from France’s top-flight are destined to qualify for UEFA’s new-look Champions League, but OM sit seventh, some four points off the pace. The gap is not unbridgeable in the remaining eight games, yet Jean-Louis Gasset, who is in charge until the end of the season on an interim basis, will have to get the most out of his players.

 

 

Sunday’s match promises to be a particular test. OM are destined to go into the fixture decimated by injury problems, particularly in defence. PSG, meanwhile, are moving serenely towards yet another title. Luis Enrique’s side might have shown some vulnerability this season, but there has not been another team close to showing the consistency in what has been a competitive Ligue 1 to get anywhere close to them.

 

There might have been some evidence of Les Parisiens slacking off in recent weeks, resting Kylian Mbappe on the bench, for example, but don’t expect any such leniency ahead of one of the biggest rivalry matches in France. PSG will attack this game wholeheartedly from the start and will not show an inch of mercy towards their opponents. 

 

Marseille vs PSG Cheat Sheet

 

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets, and we encourage you to find your own methods for helping you pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

 

You can find Marseille v PSG match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups approximately one hour before kick-off.

 

Match stats: PSG to win big

 

Everything leading up to this match points to a PSG victory – and potentially a comfortable one at that. Marseille’s decimated defence spells trouble, especially with the main problem area at right back. Jonathan Clauss’ injury from France against Chile means OM are without their top four players in this area and will have to improvise. The likely head-to-head opponent for the makeshift stand-in? Kylian Mbappe. Good luck to them.

 

 

Even in normal circumstances, OM would have been hard-pressed to defend their proud undefeated record at home. PSG comprehensively have the upper hand in the head-to-head between these clubs, showing an ability to raise their game for Le Classique. They have won nine of the last 11 league games between the teams.

 

When the teams met in September, the capital side won 4-0, while the score when they met last at Stade Velodrome was 3-0 in PSG’s favour. Given the defensive problems that Marseille face coming into this game, another heavy defeat could be on the cards.

 

OM will hope to cause PSG some problems going the other way. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been in fine form, scoring five in his last four Ligue 1 matches, while Iliman Ndiaye is finally starting to show the type of level that saw him earn such a big billing when he arrived at the club. It is unlikely to be enough to stop an away win, though.

 

Analyzing Olympique de Marseille’s Transfer Window

 

Predictions

 

PSG @ 2.0

PSG (-1) Handicap@ 3.75

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.57

Shooting stats: Mbappe to thrive

 

Kylian Mbappe is, of course, the overwhelming threat in terms of getting shots on target. The PSG attacker averages 2.15 shots on target per 90 in Ligue 1 this season and is likely to be cut loose against a particularly weak area of the Marseille team.

 

It should not be a case of if he has a shot on target in this game, but rather how many. In eight of his last 15 starts for PSG, he has managed at least three shots on target. There is the threat he is withdrawn early given his weakening status in the squad, yet 1.62 on him to have at least 2 shots on target and 3.2 on at least 3 look good odds.

 

An alternative worth studying on the opposite side of the pitch is Achraf Hakimi. The right back has 0.58 shots per 90 in the league. After having four efforts in the previous match against Marseille, 2.38 on him hitting the target once is an interesting price. 

 

Marseille’s Renaissance under Gattuso: Aubameyang’s Impact and the Club’s Resurgence

 

Marseille’s credible threat, meanwhile, is limited. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the one to watch, boasting 1.53 shots on target per 90 this season. Beyond him, Ndiaye is coming into form and has a shot on target in three of his last six.

 

Midfielder Jordan Veretout is the left-field option to look at for OM. He has been given greater freedom under Gasset and has had shot on target in seven of his last 11 appearances. At 2.75, he is worth some consideration, even if OM are likely to be severely restricted in their attacking threat.

 

Predictions:

Kylian Mbappe to have 2 or more shots on target @ 1.62

Kylian Mbappe to have 3 or more shots on target @ 3.20

Achraf Hakimi to have 1 or more shots on target @ 2.38

 

Fouls stats: Veretout and Mbemba look excellent value

 

What is expected to be a combative game with plenty of blood and thunder may disappoint in this regard. Many of the chief protagonists when it comes to committing fouls are unavailable for Marseille, with Pape Gueye, Jean Onana and Bamo Meite among those to miss out.

 

Of OM’s players who committed at least two fouls in the trip to Parc des Princes earlier this season, only Chancel Mbemba and Jordan Veretout are likely starters here. Both typically commit 1 foul per 90, yet with their defensive duties likely to be enhanced, a repeat of Paris is possible. Priced at 2.0 and 1.4 respectively to give away just one free kick, both are excellent value.

 

 

Ulisses Garcia is one to watch. He is likely to be the player chosen to play in the problem right back area against Mbappe. His normal foul count of 0.91 per 90 is likely to be pushed up. PSG’s protagonists when it comes to giving away free kicks are likely to be clearer, although Randal Kolo Muani and Manuel Ugarte are not guaranteed starters after international duty.

 

It was in the full back areas that PSG were stretched against Marseille in Paris, with Lucas Hernandez and Achraf Hakimi both giving away multiple free kicks. Both players are a good price simply to commit one infringement in this match at 1.36 and 1.3 respectively.

 

Predictions:


Jordan Veretout to commit 1 foul or more @ 1.40

Chancel Mbemba to commit 1 foul or more @ 2.0

Achraf Hakimi to commit 1 foul or more @ 1.30

Lucas Hernandez to commit 1 foul or more @ 1.36

 

By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Emilio Andreoli – UEFA
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