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LAFC v LA Galaxy Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

April 5, 2024
Tactical Preview, MLS Analysis

LAFC v LA Galaxy

Kick Off: Saturday 6th April, 00:45

Competition: MLS

Watch Live: Apple TV

 

For Bet Builder stats at your fingertips, head over to Andy’s Opta-powered Bet Builder stats tool, free to use on his website. Expert insight on the Premier League, SPFL, EFL, and major European leagues can be found on the football predictions section.

 

El Trafico returns this weekend, with LAFC hosting LA Galaxy in the 22nd edition of one of the MLS’ premier derby matches at the BMO Stadium. LA Galaxy hold the edge with nine wins, yet it has been LAFC who have been the superior team in recent times. The hosts are seeking a fifth win in the last seven between these clubs.

 

 

In terms of the league table, the Galaxy have made much the better start to the season. Spearheaded by former Frankfurt striker Dejan Joveljic and ex-Barcelona prodigy Riqui Puig, they are unbeaten through six matches of the regular season and top the MLS Western Conference. No team in their division has scored more goals and only Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami have found the net more in the entire MLS.

 

LAFC, by contrast, are lagging. They have picked up only seven points but are undefeated at home, notably recording a 5-0 win over Nashville last time out. Despite this, they are still off to their worst start ever in MLS. Steve Cherundolo’s side are aiming to use this match to really kickstart their season yet this promises to be their most challenging encounter to date.  Here is the best advice for your LAFC v LA Galaxy Bet Builder.

 

Goals to flow in El Trafico

 

With LAFC strong at home and the Galaxy in high spirits, calling the outcome of this match is tricky. The hosts are strong 1.7 favourites, yet the strong start their neighbours have made suggests that this price is a little flattering. Backing the Galaxy with a +1 handicap at 2 looks strong value and with a +2 handicap they are on offer at 1.36. Given the home team only have one win this season by a multigoal margin, that latter price could be a nice way to boost an LAFC v LA Galaxy bet builder.

 

Goals, meanwhile, look likely. LAFC are averaging 1.5 goals against per game this season, and while they have only leaked once at home, the chances of them shutting out the Western Conference’s strongest attack seem slim. The visiting team, meanwhile, are giving up plenty of scoring opportunities. This is reflected in the fact that they are also conceding 1.5 goals per game. LAFC’s forwards should be licking their lips given that they have scored seven times in their last two games.  

 

 

Historically, too, there are goals in this fixture. Four of the last six games have produced at least five goals, which is on offer at 3.8, while nine of the last 11 have yielded at least three strikes, an eventuality that is priced at 1.44. Both teams to score is also probable given the past history of these clubs. There has been only one clean sheet in the last 11 games between these teams. With both scoring and conceding freely this season, it looks highly probable and is also priced at 1.44.

 

Prediction:

 

LA Galaxy (+1 handicap) @ 2.0 on Paddy Power
LA Galaxy (+2 handicap) @ 1.36 on Paddy Power

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.44 on Paddy Power

Both teams to score @ 1.44 on Paddy Power

Joveljic offers outstanding value

 

The clear goal threat coming into this game is Dejan Joveljic, who has already plundered five goals this season – more than twice as many as anyone else who will be on display. Although he started LA Galaxy’s previous match on the bench, they offered much less scoring threat without him.

 

After netting in his five previous games, he is unlikely to be ignored having apparently overcome a knock, especially as his replacement Miguel Berry failed to get an effort on target. Joveljic’s price of 3.5 to score anytime is extremely good, especially as he has managed at least two shots on target in each of his last three starts.

 

 

Former Barcelona star Riqui Puig’s shot count is also huge. He has 2.83 shots per 90 and 1.33 shots on target. Puig has failed to hit the target in his last three games but when he’s been good has very good. For that reason, he’s worth some consideration at 3.3 to have multiple shots on target, having done this in half the matches he’s started this term.  

 

In terms of shots on target, Cristian Olivera is the home side’s player to watch. Denis Bouanga is more dangerous in terms of the volume of shots he hits and goals he scores, but has poor accuracy, so these numbers do not always translate to shots on target. A price of 1.06 on the Gabon international is, therefore, too skinny.

 

Olivera actually hits more shots on target per 90 with 1.92. He has managed at least one in every match he has played so far this term, suggesting that at 1.57, he offers far better value than Bouanga.

 

Predictions:

Dejan Joveljic to score anytime @ 3.50 on Paddy Power

Dejan Joveljic to have 2+ shots on target @ 2.0 on Paddy Power

Riqui Puig to have 2+ shots on target @ 3.30 on Paddy Power

Cristian Olivera to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.92 on Paddy Power

 

Tillman and Hollingshead to be busy

 

LAFC have three players liable to start this game who are averaging more than two fouls per match in the early stages of the season: Timmy Tillman, Mateusz Bogusz and Eduard Atuesta. All are priced at 1.1 to commit at least one foul and are worth of consideration to boost an LAFC v LA Galaxy bet builder.

 

 

Backing them to make at least two fouls, meanwhile. Tillman is the player likeliest to give away multiple free kicks given that Riqui Puig is likely to operate in his area. The Spaniard is winning 2.5 free kicks per 90 on average, suggesting the German could be in for a busy night defensively. Having given away 3 fouls in four of six matches this season, backing him to repeat this figure at 2.7 offers value. 

 

Another to follow is Ryan Hollingshead, purely because he is up against Joseph Paintsil, who is winning on average more than 3 free kicks per game. With right-back Hollingshead committing 1.79 fouls per 90, he could easily commit a couple of indiscretions. 

 

LA Galaxy are a cleaner team than their opponents. They are committing a little more than 10 fouls per match on average. Remarkably, there has been only one occasion when one of their players has committed more than 2 fouls in a game this season. That was back on matchday one when Riqui Puig gave away 3 free kicks against Inter Miami.

 

Defensive midfielder Edwin Cerrillo offers the value here. With fouls in five of six matches this season, he is a good price at 1.36 to give away at least one free kick and 2.7 to give away at least two. There is a warning, though: he was benched in the last game, although he still managed to come on and give away a couple of free kicks during his 20-minute cameo.

 

Predictions:

Timmy Tillman to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.10 on Paddy Power

Timmy Tillman to commit 3+ fouls @ 2.70 on Paddy Power

Ryan Hollingshead to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.10 on Paddy Power

Edwin Cerrillo to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.36 on Paddy Power

 

By: @AndysBetClubUk

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Matthew Ashton – AMA – Getty / Patrick T. Fallon – AFP

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