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Genoa v Sassuolo Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

May 11, 2024
Tactical Preview, Serie A Analysis

Genoa v Sassuolo

Kick Off: Sunday 12th May, 14:00

Competition: Serie A

Watch Live: TNT Sports 3

 



For Bet Builder stats at your fingertips, head over to Andy’s Opta-powered Bet Builder stats tool, free to use on his website. Expert insight on the Premier League, SPFL, EFL, and major European leagues can be found in the football predictions section.

 

Serie A’s fraught relegation battle is drawing to a remarkable climax, with Genoa hosting Sassuolo on Sunday in what promises to be an intriguing affair. There are three games of the campaign remaining and the home side are safe on 43 points but their visitors sit second from bottom of the standings.

 

 

Sassuolo are far from down, though. They are within striking distance of 16th and with fellow strugglers Cagliari to play at home next week, the points they require for survival are eminently attainable. Coming off a narrow victory over champions Inter last weekend, the visiting side will believe anything is possible. Here is the best advice for your Genoa v Sassuolo Bet Builder.

 

Match stats: Genoa good value for the win

 

Draws have proliferated Genoa’s matches of late. From their last 20 Serie A matches, half have ended in draws with another seven victories. Last weekend, they were involved in a thrilling 3-3 tie with AC Milan but rather rode their luck as they created just 1 xG compared to their opponents’ tally of 2.8. 

 

It was the second time in successive matches that they scored three goals, having struck three times against Cagliari a week earlier. Those six goals were scored by six different players.

 

Of course, Albert Gudmundsson has been their danger man this season, with the Icelandic sensation having bagged 14 Serie A goals, making him one of the most dangerous players in the league. He missed out last weekend but should return after illness here, replacing either Caleb Ekuban or Morten Thorsby.

 

Genoa, meanwhile, have failed to win more than three corners in any of their last seven matches while they have given up at least four in each of these games. If the home side have been solid but unspectacular, the visitors had seemed to be sliding meekly towards relegation before overcoming Inter 1-0 in a major shock last weekend. They had won only one of their previous 15 games, which was also a 1-0 home success over Frosinone.

 

 

Indeed, captain Gian Marco Ferrari and his team-mates have not tasted an away win since beating Empoli 4-3 in November. They have since lost 10 of 12 across all competitions. The numbers, meanwhile, look bleak for the visitors. They have failed to create more than 1 xG in their last three games and have only managed more than two corners once in their last four.

 

Although they improved in their shutout against Inter last weekend, they had conceded at least two goals in their previous four. Against a Genoa side high on confidence in front of goal, that cannot be a positive thing.

 

Prediction:

Genoa @ 2.15

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85

 

Shooting stats: Ekuban and Lauriente offer threat

 

Gudmundsson might be Genoa’s top scorer, but he is certainly not their most prolific shooter. That honour goes to Mateo Retegui, who has both more shots and more shots on target than the Iceland international despite playing around 800 fewer minutes. Although he is 1.4 to get a shot on target, he has only managed this from open play once since returning from injury plus a penalty goal last weekend. 

 

Better value is Caleb Ekuban, who has 0.98 shots on target per 90 but is on a four-game streak of hitting the target. The Ghana international’s change in fortunes has been fuelled by a change in role to make him a more attacking player. He has shots on target in five of his last six matches he has started as an attacker. 

 

 

With goals in two of his last four games, and the scorer of the winning goal when these sides met in December, he is worth consideration as an anytime goalscorer at 3.75. Sassuolo’s goal threat is carried by Andrea Pinamonti, who has 10 strikes for the season and Domenico Berardi, who has nine but is out for the season after an Achilles rupture.

 

The man likeliest to get shots away, then, is winger Armand Lauriente. He has 2.72 shots per 90 and 0.96 shots on target per 90. At 2.0 to get a shot on target in this game, he looks excellent value.

 

Lauriente will be on a high after scoring the winner against Inter, while he managed three shots on target in two of his previous three Serie A outings, including his most recent away game. With four goals in his last four starts, there is also strong value on him to score anytime at 4.5. Pinamonti and Kristian Thorstvedt are Sassuolo’s other main threats but neither offers the same value.

 

Predictions:

Caleb Ekuban to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.5

Armand Lauriente to have 1 or more shots on target @ 2.0

Armand Lauriente to score anytime @ 4.5

 

Foul stats: Expect a Norwegian war in midfield

 

Neither Genoa nor Sassuolo post bad disciplinary records, whether that’s giving away free kicks or chalking up cards. It is notable that Genoa have three red cards to their credit this season, but this is an average figure. In per 90 figures, the home side are accruing 2.29 cards a game with their opponents even less at 1.92.

 

 

The number of fouls they are giving away is also limited. Genoa sit at 11.9 per 90 for the season while Sassuolo are at just 10.1 – the second-lowest figure in Serie A with only Napoli lower. Similarly, these are not teams that win a good deal of fouls, so this is likely to be a quiet match in this regard, particularly with Genoa safe. But in this game, who are the likely criminals?

 

Genoa midfielder Morten Frendrup is a leading candidate. With 1.47 fouls per 90, he is the home side’s second-most prolific player when it comes to conceding free kicks among their likely starters. He did not against Milan last week, but that broke a five-match run in which he did. Last time Genoa faced Sassuolo, he gave away two.

 

Morten Thorsby should also be monitored, but at 1.06 to give away one free kick or 1.4 for two or more, there is little value on the Norwegian. Compatriot Thorstvedt is the Sassuolo player who tends to give away the most fouls. He conceded two in the previous meeting and averages 1.4 per 90 this season. At 1.22 to give away at least one free kick, he offers a strong option to boost a bet builder, while there is also value on him committing at least two fouls.

 

 

A longer shot is Matheus Henrique. He averages just 0.74 fouls per 90, but as he gave away two free kicks when these sides last met, there could be value here, although he has been in and out of the starting XI in recent weeks. He is an attractive 1.4 to give away at least one free kick.

 

Predictions:

Morten Frendrup to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.2

Morten Frendrup to commit 2 or more fouls @ 2.0

Kristian Thorstvedt to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.22

 

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Alessandro Sabattini / Getty Images

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