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Canada v Uruguay Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

July 13, 2024
Tactical Preview

Canada v Uruguay

Kick Off: Sunday 14th June, 01:00

Competition: Copa America

Watch Live: Premier Sports 1

 

For Bet Builder stats at your fingertips, head over to Andy’s Opta-powered Bet Builder stats tool, free to use on his website. Expert insight on the Premier League, SPFL, EFL, and major European leagues can be found in the football predictions section.

 

Canada and Uruguay face off in Charlotte for the right to claim third place at the 2024 Copa America. For Marcelo Bielsa’s side, it is an unwelcome return to the venue in which they were defeated by Colombia 1-0 just three days ago.

 

At full-time several of their players, most notably Liverpool forward Darwin Nunez, went into the stand to trade blows with opposition supporters in ugly scenes that were displayed around the world. Canada, meanwhile, have enjoyed a famous run at this tournament and will be hungry to finish on the podium, despite only winning a single fixture within 90 minutes.

 

 

Match stats: Bielsa’s men to finish on a high

 

Uruguay’s status as favourites is hard to dispute. While the South American side had been on a five-match winning streak before being upset by 10-man Colombia three days ago, Canada have won only three of their last 12 within 90 minutes.

 

Jesse Marsch’s side, though, have managed to make life difficult for their opponents during this run. They notably held France to a scoreless draw, while they have kept twice clean sheets from five in the Copa America, conceding only against Argentina, against whom they have lost 2-0 twice, and Venezuela. Indeed, the defensive strength of Canada is underlined by the fact that in their three matches against Peru, Chile and Venezuela, they have conceded under 1xG.   

 

Uruguay will likely prove stronger opponents, even if their motivation is questionable due to the manner of their semi-final exit. Although they have failed to score in successive games, they have played powerful Brazil and Colombia teams. In the group stages, they generated at least 1.5xG in each of their three games, scoring nine goals and winning all three. 

 

Bielsa’s side have managed more shots than any other nation at the Copa America (73) and place third in terms of shots per 90. Similarly, Canada place fifth in terms of shots conceded per game, and while it should be stressed these are of average quality (0.12xG per shot), Marsch’s side do post 1.36xG against per game, suggesting Uruguay will break their two-game scoring duck in this clash.

 

Canada v Chile Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

 

The history of the third-place playoff in the Copa America, meanwhile, does not guarantee goals in the way it is considered to at the World Cup. In the last four of these games, only two have produced Over 2.5 goals, which is on offer here at 1.65. Uruguay, meanwhile, are worth following on the corners market. They have had four or more corners in four of their five fixtures in the USA, and given Canada concede an average of 4.15 per 90, the South Americans are well priced at 1.44 to win four or more. 

 

Prediction:

Uruguay @ 1.5

Uruguay to win 4 or more corners @ 1.44

 

Shot stats: Araujo offers value for Uruguay 

 

No surprises for guessing that Darwin Nunez dominates that shot count for Uruguay. The Liverpool striker has had a massive 20 efforts during the Copa America, which is at least three more than anyone else in the competition. There are only eight other players even in double figures. He has had at least four shots in four of five games and is 1.4 to repeat that.

 

When it comes to shots on target, though, Maximiliano Araujo is Uruguay’s main threat. He has six, one ahead of Nunez. Despite this, the Toluca winger is priced at 1.57. He has shots on target in three of the four games he has played more than 30 minutes in.


Despite this, Nunez is the likeliest scorer. He had scored in seven successive national team games before a current three-match drought against tricky opponents. His value looks fair at 2.0 to net anytime, yet his pitch time could be restricted, with this an apparently ideal farewell for Luis Suarez, whose minutes have been restricted. The Inter Miami striker is 2.2 to score anytime while Araujo is 3.4.

 

 

Canada’s threat typically comes Jonathan David and Cyle Larin, both of whom have seven shots for the tournament. With Marsch having confirmed changes for this game, Tani Oluwaseyi could get his chance to start. He leads Canada in shots per 90 (5.45) and shots on target per 90 (1.82) but has been used exclusively off the bench. Also look for Nashville midfielder Jacob Shaffelburg to have an impact. With just 256 minutes of action played, he leads Canada with three shots on target. 

 

Bear in mind, Canada’s shooting stats are low. With 9.25 shots per 90, they have the fifth smallest tally in the Copa America and fare even worse when it comes to shots on target. At 2.64 per 90, they are third worst ahead of only Bolivia and Costa Rica. 

 

Predictions:

Maximiliano Araujo to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.57
Tani Oluwaseyi to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.83

Foul stats: De La Cruz to be targeted

 

Only Colombia have committed more fouls than Uruguay at the Copa America, yet on a per 90 basis, Bielsa’s side stand only sixth in the competition. Nahitan Nandez stands clear with 12 fouls committed. The midfielder has given away at least two in every match and is priced at 1.44 to do so again here. 

 

Similarly, Nicolas De La Cruz offers interesting value to commit multiple fouls at 1.73. He has committed 10 in the competition, but while Nandez has been a consistent criminal, the Flamengo man gave away six fouls in one go against Brazil. There is more risk backing him. De La Cruz offers more value when it comes to drawing fouls. He has been fouled at least twice in each game and at least three times in the three of four he has started. 

 

 

Despite a high number of fouls committed, Uruguay have managed to keep a lid on their card count, with just seven in total. This is a frustrated squad, though, both in terms of the result they suffered against Colombia and the aftermath. Don’t rule out them boiling over and giving away a slew of cards, despite being 3.3 to receive more than their opponents.

 

Canada, with 13 cards (all yellow), have received more than any other nation in the tournament. These have come off 66 fouls or 12.5 per 90. Stephen Eustaquio is their leader in this regard on 12, which is 2.35 per 90. The Porto midfielder is likely to start this game and has given up two fouls in three of his five outings at this competition.

 

With Alphonso Davies injured and unlikely to play, Richie Laryea could well feature prominently. He is something of a foul magnet, having picked up 2.58 per 90 at the Copa America. The Toronto winger is just 1.04 to be fouled once and 1.25 to be fouled at least twice. 

 

Predictions:

Nahitan Nandez to commit 2 or more fouls @ 1.44

Nicolas De La Cruz to be fouled 2 or more times @ 1.5

Nicolas De La Cruz to be fouled 3 or more times @ 2.5

Stephen Eustaquio to commit 2 or more fouls @ 1.44

 

 

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Peter G. Aiken / Getty Images / Andy Jacobsohn / AFP

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