Sevilla v Real Betis Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Sevilla v Real Betis
Kick Off: Sunday 6th October, 17:30
Competition: La Liga
Watch Live: Premier Sports 1
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One of Spain’s most fiercely contested derbies takes place on Sunday, with Sevilla playing host to Real Betis at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan. After a slow start to the campaign, Sevilla have picked up seven points in their last four matches, winning their last couple at home and have had the advantage of a full week to prepare for this tie given they have no European football this season.
On the other hand, Betis had the unwelcome distraction of a trip to Poland to face Legia Warsaw on Thursday, one they responded to by fielding a much-changed side ahead of their big game of the week. Will the gamble of Manuel Pellegrini’s side pay off on Sunday as they seek to break a run of four straight draws in this fixture in their favour ahead of the international break?
Match stats: Value in BTTS
The games these teams have played this season have been characterised by being relatively low-scoring affairs. Combined, they have played 19 times this season and only Sevilla’s 2-2 draw with Las Palmas on the opening day of the season has produced more than three goals.
Recent history between these clubs also points to this being a relatively tight affair. Each of the last four derbies have finished level, with three 1-1 draws and a single scoreless tie. There is little doubt that Betis are the more explosive offensive side, despite scoring exactly the same number of La Liga goals as their hosts with eight. They have created 13.2 xG in Spain’s top-flight this season compared to the 9.7 of Sevilla. A lack of efficiency from strikers Ez Abde and Vitor Roque has cost them thus far.
Will this be the day things click for Betis? Having underperformed in relation to their xG in every single La Liga game this season. One market worth looking at is both teams to score. Each of Sevilla’s last three La Liga matches have seen goals at both ends, while this has been the case in three of the last four of Betis.
Also look for a high corner count. Betis have won 52 this season, only one fewer than La Liga’s most prolific corner winners Barcelona, while Sevilla have earned 47. With Betis conceding the fewest corners, consider them to win more than their opponents.
Prediction:
Both teams to score @ 1.8
Shots stats: Lo Celso at high odds
Dodi Lukebakio is the player that Sevilla will look to in order to carry much of their threat. The Belgian has two goals for the season but has a bundle of shots to his credit and with 2 xG for the season has close to double anyone else in the home side’s regular XI.
He did not start either of these fixtures last season but with 3.16 shots and 1.26 shots on target per 90, the 27-year-old is clearly one to watch. At 1.36 to muster one shot on target, he looks good value.
Offering arguably better value is left winger Chidera Ejuke, who has looked dangerous in the past couple of games and has started to force his way into the coach’s thinking. He has had two shots in both of his previous outings, hitting the target with all four of his efforts. Sitting at 2.0 for one or more shots on target, he looks a big price.
As for Real Betis, Giovani Lo Celso may have five of their eight goals this season in La Liga, but he certainly does not dominate their shooting stats. He has, however, only started the last four games, scoring his goals in these and managing at least two shots on target in each. His price of 1.91 to have a shot on target is outrageous.
With 2.2 shots on target per 90, Lo Celso is comfortably ahead of Abde in terms of rate of efforts. The Morocco international, who is the starting forward, sits on 1.45. Vitor Roque on 2.22 has the highest shot-on-target rate but after starting in midweek will surely be on the bench.
Where Abde is stronger than Lo Celso is in overall volume of shots. He posts 3.55 per 90 compared to his colleague’s 2.93. In his last nine Betis matches, he has managed at least two shots, which is on offer at 1.22 – a nice addition to a bet builder.
Predictions:
Chidera Ejuke 1 or more shots on target @ 2.0
Giovani Lo Celso 1 or more shots on target @ 1.91
Ez Abde 2 or more shots @ 1.22
Fouls stats: Agoume to cut Lo Celso down
There have been fireworks in this derby over the past couple of seasons. The last meeting between the teams saw eight cards dished out, while there was a spectacular 2022/23 clash that saw 13 cards, including three reds, handed out in a brutal game. In all these games, Sevilla have committed more fouls, never dipping below 14.
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This term, these clubs average 12.9 and 12.6 fouls per 90, with Sevilla posting the slightly higher count. The hosts, though, average 3.38 cards per match compared to Betis’ 2.13. Equally, Betis have drawn 114 fouls, which is second in the league only to Getafe. This points to the home side picking up more cards.
Sevilla do not have any one player dominating their foul count. Rather, a physical approach is their vibe, with Lucien Agoume leading the way on 2.15 per 90 while five others who have played at least 290 minutes have over 1.5 fouls per 90. These are Djibril Sow, Isaac Romero, Marcao, Peque and Saul Niguez.
Lo Celso is the man drawing fouls for Betis operating in the No. 10 role. Already this season he has 24 to his name, which is the second-highest tally in La Liga and comes out at a rate of 5.85 per match. He has been fouled at least four times in each start. Given he is set to operate in Agoume’s zone in this game, expect another sizeable tally of fouls drawn.
With Sevilla consistently posting a higher foul count, the value is not quite the same on the visiting side. Marc Roca, who commits 2.03 fouls per 90, by far the highest of the visitors’ regulars, is on offer at just 1.05 to commit one foul, but he did give away three in this match last season. This is available at 2.0.
Pablo Fornals would be better value at 1.36 to commit 1 or more fouls if he were to start, but after featuring from the outset in Poland, that appears unlikely. He has committed one foul in five of his last six league outings.
Predictions:
Lucien Agoume to commit 2 or more fouls @ 1.36
Giovani Lo Celso to be fouled 3 or more times @ 1.67
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Pressinphoto / Icon Sport