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Columbus Crew v New England Revolution Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

October 12, 2024
Tactical Preview, MLS Analysis

Columbus Crew v New England Revolution

Kick Off: Sunday 13th October, 00:30

Competition: MLS

Watch Live: Apple TV

 

MLS rages on despite the international break, with Columbus Crew facing the New England Revolution as the home side attempt to build momentum before the play-offs.

 

Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami have proven untouchable at the top of the standings and have already won the Supporters’ Shield for the best regular season record, but Columbus have secured second spot with two matches to play.

 

 

New England, meanwhile, are playing out the season for nothing more than pride. The Revs are seeking to avoid bottom spot and can achieve that with an unlikely win on the road.

 

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Match stats: Columbus to win a high-scoring affair

 

Columbus are priced at just 1.33 to get the victory in this encounter, and given they have most of their key players available for this encounter, look good value to get the win.

 

 

They are coming off a run of games in which they have picked up three wins in five, overcoming the Philadelphia Union 3-2 in a thriller last time out. Indeed, Columbus’ recent matches have all been packed with goals. Their last four games have produced a total of 21 strikes, with each contributing at least four towards that tally.

 

Even in the recent defeat to Inter Miami, Columbus actually generated a greater xG than their opponents (1.9-1.2). 

 

They are an attack-minded side, and the fact that they second place in the Eastern Conference is only likely to emphasise that fact as they can play with freedom. It is worth noting that top scorer Cucho Hernandez is on international duty.

 

Although they have conceded only 38 goals this season, ten of these have come in their last four, and with their top two goalkeepers as well as regular defender Mohamed Farsi away on international break, they will again be vulnerable at the back in this game.

 

New England, meanwhile, have been leaking goals badly. In their last eight MLS outings, they have conceded at least two goals. They have conceded at least two goals in each of their last three away trips.

 

 

Unsurprisingly, this means that the Revs are not in sparkling form by any means. Indeed, they have lost three of their last four and each of their last three on the road. 

 

This record, allied to the fact that Columbus won the last meeting between these clubs 5-1 in Greater Boston, suggests that there is another home win on the cards, with a sizeable goal haul coming to boot.

 

Prediction:

Columbus @ 1.33

Over 3.5 goals @ 2.0

BTTS @ 1.57

 

Shot stats: Rossi to carry the Crew, Vrioni to threaten for the Revs

 

Cucho dominates Columbus when it comes to shooting. The 25-year-old Colombian has had an astonishing 125 shots this season at a staggering 5.48 per 90 minutes. Without this leading light, who is likely to lead the way for the home team?

 

 

Diego Rossi is the likely answer. What he lacks in shot volume, he almost makes up for in terms of accuracy, with 45% of his efforts hitting the target. Of the last 22 MLS matches he has played, he has worked the opposing goalkeeper on 18 occasions – an impressive strike rate of 81.8% games ending with him hitting the target. He also scored last time out against New England, when he had four shots, two of which were on target.

 

Christian Ramirez is the other name to look out for. He has had at least two shots in five of the six games he has started this season as a centre-forward, hitting the target at least once in the same number of fixtures. At 1.22, he is an option on a bet builder, but it’s worth bearing in mind that he has only had multiple shots on target in four matches this season.

 

One curiosity from the previous match was that centre-backs Steven Moreira and Rudy Camacho both managed a shot on target. They have five between them this season, and with the former priced at 3.75 to repeat the trick, the value is not there to back a repeat.

 

 

For the guests, Giacomo Vrioni represents clearly the biggest threat. He posts 3.29 shots per 90 this season, with 1.32 hitting the target. He was effective in the last meeting between the clubs, with six efforts, half of which found the frame. At 1.57 to have a shot on target here, he looks good value having managed one shot on target in ten of his last 13 MLS away games.

 

Predictions:

Christian Ramirez to have 3 or more shots @ 1.4

Giacomo Vrioni to have 3 or more shots @ 2.0

Giacomo Vrioni to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.57

Foul stats: Polster and Nagbe in a midfield battle

 

Columbus and New England are among MLS’s cleanest teams, so it would be surprising if there was to be a high card count in this match.

 

 

The Crew, for example, have only received 47 cards this season. This is five fewer than any other team, although with five red cards, they are among the league leaders in this regard. New England have received 68 cards, with four reds.

 

This low card count is reflected in a low foul count among both clubs. Columbus are particularly clean. They have given up only 267 fouls this season. MLS’s next best team in this regard is the LA Galaxy on 310 – nearly 20% more.

 

On the other hand, Columbus draw the most fouls in the whole league on 433 – 13.5 per game. They draw the eighth-most cards from their opponents, suggesting a price on New England to pick up most cards at 1.83 is strong value.

 

Columbus have their leading foul winners, Darlington Nagbe and Rossi, available further pointing to New England having a difficult match from a disciplinary perspective.

 

 

Nagbe will go head-to-head with Matt Polster and Mark-Anthony Kaye, who give up 1.81 and 1.79 fouls respectively. With both priced at 1.73 to commit two or more fouls, they represent arguably the best value in the Fouls Market. 

 

Among Columbus’ perspective, central midfielder Nagbe and Dylan Chambost are liable to commit more fouls than usual as they go up against Carles Gil, who is winning 2.17 fouls per 90. Nagbe is a massive 4.33 to commit two or more fouls and Chambost is 4.5, with the pair 1.67 and 1.73 to commit one foul or more respectively.

 

Nagbe has committed a foul in four of his last seven games and seems the stronger bet compared to the more attack-minded Chambost. 

 

Predictions:

Matt Polster to commit 2 or more fouls @ 1.81

Darlington Nagbe to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.67

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Emilee Chinn / Getty Images

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