Roma v Lazio Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Roma v Lazio
Kick Off: Sunday 5 January, 19.45 GMT
Competition: Serie A
Watch live: TNT Sports 1
The headline attraction on the opening weekend of 2025 in Serie A sees the two Rome sides competing in the derby when Roma host rivals Lazio. Lazio have fallen a little off the pace in recent weeks and will be looking for a big start to 2025, Roma have been very inconsistent this term and enter 2025 much closer to the relegation zone than the European places. Will Claudio Ranieri win his first Rome derby as boss of Roma or can Lazio pick up three points which could see them return to the title picture?
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Match Stats: Lazio to avoid defeat in a match where their corners are the focus
When you look at the recent head-to-head record between these two rivals, the immediate thing to notice is that goals generally come at a premium. The last five meetings between the two have had one goal or no goals at all, but whether that trend holds up remains to be seen, because these sides aren’t as reliable defensively as their managers would like them to be and there is no shortage of attacking talent on show here.
With that in mind, it makes more sense to leave the goal angle alone and focus on the strengths of these two sides. Roma might still be a work in progress under Ranieri, but to be fair to him and them they have won their last two home games emphatically, albeit to bottom half sides.
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Lazio have suddenly run into a bit of inconsistency but they have only lost 2 of their last 10, one of which was to the impressive Inter Milan, and they have won 7 of those games. Roma look like a side for whom this derby might come early with some repair work needed to areas of their squad in January and therefore the best bet could well be for Lazio to avoid defeat, something they have done in 8 of their last 10.
There is just a bit more about them in attacking areas to get something from this game. However, the big difference between these two sides is the corners they win. Roma have 72 corners in 18 Serie A matches this term while Lazio have 97 in their 18 so the light blues win on average a nudge under 1.5 corners per game more than Roma.
That is something which might hold up because Lazio are likely to be the more cohesive team in attack and while Roma might have more of the ball, the better attacking threat could come from Lazio. They are 2.2 to win the most corners here which appeals, as does the 2.0 on over 4.5 Lazio corners, a line where they only need to perform to their average to cover.
Predictions:
Lazio/draw double chance @ 1.50
Lazio most corners @ 2.20
Lazio Over 4.5 corners @ 2.00
Shot Stats: Attacking stars can get among the shots
The good thing about this match is there should be lots of attacking players on the pitch which should lead to a few shot selections being able to land.
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If we look at the home side first, no player in their ranks has more shots on target per 90 minutes in Serie A this season than Paulo Dybala. The Argentina international averages 1.4 shots on target per 90 this term and therefore the 1.50 on him having another here appeals. He is likely to be on set plays too, so hitting the target is very possible.
His teammate, Stephan El Shaarawy has an average 2.3 shots per 90 for Roma this season and with him playing in the pockets where he should be able to let fly, the 1.44 for 2 shots or more in this match appeals too.
Taty Castellanos also looks a good option to take more than 2.5 shots in this game. The former New York City FC striker averages 4.4 shots per 90 in Serie A this season and his mobility might cause issues for the ender statesmen in the Roma defence. It shouldn’t be asking too much for the Argentine to have three shots here.
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Predictions:
Paulo Dybala – Over 0.5 shots on target @ 1.50
Stephan El Shaarawy – Over 1.5 shots @ 1.44
Valentin Castellanos – Over 2.5 shots @ 1.40
Card stats: Midfield battle can lead to regular card receivers picking up a booking
If we expect a feisty and competitive derby, especially in the middle of the park, two players standout as prime booking candidates.
Nicolo Rovella has a ridiculously high seven yellow cards this season so he is never too far away from the attention of the referee, and with the game likely to be played in the area of the pitch that the midfielder will be occupying, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his regular level of fouling (1.4 per 90 minutes on average) leads to another yellow card.
On the other side, Manu Kone has four yellow cards, the latest of which was picked up in the match against AC Milan last time out. He is another feisty campaigner in the centre of the pitch and Lazio have more than enough talent to force a mistimed tackle out of the Roma man.
Kone was only on the pitch for 46 minutes against AC Milan but still managed to pick up a card and with a longer role expected in the absence of Bryan Cristante, Kone looks primed to receive another here.
Predictions:
Nicolo Rovella to be booked @ 2.60
Manu Kone to be booked @ 2.25
By: AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Image Photo Agency / Getty Images
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