Predicting the race for European places in the Premier League
Liverpool might be cruising at the top of the Premier League table, but there’s a fierce race behind them for the European spots.
Nottingham Forest, Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, and Brighton are all targeting European qualification of some form. Fulham and Brentford might harbour similar ambitions, too.
Champions League teams
Liverpool are cruising atop the Premier League table with a six-point lead and a game in hand at the time of writing. It’s no surprise they are the overwhelming favourite to win the Premier League in the latest football odds at 1/4. The Reds are a lock for a top-four place.
While Arsenal have some ground to make up in the title race, they are also expected to claim a top-four berth this term.
The two teams are among the favourites in Champions League betting this season and will be competing for the most prestigious trophy in European football in 2025/26.
The final two spots are occupied by Manchester City and Nottingham Forest, but the race is wide open.
Ederson’s 5️⃣ @premierleague assists 🧤🎯 pic.twitter.com/OJVOaQvoT2
— Manchester City (@ManCity) January 28, 2025
A 5-0 defeat at the hands of Bournemouth might signal the end of Forest’s improbable run. City, though, are looking formidable once again after demolishing Chelsea 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium. There’s likely only one Champions League place up for grabs as February begins.
Villa have struggled following Champions League matches, so they’re unlikely to sustain a push. Chelsea have slumped massively in recent weeks, with only one league win since 15th December.
Newcastle and Bournemouth are the two strongest candidates for fourth place. It would be foolish to write off the Cherries, particularly with their exceptional underlying numbers, but do they really have what it takes to sustain this form?
Enzo reacts to our defeat. #CFC | #MCICHE pic.twitter.com/kkzVdS91wZ
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) January 25, 2025
Newcastle, meanwhile, are led by potential PFA Player of the Year Alexander Isak. Their defence has quietly been rock-solid. The Magpies should be the favourite for Champions League qualification ahead of a struggling Chelsea side.
Europa League battle
Bournemouth and Chelsea are the strongest candidates for fifth and sixth, providing Newcastle sneak into the top four. As was the case last season, it’s probable the Premier League will have two Europa League places and one Conference League berth.
Villa and Brighton are three and six points, respectively, behind Chelsea and Bournemouth (both on 40) at the time of writing. Having collected six of a possible 21 points after Champions League fixtures this season, the knockout rounds are going to further damage Villa’s chances of qualifying for European competition next season.
Arsenal and Liverpool are the only teams to have lost fewer matches than Brighton this term. They have performed well on the road, and we expect their home form to improve in the second half of the campaign. The Seagulls have a clear route to qualifying for the Conference League.
Fascinating contest
The title race looks like a foregone conclusion barring a meltdown from Liverpool or a surprising run of form from Arsenal. Behind Arne Slot’s team, though, the league is as competitive as ever.
With Tottenham, Manchester City, and Manchester United underachieving, it’s given us some much-needed variety in the top eight.