Lazio v Hellas Verona Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Lazio v Hellas Verona
Kick Off: 19:45
Competition: Serie A
Watch Live: DAZN
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Lazio welcome Hellas Verona as they look to bounce back from their opening day defeat at the hands of Cesc Fabregas’ Como. Hellas Verona, meanwhile, drew their opening game of the season against Udinese.
Match Stats: Response expected from Lazio
Lazio have reappointed Maurizio Sarri who was at the club a few years ago, they’re looking to bounce back from a poor domestic season in which they missed out on European football for the first time since Sarri’s tenure at the club.
Sarri would have been disappointed with Lazio’s performance against Como. I say this because his side only had 37% of the ball which, for a Sarri side, is unacceptable. Sarri wants his side to control the ball and build through the thirds. It was the brilliance of Como that allowed them to control the game, Como are much further along in their project with Fabregas compared to Sarri who is starting from square one.
Lazio only lost three of their 19 home games last season, but the main issue with Le Aquile was that they drew nine of these games, which is a record that Sarri will have to correct if they are to have a more fruitful domestic campaign this time around.
Hellas Verona lost 11 of their 19 away games in Serie A last season, conceding 30 goals across these games. This is a record that should encourage Lazio, especially seeing as Lazio came away winners in both meetings between these sides last season, netting five goals across these games.
Predictions –
- Lazio to win @ 1.40
- Lazio 2+ goals scored @ 1.57
Shot Stats: Castellanos the player to watch
Castellanos was Lazio’s top scorer last season, alongside Pedro, with 10 goals in Serie A. He didn’t really get a chance in Lazio’s 2-0 defeat to Como, but should get more opportunities here in Lazio’s first home game of the 25/26 Serie A season.
Castellanos is on penalties for Lazio and his shot volume from last season really stands out. The Argentine had 108 shots across his 29 Serie A appearances last season (4.06 per 90), with 41 of these attempts finding the target.
You could certainly put together an argument to suggest that Castellano should have scored more goals in Serie A last season with such a high shot volume, his personal xG was only 11.4, so he only slightly underachieved.
Castellanos also maintained an average of 1.02 chances created per 90 in Serie A last season, with this record resulting in three assists.
Predictions –
Castellanos 2+ shots on target @ 1.83
Castellanos to score anytime @ 2.20
Castellanos to score/assist @ 1.73
Card Stats: Both sides capable of high card counts
As I mentioned earlier, Sarri’s footballing philosophy is centred around his side having as much of the ball as possible. He didn’t get that against Como, but he should see his side dominate the ball here. Hellas Verona had the lowest possession average in Serie A last season (38.4%).
Hellas Verona didn’t top many charts in Serie A last season and are expected to be in a relegation battle this campaign, but they did lead the Serie A ranks when it came to red cards (10), and intriguingly, only Lazio (89) picked up more cards than Hellas Verona in the Italian top flight last term.
There were four cards produced in this fixture last season, which reflects the aggressive nature of these sides, both Lazio and Hellas Verona received two cards in that game.
Predictions –
Both sides to receive 2+ cards
Hellas Verona to receive a red card
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Silvia Lore – Getty Images
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