Vasco v Fluminense Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Check out today’s picks, with updated betting tips for the week, by visiting my website Apostas e Palpites.
Match Odds: Correct Score Prediction
Vasco v Fluminense is a state rivalry match in Rio de Janeiro valid for the first leg of a two-game series that will determine which team advances to the Copa do Brasil final. Vasco is on a trueroller coaster of emotions in the 2025 season. After the euphoria of qualifying for the Copa do Brasil semifinals and a run of 4 straight wins in the Brasileirão, the Cruzmaltino now faces a tough stretch with 7 losses in its last 8 matches.
Vasco: The Brazilian Giant Set for Another Season in the Second Tier
One positive aspect of this downturn is that coach Fernando Diniz managed to rest nearly his entire starting lineup in the final round of the Brasileirão, already focusing on Thursday’s match against Fluminense. On the Fluminense side, the moment is one of excitement thanks to the team’s strong performances, especially at Maracanã. With only 1 loss in its last 10 matches, Fluminense heads into the Rio derby in great form.
The team’s main concern for Thursday’s match is exactly the opposite of what their rivals experienced this week. With a direct Libertadores berth still at stake in the final round, Fluminense had to field its starting lineup against Bahia, which may result in lower physical freshness.
Correct Score Prediction: 2-1
Fouls & Cards: A heated derby
A derby on its own already carries the promise of nerves on edge. When that clash is worth a place in a national final, things tend to heat up even more. These are two teams that commit a high number of fouls. If we exclude Vasco’s last match, when it fielded a reserve lineup against Atlético Mineiro, the team committed a total of 80 fouls in the previous 5 games, an average of 16 per match.
On Fluminense’s side, that number is 67, but if we consider only the away matches, there are 83 infractions in the 5 most recent rounds as the visiting team, an average of 16.6.
Martinelli to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.50
Philippe Coutinho 2+ fouls won @ 1.61
Over 4.5 cards @ 1.72
Goalscorers: Attention to Vasco’s defense
Vasco has conceded a high number of goals — a recurring side effect experienced by Fernando Diniz’s teams. Even excluding the most recent match against Atlético Mineiro, the numbers still raise concern: the team allowed 14 goals in the 7 previous games, an average of exactly 2 goals conceded per match.
Fluminense has a productive attack, though that is truer at home than away. As the visiting side, the team is expected to adopt a more cautious approach, knowing it will decide the spot in the final in front of its fans. Even so, Agustín Canobbio and Luciano Acosta stand out as dangerous players.
Canobbio scored 3 goals in 6 matches in this Copa do Brasil, while Acosta comes off 2 assists and 1 goal in his 6 most recent games. Vasco knows how important it is to secure a win in this match and relies on Philippe Coutinho, who has 3 goals in 8 Copa do Brasil games, and on young star Rayan, who found the net 3 times in his last 5 matches.
Rayan Vitor 1+ shots on target @ 1.36
Agustín Canobbio 2+ shots @ 1.40
Luciano Acosta to score or assist @ 2.00
By: @APalpites
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Thiago Ribeiro/AGIF