Barcelona v Espanyol Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Barcelona v Espanyol
Kick Off: 17:30, Saturday 11th April
Competition: La Liga
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Barcelona welcome Espanyol as they look to strengthen their bid for the La Liga title after gaining some ground on Real Madrid last week. Barcelona did fall to a 2-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League during the week, mainly due to Pau Cubarsi’s red card, but shouldn’t need much motivation to pick themselves back up here.
Espanyol have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions, and haven’t fared too well against Barcelona in recent seasons – losing each of the last four meetings between the sides. They’ve also only managed to win four of their 15 away matches in La Liga, netting just 18 goals, which is hardly a scoring power that will trouble Barcelona too much.
Match Stats: Barcelona strong at home
Barcelona have maintained a perfect home record in La Liga this season, being the only side across Europe’s top five leagues to do so. They’ve won all 15 of their matches in front of their home fans, scoring 47 goals in the process (3.13 per game).
This instantly pulls me towards a Barcelona win, but also a high goal count in the game. Barcelona came away 2-0 winners when these sides met earlier in the season, and 3-1 winners when Espanyol last played Barcelona as the away side. That most recent meeting produced a combined xG of 3.54, suggesting that it should have produced at least one more goal.
Espanyol have not won a game this calendar year. Their last triumph came against Athletic Club back on the 22nd December. They’ve lost eight games in La Liga since that win, and it doesn’t look like getting any easier for them here against a Barcelona side that have been so tough to beat at home this season.
Predictions
Barcelona to win @ 1.25
Barcelona -1 handicap @ 1.67
Barcelona 3+ goals scored @ 1.8
Shot Stats: Rashford the standout
It can be tough to find value in attacking markets with Barcelona, as their numbers are so convincing that the lines set by the bookmakers are quite high. However, I think there is some value in taking Rashford for a few shots on target.
I thought Rashford was particularly impressive in Barcelona’s 2-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid during the week. He was bright before Barcelona went down to 10 men, managing four shots on target in the game from a shot tally of seven efforts.
Rashford has a rare opportunity from now until the end of the season to get a run of games in the side, with Raphinha expected to be sidelined until the final few weeks of the campaign. He hasn’t quite had that consistency with Barcelona yet, so I think it will improve his shot output, which is already pretty promising.
Predictions
Marcus Rashford 2+ shots on target @ 2.00
Marcus Rashford to score anytime @ 2.05
Card Stats: Keep an eye on Edu Exposito
Espanyol are averaging 13.7 fouls committed per game in La Liga this season, which is a tally that has led to 63 yellow cards (2.1 per game). I’d focus on Espanyol’s midfield for fouls and cautions here, mainly because of the influence of Pedri, but also because Barcelona will dominate these central areas and it will take quite a lot of work for Espanyol to pinch the ball back from them.
Only Pol Lozano (7) has picked up more yellow cards for Espanyol in La Liga this term than Edu Exposito (6), who is averaging 0.90 fouls committed per 90 across his 24 starts in the Spanish top flight. Expositio also collected three cards across his 12 starts in La Liga last term, so it’s clearly a consistent part of his game, which can be tested here by Pedri as his direct opponent – who is averaging 2.04 fouls won per 90 in La Liga this term.
Predictions –
Edu Exposito 2+ fouls committed @ 2.20
Edu Exposito to be shown a card @ 3.60
By: @AndysBetClubUK
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