Stuttgart v Dortmund Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Stuttgart v Dortmund
Kick Off: 17:30, Saturday 4th April
Competition: Bundesliga
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Stuttgart welcome Dortmund, with the home side looking to cement their spot in the Champions League positions, with Leipzig and Hoffenheim both in close pursuit. Dortmund are more secure in their position, sitting second in the Bundesliga, with nine points keeping them from league leaders Bayern Munich. These sides contested a 3-3 thriller when they met earlier in the season, and more goals are expected here.
Match Stats: Goals likely
This is often a meeting that produces goals. Four of the last five meetings between the sides in the Bundesliga have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals, setting the stage for another goal heavy clash.
This game means a bit more for Stuttgart than it does for Dortmund. The home side are in a bit of a battle with Hoffenheim and Leipzig for two Champions League spots, Stuttgart hold the advantage at the moment, but the gap between these three sides sits at just three points – so there is plenty still to be decided.
As I touched on in the introduction, the most recent meeting between these sides produced six goals as the teams played out a 3-3 draw. Looking a bit deeper at the underlying numbers from that game reveals a combined xG of 4.54 (2.99-1.55) from 30 shots overall.
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Predictions –
BTTS @ 1.4
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.4
BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1
Shot Stats: Stuttgart have more to play for
I always like to consider the motivation of a side when I’m betting on team or player shots. The underlying numbers are important, and notably strong for Stuttgart at home, but shots are best to bet on when you know that one side has slightly more to play for than the other.
Stuttgart are in a battle to finish in the Champions League spots, and may need all three points here to avoid being leapfrogged by either Hoffenheim or Leipzig, depending on results. They had 16 shots in the most recent meeting between the sides, and racked up 17 shots when Dortmund last made the trip to face them.
When it comes to individual players to back for shots, I’ve repeatedly come back to Bilal El Khannouss when watching Stuttgart this season. He’s an excellent player, and usually is pretty generously priced for shots. He’s registered six goal contributions across his 19 starts in the Bundesliga this season, while averaging 2.10 shots per 90.
Predictions –
29+ match shots @ 1.72
15+ Stuttgart Shots @ 2.00
Bilal El Khannouss 2+ shots @ 1.5
Bilal El Khannouss 1+ SOT @ 1.67
Card Stats: Tame evening expected
The initial league meeting between these sides saw both sides pick up one card, despite there being 22 match fouls in the game. This is sometimes down to the referee, but a look over the seasonal card and foul stats for both of these sides suggests that it’s more likely to be a tamer affair.
Stuttgart are only committing 9.70 fouls per game in the Bundesliga this season, with only five sides in the Bundesliga committing fewer fouls than Sebastian Hoeness’ side. They have received 53 yellow cards this season, which is the seventh highest tally in the Bundesliga, but they are not a very aggressive side.
The same can be said for Dortmund who have actually collected fewer cards than Stuttgart this term (48) despite committing more fouls. I think it’s better to focus on shots and shots on target for this game rather than fouls and cards, this doesn’t mean that the card count will be zero as there is still a competitive edge to this game – but it’s not likely to be a massive factor. There does look to be a bit of value in both teams to receive a card at 1.44, which only requires one card for each team – this bet landed in the last league meeting between the sides.
Predictions –
Both teams to be shown a card @ 1.44
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Mike Egerton – PA Images
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