Benfica v Porto Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Benfica v Porto
Kick Off: Sunday 10th November, 20:45
Competition: Liga Portugal
Watch Live: TrillerTV+
For the very latest expert football betting predictions, covering matches across every top European division, head over to Andy’s Bet Club. You’ll find several free tools to aid your punting, including cheat sheets, as well as a range of high value football tips.
Sunday sees two of Portugal’s biggest clubs clash, with Benfica hosting Porto at Estadio da Luz. Although third and second in the standings respectively, the two clubs have been given renewed hope of fighting for the title following the announcement that Ruben Amorim, the boss of Sporting CP, presently boasting a 100% record, will take over at Manchester United next week.
Porto’s sole defeat came against Sporting, while Benfica have dropped only two additional points in what promises to be a thrilling three-way battle for the title. But who will come out on top here?
Match stats: A tight game in prospect
Benfica have won their last six league matches but have shown some vulnerability against better opponents in recent times in the Champions League. Although they beat Atletico Madrid 4-0 with a spectacular performance in October, they have lost to Feyenoord and Bayern Munich in successive games at that level, suggesting there are weaknesses for a team like Porto to exploit.
They worked hard against Bayern on Wednesday. Although they lost only 1-0, the margin between the teams was greater, with Benfica having just 27% of possession and creating just 0.1xG. Porto are experiencing a similar tale. They too have won their last half dozen Liga Portugal matches but have found results harder to come by on the continent, winning just one of their four Europa League matches. Most recently, they lost 2-1 away to Lazio in a fiery midweek encounter.
The visitors are the more solid defensive team, having conceded only four goals all season, while they are also scoring at a very marginally better rate overall. Benfica’s home record, though, has been excellent. No team has scored more than the 18 goals they have netted, while they post a perfect record, having conceded only two goals.
Although Porto won this encounter 5-0 when the sides last played in March, only one of the previous eight was decided by more than a single goal, with five producing two goals or fewer. History suggests, then, that this will be a tight game.
While Benfica are rightly favourites, they look short priced for what should be a close-fought match. With 76 corners won compared to Porto’s 59 in Liga Portugal action this season, the hosts look better value in the Corner Match Bet market at 1.57.
Predictions:
Porto double chance @ 1.73
Benfica to win more corners @ 1.57
Shot stats: Veteran Di Maria can shine
No one takes more shots for Benfica than veteran Angel Di Maria, who has had 23 in Portugal’s top-flight at a rate of 4.11 per 90. This figure is fourth-highest in the whole league but is only just ahead of teammate Kerem Akturkoglu, who has 3.9 attempts per 90.
Akturkoglu has top scored in the league with five goals, yet three of these came in a single game against Rio Ave, while it’s also worth noting that the former Galatasaray player has been almost freakishly accurate so far this season, with 53.3% of his shots finding the target. His career average in league football is 38.6%.
Di Maria, meanwhile, scored the only goal in this fixture last season and had four shots overall. Other home players to monitor are midfielder Orkun Kokcu, who has been linked with Liverpool, who has had 19 shots, and Vangelis Pavlidis, who also has 19 shots and leads Benfica in shots on target with 11.
At Porto, Samu Omorodion may be winning the headlines following his fine European displays and subsequent call up to the Spain squad, but Galeno has been their standout performer in the league, with 23 shots, 12 on target and eight goals – all team-leading figures.
Omorodion outperforms Galeno in terms of shots per 90 with 3.4, yet his efforts tend to come in bursts when he has between three and six in a game. He is more spectacular, his Brazilian colleague is more reliable. Indeed, Galeno scored the first two goals in the 5-0 win last season and across the two fixtures against Benfica had eight shots, including four on target.
Another player to thrive was winger Pepe, who had shots on target in both games, including three (and a goal) in the landslide win. Finally, English forward Danny Loader has started the last three games and is posting 17 shots and nine on target at a rate of 2.70 and 1.43 respectively.
Predictions:
Angel Di Maria to have 3 shots or more @ 1.44
Samu Omorodion to have 3 shots or more @ 1.91
Galeno to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.63
Card stats: Nicolas Gonzalez one to watch
When these sides met last season, the referee was kept busy on both occasions, with a total of 15 cards dished out over the course of the two matches – fitting for such a competitive encounter. Equally, there were 29 fouls in the clash played in Lisbon, in which Porto were reduced to 10 men as Fabio Cardoso was sent-off early.
It remains to be seen whether this game will get quite as ugly, with many of the key protagonists from last season having departed. Benfica’s matches have seen the fewest fouls in Portugal’s top-flight by some margin as they have both conceded and won the fewest fouls in the division. Porto, meanwhile, also do not win many fouls.
Referee Joao Pinheiro, meanwhile, averages 4.93 cards per match this season, which suggests action in the cards market is possible. Florentino Luis is the runaway leader in the Benfica side when it comes to committing fouls. He has given away 15 already in the league, doing so at a rate of 2.17 per 90.
Perhaps the one to watch in terms of fouls for this match is Porto’s defensive midfielder Nicolas Gonzalez, who has given away 26 fouls so far this season. This puts him third in the whole league among fouls committed, with the Spaniard accounting for just under 20% of the fouls his team have given up.
With Orkun Kokcu operating in Gonzalez’s area of the park, there is likely to be a battle between the two. The Turk leads Benfica in fouls drawn in the league this season, with 13 at a rate of 1.76 per 90 – and expect this to go up at the weekend.
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Carlos Costa / AFP
18+ Gamble Responsibly