Celta Vigo v Real Madrid Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Celta Vigo v Real Madrid
Kick Off: Saturday 19th October, 20:00
Competition: La Liga
Watch Live: Premier Sports 2
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Real Madrid will attempt to keep pace with Barcelona in La Liga when they face a tricky trip to a dangerous Celta Vigo side following the international break.
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Los Blancos have had a tricky time of it lately but claimed an important win over Villarreal prior to the two-week break, during which they had the advantage of one of their key players in the form of Kylian Mbappe resting up.
Celta, meanwhile, similarly bookended the period prior to the pause with an important win over Las Palmas, which offered some relief after a run of one win in five.
Match stats: Ancelotti’s side face a travelling test
Real Madrid are 1.57 favourites to win this match, which given they have won the last eight matches between these sides, appears a healthy price. The last time they lost to Celta in La Liga was way back in May 2014.
But, could this run come to an end now? Carlo Ancelotti’s side have not travelled well this season, drawing three of their four away games domestically and suffering a 1-0 defeat in the Champions League in Lille. Only once this season have they even scored more than once on their travels, which came in a 2-0 win over Real Sociedad.
Celta, meanwhile, have posted a handy home record so far. Their sole defeat came via Atletico Madrid in a match they actually enjoyed the better opportunities in, recording 1.5xG to their opponents’ 0.6. And while the home side struggle to keep clean sheets, they nearly always score. Indeed, that encounter with Atleti is the only occasion this season they have failed to find the net.
Given that Real Madrid’s clean sheet against Villarreal was their first in six games and that they post ongoing defensive selection issues, the price on the visiting side does not look so attractive after all.
One market that does look attractive for Los Blancos is the Corner Market. They are 1.62 to record more corners than Celta, despite averaging 2.0 more per game in La Liga than their hosts. In five league matches, the Vigo side have only once won more than four corners; by contrast, Ancelotti’s side have done so in each away game they have played.
Prediction:
Celta Vigo (+2 handicap) @ 1.44
Real Madrid to win the most corners @ 1.62
Shot stats: Mbappe will want to make his mark
Kylian Mbappe absolutely dominates the shooting statistics for Real Madrid, with 39 efforts on goal in La Liga. This is 16 more than Vinicius Junior and an incredible 5.19 per 90. His accuracy is relatively poor and this translates into only 2.13 per 90.
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Importantly, the Frenchman has a point to prove after being involved in something of a media storm for travelling to Sweden to go partying last week rather than have a ‘mini pre-season’ as the press initially reported. He should come into this game firing and should be even more central since two of his key offensive teammates – Rodrygo, Fede Valverde – have been on international duty in South America this week.
The positive news for Los Blancos is that Vinicius Junior, who missed Brazil’s recent matches, is primed to be fit. He has 23 shots for the season in La Liga, though incredibly only four on target. He managed three alone when Madrid won 4-0 last season against Celta.
To this end, it might be time to see more from Jude Bellingham. Mbappe’s arrival has pushed the England star to a more peripheral role this season and there is little doubt that he has been less effective. Still, he has had at least two shots in his last five matches for club and country, though he only has three shots on target in La Liga this season.
Celta’s threats are less well defined. Veteran striker Iago Aspas leads the way with 15 shots for the hosts, with seven of these hitting the target. This is a rate of 2.14 and 1.0 per 90 respectively. Unfortunately for Celta, the man who managed shots on target in both games against Madrid last season is banned along with Ilaix Moriba after both were sent off last time out.
Borja Iglesias, Williot Swedberg and Anastasios Douvikas all post better ratios than the 37-year-old in both regards and make up a club of four players who are averaging over 1 shot on target per 90.
Predictions:
Kylian Mbappe to have 4+ shots @ 1.33
Kylian Mbappe to have 2+ shots on target @ 1.57
Foul stats: Camavinga and Vini Jr to the fore
Both of these clubs post a very low foul rate. Celta are giving up only 10.2 free kicks per game while they are winning 13.3, which is the second-highest figure in La Liga behind only Getafe. In contrast, Real Madrid have committed a measly 8.78 fouls per game, the second-lowest with only Barcelona posting a better figure, and winning 11.7.
The story in terms of cards, though, is rather different. Again, Madrid are second bottom of the pile with 16 cards across their nine games, yet Celta post 27 cards, including three reds, putting them fourth in Spain’s top-flight in this regard. This figure, however, is skewed by their latest match against Las Palmas, which saw them pick up 10 cards. They hadn’t been above three for a game prior to that clash.
So should we expect fireworks in this match? Moderately. Each of the games last season saw five cards shown, with the away team picking up three of these on each occasion.
Eduardo Camavinga was on the wrong end of some rough treatment last season when these sits met. He was fouled a total of seven times across the two games, despite being replaced in both. It should also be said that he committed six fouls, so the Frenchman was in the thick of the action. As he continues his return from injury, expect more of the same.
Meanwhile, Celta face the question of how to stop Vini Jr, assuming he proves his fitness. The Brazilian has already drawn 21 fouls this season at a rate of 2.59 per match. Oscar Mingueza and Javi Manquillo are the players likely to be drawn into the winger’s zone and, therefore, pick up a higher-than-usual foul count for themselves.
One of the hosts’ chief free kick winners in Aspas is banned, yet Douvikas and Swedberg post 4.36 a d 2.86 fouls won per 90 respectively. The latter, who plays off either wing, is more consistently able to win fouls, having picked up at least two in four of his last six appearances.
Predictions:
Eduardo Camavinga to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.36
Eduardo Camavinga to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.44
Williot Swedberg to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.80
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Quality Sport Images / Getty Images
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