Germany v Italy Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Germany v Italy
Kick Off: Sunday 23rd March
Competition: UEFA Nations League
Watch Live: Amazon Prime
For more expert football betting predictions for this weekend’s European football, as well as free-to-use betting tools, head over to my website, Andy’s Bet Club.
Germany host Italy having registered a 2-1 win over Luciano Spalletti’s side in the first leg meeting. The first leg was very competitive and could have easily ended in a draw but Germany found a way to rally after going behind early on in the game to produce two second half goals giving, them a slender advantage here. The winner of this tie will go on to play either Denmark or Portugal in a semi final tie to decide the finalists of the 2025 UEFA Nations League.
Match Stats: Germany imperious at home
Germany have been very strong at home in the Nations League this campaign, winning all three of their games by an aggregate score of 13-0. Whilst it is unlikely that Julian Nagelsmann’s side will be that dominant here, it certainly represents a tough challenge for the travelling Italian side who could be the side to break Germany’s defensive record seeing as they’ve scored in each of their seven Nations League games so far.
Germany could have the edge over Italy here in forward areas, the Italians are organised and play with some intricate patterns of play but are clearly missing that extra element in the final third which would elevate them to the status of their European counterparts. Germany do have this talent in forward areas with the likes of Leroy Sane, Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry and Karim Adeyemi who can really hurt the Italians here, especially if they are afforded space on the transition as Italy go hunting the tie.
Julian Nagelsmann should have the expertise to guide his side through it given their impressive record at home in the Nations League campaign. There aren’t many sides in the competition that can boast a better overall squad than Germany and even fewer that have the calibre of manager like Nagelsmann, who is arguably the best manager on the international scene.
Predictions –
- Germany to Win @ 1.75
- BTTS and Germany to Win @ 3.39
Shots Stats: Shots from midfield could be key for both sides
As mentioned above, Italy are not blessed with a wealth of options in the final third. Their main goal threat in Mateo Retegui is set to miss this game through injury which leaves Italy a bit blunt upfront and having to rely on efforts from other areas of the pitch.
The wing backs could be a source of these shots in getting forward to support the two strikers they’ll play in their 3-5-2 system, but the midfield stands out more for these attempts at goal. Sandro Tonali in particular was given an interesting role in the first leg in which he often made supporting runs to assist the two forwards and made runs in behind the German backline which does have a tendency to push quite high up the pitch.
These third man runs paid dividends with Tonali getting on the scoresheet in the first leg after just nine minutes, having two shots in total during the game. He’ll be just as crucial here if Italy want to remain competitive in the tie seeing as their front two aren’t the most prolific at this level.
Germany could also see a flurry of attempts from deeper positions, Leon Goretzka scored their winner from a corner after Tim Kleindienst had got the back on level terms shortly after the break. Goretzka had four shots in total during the first leg which again suggests that he is regularly asked to push forward for this German side with his physicality proving a real asset in the penalty area, especially against the back three of Italy who will be bullish in their approach.
Predictions –
- Sandro Tonali to have 1+ Shots @ 1.53
- Leon Goretzka to have 2+ Shots @ 1.83
Cards Stats: Plenty of fouls expected
The first leg meeting between these sides saw 34 fouls exchanged which indicates that we are set to be in for another competitive affair here. Germany committed 20 of these fouls, this isn’t likely to be as high in this game seeing as Germany are the home side but it certainly showed that Italy can get under the skin of Julian Nagelsmann’s side, which could end up being their best route to victory when considering the disparity in quality between the sides.
Both teams are averaging 12.0 fouls per game across the tournament as a whole, with both also exceeding this average in the first leg. This average is probably not truly reflective of the intensity we will see in the game here, both of these sides were not properly tested in the group stages of this competition which saw a lot of one-sided games.
The first leg only produced three cautions, two for Italy and one for Germany, which is quite a low total considering the volume of fouls in the game.
Predictions –
- Jamal Musiala to be Fouled 2+ Times @ 1.30
- Sandro Tonali 1+ Fouls Committed in the First Half @ 1.62
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Ronny Hartmann – AFP
18+ Please Gamble Responsibly.