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Girona v Barcelona Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

May 3, 2024
Tactical Preview, La Liga Analysis

Girona v Barcelona

Kick Off: Saturday 4th May, 17:30

Competition: La Liga

Watch Live: Premier Sports 1

 

For Bet Builder stats at your fingertips, head over to Andy’s Opta-powered Bet Builder stats tool, free to use on his website. Expert insight on the Premier League, SPFL, EFL, and major European leagues can be found in the football predictions section.

 

 

The La Liga title may be out of Girona’s grasp after a fairytale campaign in Spain’s top-flight, but they could yet finish second, and Saturday’s home encounter against Barcelona will give them an ideal opportunity to take a big step towards that goal. Barcelona also have much to play for, even if Real Madrid win earlier in the afternoon in a home encounter against Cadiz to seal the title.

 

Xavi’s side have worked hard to turn their campaign around after some difficult moments in its early weeks. A loss to relegate them to third in the standings with four matches of the season to play would feel like something of a setback as they attempt to rebuild towards next term. 

 

Girona, meanwhile, have been rocked by accusations from Ukraine of wrongdoing in the transfer that took Artem Dovbyk from Dnipro to Spain last summer. If an investigation takes place and the Catalan side are found guilty, they could potentially be relegated. The hosts, though, will be eager to put that to one side on Saturday to enjoy their unexpected spotlight.

 

 

Here is the best advice for your Girona v Barcelona Bet Builder.

 

Match stats: Girona capable of stretching Barca

 

Having been so secure for so long, Girona’s form has been wobbly in recent weeks. Across their last 13 games in all competitions, Michel’s side have suffered six defeats. 

 

It is worth noting, however, that while their level away from home has collapsed, they remain a force in front of their home supporters. Indeed, they have won four in succession at home, have dropped La Liga points in just three matches and have suffered defeat only to Real Madrid. Moreover, no team has scored more home goals this season than Girona’s 42.

 

Barcelona are no mugs on their travels, though. Xavi’s side have lost only away to Los Blancos but have had a habit of picking up draws on the road, six in total from 16 games. Additionally, Barca have been conceding freely of late. In their last three matches, they have leaked nine goals in total, albeit they have faced PSG and Real Madrid in this sequence. 

 

 

Nevertheless, the odds look strong on both teams scoring, reflected in the price of just 1.36 for this eventuality. Similarly, it would be surprising if there were not at least three goals in this encounter. Each of Girona’s last six in La Liga have had more than 3 xG.

 

Backing the hosts to avoid defeat at 1.53 might be the way forward for this match, though. They make for a formidable side at the Estadi Montilivi and this, combined with Barca’s high draw count away from home, points towards a hotly contested game.

Prediction:

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.4

Getafe (+1.5) @ 1.53

 

Shooting stats: Raphinha to continue hot streak

 

The chief goal threat for the home side is clear. Dovbyk has struck 19 times in La Liga this season, which is 11 more than Savio and backup forward Cristhian Stuani. Both scored when the sides met in Barcelona earlier this season.

 

This is reflected in the shooting stats, too. Dovbyk is clear of Girona’s other regular starters with 2.76 shots per 90, including 1.26 efforts on target. He does excel at testing the goalkeeper when he does get a sight of goal, with 45.5% of his shots going on target. At odds of 1.22 to muster one effort on goal, the centre-forward is not an especially appealing price, especially with the off-field drama surrounding him. 

 

 

Miguel Gutierrez is 3.5 to get a shot on target after doing so twice in the previous encounter. He has not had a single effort on goal in La Liga since January 6, though. There is arguably better value to be found in the Barcelona side. 

 

Ilkay Gundogan is especially interesting in this regard. He had eight shots when these sides previously met, including three on target and one that went in. He is 26.0 to have another three shots on target or 5.0 to score. At 2.1 to have a shot on target, though, the former Manchester City man is an interesting price.

 

Raphinha, too, has been in good form lately. He has at least one shot on target in each of his last four starts and has netted in three of these. Although he is typically only playing 65 minutes, odds of 1.44 still look fair. Backing him to score or assist at 2.1 is also a nice price given he has had a direct role in a goal in each of his last five starts. He also had an assist in the previous fixture between these two.

 

 

As for Barcelona goals, Robert Lewandowski is the man to watch. After a four-game scoring drought for his club, he exploded into life with a hat-trick last weekend and found the net against Girona earlier this term. 

 

Predictions:

Ilkay Gundogan to have 1 or more shots on target @ 2.1

Raphinha to score or assist @ 2.1

 

Fouls stats: Value on Garcia while Barca have ref complex

 

Neither of these sides are known for getting themselves into foul trouble. When it comes to giving away free kicks, meanwhile, only Las Palmas and Real Madrid give up fewer fouls than these clubs.

 

These numbers were reflected when they met in the Catalan capital earlier this season. There were only 17 fouls given away, 10 by Girona, and just three cards shown. Joao Cancelo was the only Barca player on that occasion to give away more than one foul. The Portugal international is the most prolific fouler among Xavi’s starters with 1.39 per 90 minutes. At 1.22 to give up one free kick or 2.1 to give away a couple, he is worth consideration.

 

 

From a Girona perspective, Eric Garcia was the chief criminal as he refused to go easy on his parent club, giving away four free kicks. He is only averaging 0.85 fouls per 90 but clearly, there is a motivation on the centre-back’s part to make an impression against his employers. At 1.53 to commit at least one foul or 3.6 to give away multiple, he is worth a look.   

 

As for cards, look for Barcelona to pick up more than their hosts. They have a fiery relationship with referee Alejandro Hernandez Hernandez, who has booked at least three Blaugrana players in each of the two meetings he has overseen this season. Hernandez Hernandez should add an element of chaos to this game. He averages just under 6 cards per game in La Liga this season, which is why the prices on the cards market are far shorter than might be expected from two relatively clean teams. 

 

Predictions:

Joao Cancelo to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.22

Eric Garcia to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.53

Barcelona to receive most cards @ 1.8

 

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Quality Sport Images / Getty Images

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