Holstein Kiel v Bayern Munich Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Holstein Kiel v Bayern Munich
Kick Off: Saturday 14th September, 17:30
Competition: Bundesliga
Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
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Following a trophyless campaign last term, Bayern Munich have made a strong start to 2024/25 and their next challenge will be a trip to face newly promoted Holstein Kiel. These two clubs come at very different ends to the spectrum in German football. Although the hosts were German champions in 1912, they have primarily been a second- or third-tier club in recent seasons.
Bayern’s glittering array of titles, meanwhile, needs little introduction, but after losing their grasp on the Bundesliga title for the first time since 2011/12, they are eager to get it back immediately. Can their run continue against the minnows?
Match stats: Internationals complicate FCB’s task
Bayern have a reputation for swatting away the weaker domestic teams, and even in finishing third last season still managed to top the league scoring charts with 94 goals in 34 games. They have started the current season in similar form, netting five goals across their two league matches, plus another four against Ulm in the DFB Pokal.
This is, of course, ominous for the home side, who have lost to Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg, giving up five goals and 4.80 xG. Kiel, however, have looked capable offensively, generating more than 1.0 xG in each of these games, while they will also hope that Bayern are suffering a hangover from having so many players away on international football – a headache that they do not suffer from.
There are other statistics to give Kiel hope early in the season. Bayern’s 26 shots is only average among Bundesliga teams and even ranks being the home side, who have had both more shots (30) and more on target (11). On the other hand, though, Kiel are giving up big chances. The total of 4.70 xG against them is the biggest in the league and something an attacking force like Bayern are well equipped to punish.
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FCB are logically strong favourites to win the match, yet their price of 1.20 is not particularly tempting. Indeed, backing the hosts with a +3 handicap at 1.40 looks a safer option given the complications that the guests are likely to have coming out of the international break while also getting ready to launch their Champions League campaign.
Prediction:
Holstein Kiel (+3) @ 1.40
BTTS @ 1.50
Shot stats: Gnabry one to watch
Serge Gnabry is overwhelmingly dominating Bayern in terms of shots this season. With eight overall plus four on target, he has twice the number of any of his team-mates in both these categories in Bundesliga play. Aiding him going into his game is the fact that he has not been away on international duty and should therefore be fresh. Expect this to be another busy game from the winger.
With Harry Kane sitting on just one shot on target this season, it’s hard to find value on the England captain, who won his 100th cap in midweek. Instead, Jamal Musiala looks like a good bet to hit the target at least once, having done so twice against Wolfsburg in Bayern’s previous away game.
Kiel’s shots this season have come from across their midfield and attack, with no less than five players having had at least three shots and four – twice as many as their opponents – mustering shots on target. Leading the way has been Japanese striker Shuto Machino. He has had at least two shots in all three competitive matches this season, hitting the target in each game that he has played on at least one occasion. Furthermore, he has scored twice, highlighting him as the biggest threat.
Benedikt Pichler has also mustered shots on target in each competitive game this season, including three in the Bundesliga. Every shot he has taken this term in league play has worked the keeper, and this run will inevitably end sooner rather than later. Both wing-backs, meanwhile, have been very active in an attacking sense. Timo Becker and Alexander Bernhardsson both have two shots on target and four overall across their two matches, so they are players worth keeping an eye on.
Predictions:
Serge Gnabry to have 2 or more shots on target @ 1.83
Serge Gnabry anytime scorer @ 2.30
Foul stats: Holstein will not hold back
Kiel have come into the Bundesliga with the idea of getting stuck in. Across the two matches they have played, they have picked up a league-leading total of 31 fouls, receiving four cards in each match. Expect more of the same against FCB.
Fouls are coming across the board. Seven players have already committed three or more this season, with Andu Kelati leading the way on four, with the midfielder not even having played 45 minutes of action before being dismissed as a replacement against Hoffenheim last time out. He is banned here.
With Jamal Musiala, who is operating centrally for Bayern this season, leading the way when it comes to winning fouls for the Bavarians on five, it is liable to be Kiel’s central midfield players who are put under pressure. Magnus Knudsson is the one to watch when it comes to committing fouls, then. He has given at least one away in the two Bundesliga matches he has played and is inexperienced at this level, making it all the more of a challenge.
When it comes to winning fouls, Pichler and veteran midfielder Lewis Holtby are the home side’s leading candidates. By comparison, Bayern are a relatively clean side. They have committed only 24 fouls this season, with just four yellow cards coming their way. Joshua Kimmich and Dayot Upamecano are the players leading the way on four fouls committed each, but it remains to be seen if Kiel can get the ball into areas to exploit this.
Aleksandar Pavlovic, meanwhile, is one to watch alongside Musiala when it comes to winning fouls. He has three this season and earned 1.18 per 90 last season. Used sparingly by Germany in the international break, he could get significant minutes here.
Predictions:
Holstein Kiel to receive most cards @ 1.91
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Luciano Lima / Getty Images
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