Koln v Dortmund Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Koln v Dortmund
Kick Off: 17:30, Saturday 7th March
Competition: Bundesliga
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Second-placed Dortmund travel to a Koln side that is inching closer and closer to the drop zone following a more positive start to the season. Dortmund have lost their way a little in recent weeks, crashing out of the Champions League to Atalanta as well as losing to Bayern Munich last time out, which opened up an 11-point gap between the sides at the summit of the Bundesliga.
Dortmund ran out 1-0 winners when these sides met earlier in the season, thanks to a 96th-minute winner from Maximilian Beier. Koln didn’t have a single shot on target in that game, while Dortmund managed to rack up 27 shots and an xG of 1.90.
Match Stats: Dortmund worth backing despite recent form
You can get 1.72 with some bookmakers for Dortmund to pick up all three points here, and I think that is a price worth taking. I think they’ve been priced slightly more generously than they would have been before those recent defeats to Atalanta and Bayern Munich, but their quality advantage over Koln is obvious, and I think it will show there.
Koln have only managed to win one of their last five matches across all competitions, with this victory coming against Wolfsburg – another side that is battling towards the bottom of the Bundesliga. Koln were dominated in the initial league meeting between these sides, and the 1-0 defeat was actually quite a flattering scoreline to Koln, given the gap in performance level between the two sides on that occasion.
Koln have only won four of their 12 home matches in the Bundesliga this term, so it’s not like their home displays are of a much higher level than their league position. Koln started the season well but have since drifted, and I think that will continue here against a Dortmund side that has already beaten them this season and that has lost just one of their 12 away matches in the Bundesliga this season.
Predictions –
Dortmund to win @ 1.72
Dortmund 2+ goals @ 1.80
Shot Stats: Maximilian Beier worth watching
You may remember Maxi Beier being linked with Brentford before the season started, and it’s easy to see why the Premier League club were interested in him, given his performances for Dortmund in the Bundesliga and beyond this season.
Beier netted the winning goal when these sides met earlier in the season, coming off the bench to score in the 96th minute – managing three shots, two of which found the target, in his 22-minute cameo. He also picked up a yellow card in that game for his celebration after netting the winner, and has emerged as a key player for Dortmund since that game.
Beier should get the nod to start here; he’s registered 10 goal contributions across his 15 starts for Dortmund in the Bundesliga this season, with only Guirassy (11) scoring more goals for Dortmund in the Bundesliga this season than Beier (7).
Predictions –
Maximilian Beier 1+ shots on target @ 1.5
Maximilian Beier 3+ shots @ 1.80
Maximilian Beier to score or assist @ 2.4
Card Stats: Modest count expected
Neither of these sides are too aggressive, or rank too highly for cards and fouls in the Bundesliga this season. Koln are actually the most passive side in the Bundesliga if we judge this metric from fouls – with Koln committing fewer fouls than any other side in the Bundesliga this term (8.10 per game).
That being said, Koln still picked up two yellow cards in their 1-0 defeat to Dortmund earlier in the season, and I think the current context will trump seasonal stats a little here with Koln likely to be a bit more reckless than usual, given how every point no longer carries significant weight as they try to pull themselves away from the drop zone.
I don’t think we’ll get loads of cards, but a few for each side suits the situation, and I would focus on caution instead of fouls, given the relatively low foul counts that both sides enter this contest with.
Predictions:
Koln 2+ cards @ 1.80
Both Teams to be Shown a Card @ 1.3
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / picture alliance