Lille v Metz Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Lille v Metz
Kick Off: 14:00, Sunday 24th October
Competition: Ligue 1
Watch Live:
For more Football Predictions for this weekend, including European Betting Tips and Premier League predictions, head over to my website, Andy’s Bet Club.
Lille welcome a Metz side who are still searching for their first win of the season in Ligue 1, having lost six of their eight matches so far.
Lille have made a stronger start to the campaign, avoiding defeat in six of their eight matches in the French top flight. The home side are heavy favourites to come away with all three points here.
Match Stats: Lille are heavy favourites
Lille are priced around 2/7 to pick up all three points, so we can expect them to dominate the game and fashion quite a few chances against the weakest side in Ligue 1 so far.
The 2/7 price may not appeal to you as it is quite a short price, so it is worth looking into the handicap and team goal markets for Lille here. Metz have conceded the most goals of any side in Ligue 1 this season (20), and have scored the second fewest goals (5) – expect a one sided affair.
Metz have also lost all four of their away matches in Ligue 1 this season, which is also where 15 of the 20 goals they’ve conceded this season have come (75%). With Metz being so porous on the road and Lille avoiding defeat in three of their four home matches in Ligue 1 so far, a dominant Lille victory is expected.
Predictions –
Lille to win @ 2/7
Lille -1 handicap @ 4/6
Lille 3+ goals scored @ 6/5
Lille to win to nil @ 3/5
Shot Stats: Keep an eye on Haraldsson
Lille have a lot of talented young players that are likely to go on to be very successful players in Europe, with Haraldsson being one of these. Similarly to D.C. United‘s Matti Peltola and Porto’s Oscar Froholdt, he’s yet another midfielder who’s gone from cutting his teeth in Nordic football to thriving in the biggest stages.
The 22-year-old has netted three goals across his seven appearances in Ligue 1 this term and has also contributed with a goal in the Europa League. He’s already just two goals away from matching his tally from last season, underling his development this campaign.
Haraldsson has taken 14 shots across his games in Ligue 1 (2.21 per 90), with these shots returning an xG of 2.82 which he’s managed to marginally exceed. I’d expect him to have quite a few chances against the weakest defence in the French top flight, that have conceded 15 goals across four away matches (3.75 per game).
Haraldsson scored and had three shots in Lille’s most recent Ligue 1 game as they ran out 2-0 winners over Nantes on the road. He can carry that momentum into this game.
Predictions –
Hakon Haraldsson 1+ shots on target @ 4/6
Hakon Haraldsson to score anytime @ 1/1
Hakon Haraldsson 3+ shots @ 6/4
Card Stats: Unusual pattern when it comes to cards
You’d usually expect weaker and relegation threatened sides to be high in the card and foul counts, given the obvious frustration that arises from failing to win games. However, the opposite is true here, with Lille sitting third in the yellow card count with 19 cautions – 11 more than Metz have picked up this season.
Lille also rank higher when it comes to fouls, with an average of 13.4 fouls committed per game. With this data in mind, there is value in the card and foul lines for the home side here, with many expecting them to dominate the game, resulting in more generous prices in these markets.
Lille picked up four yellow cards in their most recent Ligue 1 clash against Nantes, committing 15 fouls in the process. This shows their ability to post high foul and card numbers, despite being in control and eventually coming out on top in matches against lesser opposition.
Predictions –
Lille 2+ cards
Lille 3+ cards
Lille to be shown the most cards
Lille 11+ fouls committed
Lille 12+ fouls committed
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Scoop Dyga / Icon Sport / BSR Agency / Getty Images Sport
18+ Please Gamble Responsibly.