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Lyon v Lens Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

March 2, 2024
Tactical Preview

Lyon v Lens

Kick Off: Sunday 3rd March, 19:45

Competition: Ligue 1

Watch Live: TNT Sports 2

 

For Bet Builder stats at your fingertips, head over to Andy’s Opta-powered Bet Builder stats tool, free to use on his website. Expert insight on the Premier League, SPFL, EFL, and major European leagues can be found on the predictions section.

 

An entertaining encounter is expected to happen when Lyon meet Lens in Ligue 1 action, with both clubs pushing for European football next season.

 

When Pierre Sage took charge of Lyon, there was a very real threat of the giants crashing to an embarrassing relegation. The former academy boss has turned the team around, aided by a January transfer window in which no side in world football invested more heavily than OL.

 

The results have been positive, though. A seven-match winning streak was ended by a draw with Strasbourg in the Coupe de France in midweek, but OL managed to negotiate that fixture via a penalty shootout.

 

Lens, meanwhile, have not hit the heights of last season, when they finished second in Ligue 1, just a point behind PSG. Franck Haise, though, has found himself linked with the Liverpool job for a reason and continues to keep his side competitive.

 

 

Although the visitors have failed to win any of their last four, three of these were drawn over 90 minutes, while the defeat to Monaco last weekend only arrived after playing 120 high-octane minutes against Freiburg in the Europa League less than 72 hours before.

 

This promises to be an intriguing encounter between two of Ligue 1’s finest sides on their day.

 

Lens to force Lyon to buck recent trend

 

As the match odds suggest, this promises to be a fixture that is tough to call. Lyon are marginal favourites off the back of their strong form, and this is justified given that Lens have only four league away wins to their credit this season. With the guests having failed to win against a team in the top 10 this season, overcoming an in-form OL side is a big ask.

 

The competitive nature of this match, meanwhile, threatens to upset the home side’s recent trend of low-scoring games. Four of Lyon’s last six league victories have all been by a 1-0 margin, including successes over Marseille and Nice.

 

Indeed, three of their last four home matches against Lens have wound up with them winning by a single goal, but crucially these fixtures have all yielded at least three goals. The styles of the teams have not changed over this period and points to another attractive clash.

 

 

Equally, the last fixture between these teams was a thriller. Lens won 3-2, despite Jake O’Brien bagging two goals for Lyon. History between these teams suggests both teams will score. In six of the last seven between these clubs, both have netted. 

 

Expect a low corner count, though. Just 33% of Lyon’s home matches and 33% of Lens’ away fixtures are producing more than 8.5 corners. When these sides met earlier this season, OL won six flag kicks away from home and are priced at 2.63 to match that figure this time around.

 

Predictions:

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.91 on Paddy Power

BTTS @ 1.65 on Paddy Power

 

O’Brien carries an unexpected threat

 

When these sides met in Lens, there were unexpected scorers. O’Brien netted twice for Lyon while two of Lens’ goals, including the winner, were scored by wing-back Przemyslaw Frankowski. At 7.5 and 5.5 respectively to be on the score sheet again, these players are long shots but worth some consideration given this history.

 

There is interesting value in backing O’Brien, Lyon’s second top scorer with 3 for the season, to simply get a shot on target, though. The Lyon stats show that the centre-back posts 0.46 shots on target per 90 is priced at 3.0 to test Brice Samba.

 

Alexandre Lacazette is the most obvious threat for Lyon given he has 12 goals for the season. Carrying an injury after Strasbourg in midweek, there is no guarantee he will start or even be at his full powers if he does.

 

Beyond the obvious Lens scoring threat of Elye Wahi, who is on offer at 2.88 to score anytime, a nice price given he has netted in his last couple, the real value lies with attacking midfielder David Pereira Da Costa. His influence has grown steadily in recent weeks and after scoring four times in his last five starts, his price of 6 to score anytime represents incredible value.

 

 

The visitors’ No.10 offers more than 1 shot on target per 90, while his low average minutes are deceiving given he has played 78 minutes or more in four of the last five Ligue 1 matches.

 

Predictions:

Jake O’Brien to have 1 or more shots on target @ 3.0 on Paddy Power

Elye Wahi anytime scorer @ 2.88 on Paddy Power

David Pereira da Costa anytime scorer @ 6.0 on Paddy Power

 

Nuamah and Frankowski duel to provide fireworks

 

This fixture will take place between two of Ligue 1’s feistiest teams, with Lens behind only Monaco in terms of the number of cards picked up this term. Franck Haise’s side have seen 55 cards brandished in their direction in 23 games.

 

In the previous meeting, Lens saw two yellows and a red card to Florian Sotoca, while Lyon did not have a single player cautioned. OL, though, posted a higher foul count on 14, with Lens’ 11 infractions more severe. 

 

The potential duel between Facundo Medina and Alexandre Lacazette will be one to watch. Each committed 4 fouls in their previous meeting. Medina to commit at least 2 fouls at 2.25 is nice value given he posts 1.63 fouls per 90 on average.

 

On the Lyon side, look at winger Ernest Nuamah to give away free kicks. He averages 2.25 fouls per 90 this season and is therefore an incredible price of 2.63 to commit two fouls in this match. He is on a run of seven matches committing at least one foul in a game and has given away multiple in four of these fixtures. The only times he has not triggered this figure are when he has played under 80 minutes.

 

 

Nuamah won four free kicks against Lens when they last played and it will likely be Przemyslaw Frankowski charged with marshalling him. With the Pole playing out of position due to injury problems, this could lead to him giving up more than his usual 1.22 fouls per 90. He has committed 2 or more fouls in five of his last six Ligue 1 starts, including three on two occasions.

 

Predictions:

Facundo Medina to commit 2 or more fouls @ 2.25 on Paddy Power

Przemyslaw Frankowski to commit 2 or more fouls @ 2.80 on Paddy Power

Ernest Nuamah to commit 2 or more fouls @ 2.63 on Paddy Power

 

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / John Berry / Getty Images

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