Nantes v PSG Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Nantes v PSG
Kick Off: 19:45
Competition: Ligue 1
Watch Live: Amazon Prime
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PSG begin their defence of the Ligue 1 title having been crowned champions of France in seven of the last eight seasons. Luis Enrique’s side battled from two goals down to win the Super Cup on penalties against Tottenham in a prime example of their never say die mentality. They’ll have to do something they failed to do last season to win here though, Nantes held PSG to two 1-1 draws in the head-to-head clashes between the sides last season.
Match Stats: PSG look a little tired and struggled against Nantes last season
Nantes finished 13th last season but were one of the few teams that PSG failed to beat, Luis Enrique’s side may struggle a little again this time around when looking at how stubborn Nantes can be at home. Nantes’ home games last season were incredibly low scoring; they only scored 19 goals across their home games, but also only conceded 18 – only five sides in Ligue 1 conceded fewer goals at home than Nantes last season.
However, PSG’s attacking numbers on the road from the 24/25 campaign would suggest that they should be able to break down Nantes’ backline. PSG scored 47 goals across their 17 away games last season, two more than they scored at the Parc Des Princes. This more than healthy record suggests that PSG will be able to do what they couldn’t last season and register a victory over Nantes, though I do think Nantes can take advantage of their slight fatigue, which we saw in the Super Cup. I wouldn’t go looking at handicaps or anything of that nature, as this is likely to be a victory by a low margin for the Parisians.
Predictions –
Nantes to score @ 1.57
PSG to win and BTTS @ 2.31
PSG to win @ 1.3
Shot Stats: Some value with Nantes
As you’d expect, the front three for PSG are incredibly short in the betting market for shots here. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is the most generously priced for 3+ shots, but even he is priced at 1.4 for that outcome, which makes me want to look elsewhere for shot options in this game.
Mostafa Mohamed stands out for a shot on target, he’s Nantes’ striker, but only started 11 games in Ligue 1 last season due to injury. He scored six goals across these games whilst averaging 3.11 shots per 90 and 1.16 shots on target. 2+ shots is also a viable option for Mohamed with such a promising shot volume despite only playing 1245 minutes last season.
If you are set on backing PSG players for shots here, this is some value in other areas of the side. Joao Neves is priced at 1.66 for 2+ shots, while you can take Mendes for a single shot at 1.40. Nantes will sit in a low block, so it may be worth looking at some of the more unusual candidates for shots that could take aim from deep.
In terms of team shots, PSG’s line is set at around 20 shots – PSG had 24 shots against Nantes at the Parc Des Princes but only 10 when they played Nantes as the away side.
Predictions –
Mostafa Mohamed 1+ shots on target @ 1.61
Nuno Mendes 1+ shots @ 1.4
Foul Stats: Low foul count expected but PSG can get frustrated.
Nantes aren’t a side that are going to go after and press PSG, they’d much rather take their chances in a low block, which was an effective approach for them in both games against PSG last season. There were only nine fouls committed from both sides combined in the clash at the Parc Des Princes, with PSG having 84% of the ball, and then only 14 fouls committed combined with PSG having 75% of the ball when Nantes were the home side.
PSG did commit nine of the 14 fouls when Nantes were the home side, so it is worth looking at some potential foul options from the away side in this clash. Mendes and Hakimi are worth keeping an eye on to commit fouls here; the high flying full backs may have to commit fouls to keep Nantes in line when there are moments of transition and Nantes look to counter.
Predictions –
- Achraf Hakimi 1+ fouls committed
- Nuno Mendes 1+ fouls committed
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Icon Sport
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