Porto v Benfica Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Porto v Benfica
Kick Off: 20:45, Wednesday 14th January
Competition: Taca de Portugal, QF
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Porto welcome Benfica for a quarter-final clash in the Taca de Portugal, with the winner set to face Liga Portugal 2 side Torrense, who have enjoyed a historic run to the semi-finals of the competition.
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Porto have been one of the most impressive sides in Europe this season under the tutelage of Francesco Farioli, and have won their last seven matches across all competitions. Porto have only suffered two defeats all season across all competitions, with these losses being against Nottingham Forest and Vitoria.
Benfica haven’t been as consistent as Porto this season, but are always in with a chance of winning a knockout tie with Jose Mourinho in charge, who is a specialist when it comes to engineering wins in trying circumstances.
Match Stats: Hard to call a winner
Porto are priced as favourites here at 2.35, which is an accurate pricing when looking at the recent and seasonal performances of both of these sides. Benfica are priced at 3.00 to walk away with a victory, but only two sides have managed to actually beat Porto so far this season.
What is also notable about Porto’s record in Liga Portugal this season is that they don’t tend to draw many games. Francesco Farioli’s side have only drawn one game in Liga Portugal this season – which was a 0-0 stalemate against Benfica. Mourinho’s men limited Porto to just two shots on target in that game.
Benfica themselves were far too passive and only had four shots in the contest. It’s important that they carry more of an attacking threat here. Benfica have netted 17 goals across their eight away matches in Liga Portugal this term (2.1 per game), suggesting that they do have the firepower to cause Porto issues.
Predictions –
Benfica to score @ 1.40
BTTS @ 1.90
Shot Stats: Samuel Aghehowa worth keeping an eye on
Samuel Aghehowa has been crucial to Porto’s success this season, netting 12 goals across his 15 starts in Liga Portugal this term. He’s actually been outscored by Vangelis Pavlidis, who lines up on the opposite side here, though eight of Pavlidis’ 17 goals in the Portuguese top flight this term have come from the penalty spot.
By contrast, eight of Aghehowa’s goals have come from open play – making him Porto’s top scorer in Liga Portugal by some distance. His shot numbers are also really impressive, with the forward averaging 4.14 shots per 90 and 2.47 shots on target per 90 across his 16 appearances in Liga Portugal. He tops the shot and shot on target rankings for Porto this season, furthering the case for him to be a player to watch here.
Aghehowa also enters this clash in brilliant form having netted three goals across his last two matches against Santa Clara and AVS. This recent record should give him the confidence to strike again here, with Porto netting 16 goals across their eight home matches in Liga Portugal this season.
Predictions –
Samuel Aghehowa 2+ shots on target @ 2.10
Samuel Aghehowa to score anytime @ 2.50
Card Stats: High Card Count Expected
This is always a fiery affair and we saw that reflected in the most recent clash between the sides. That game saw 21 fouls, 15 of which were committed by Porto, and eight yellow cards. Porto were the main perpetrators of this aggression, with Farioli’s side picking up six of these cautions.
Neither side rank particularly high for their card count across the season, though that is more due to the general dominance that they hold over the rest of Liga Portugal. What is clear from the most recent meeting is that Benfica will attempt to frustrate Porto as much as they can, employing a potentially passive approach to goad Farioli’s side into a high card and foul count again.
Red card markets are also worth looking at here, a red card in the game isn’t priced too attractively, but if you’re looking for a long shot angle then you could back both teams to be shown a red card.
Predictions –
Porto most cards @ 2.00
Porto 3+ cards @ 1.70
A red card in the match @ 2.50
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Mondadori Portfolio
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