Racing v Flamengo Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
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Match Odds: Correct Score Prediction
The Racing vs. Flamengo clash will decide the first finalist of the 2025 Copa Libertadores. In the first leg, the Brazilian side won 1–0 at home and now faces the pressure of El Cilindro Stadium, Racing’s fortress in Buenos Aires.
On paper, Flamengo are heavy favorites, as their squad is packed with stars who not long ago were showcasing their talent on European pitches. Jorginho, Samuel Lino, Danilo, and Emerson Royal are just a few of the names that make up this brilliant lineup.
However, once the ball starts rolling, it’s safe to say Racing will make the most of their home advantage and try to put pressure on Flamengo to overturn the deficit from the first match.
At certain points in the game, though, the Brazilian team is expected to match Racing’s physical intensity — and even take control when they can dominate possession.
Correct Score Prediction: 1-1
Fouls & Cards: Racing ready to fight for every ball
In the first leg at the Maracanã, Flamengo had 72% possession and created the main scoring chances. That dominance forced Racing — naturally a more physical side — to commit three times as many fouls as the hosts, 18 to 6.
Racing is by far the most foul-prone team in the Libertadores, averaging 17 fouls per match. The second in that ranking is Olimpia, with 14.8. In the domestic league, Racing ranks sixth in fouls, averaging 13.6 per game.
In what promises to be a very tense match, we can expect plenty of fouls from the Argentine side, which traditionally plays a more intense brand of football than Brazilian teams. At times, the home team will also need to resort to fouls to stop Flamengo’s quick counterattacks.
For Flamengo, key players in drawing fouls include Luiz Araújo (1.4 fouls suffered per 90 minutes in the Brazilian Championship), Jorge Carrascal (3.0), Gonzalo Plata (0.9), and Samu Lino (1.4).
Racing over 2.5 cards @ 1.57
Bruno Zuculini to be shown a card @ 2.10
Racing most cards @ 2.20
Goalscorers: Set pieces are key
A high-scoring match is not expected. Both teams are likely to play cautiously to avoid leaving too much space, which should make the game tight in midfield, with plenty of challenges and limited goal opportunities. In this context, set-piece specialists could prove decisive. That includes Jorginho, Flamengo’s penalty taker, and Giorgian De Arrascaeta, who handles free kicks and corners.
Arrascaeta is in outstanding form, with 15 goals and 12 assists in 27 Série A matches — averaging a direct goal contribution per game. Similarly to D.C. United‘s Gabriel Pirani and Manchester City’s Rayan Cherki, Arrascaeta is a cultured playmaker with an eye for a final pass. Racing, meanwhile, will rely on the scoring instincts of Adrián Martínez, their striker who has already netted 7 goals in 11 Libertadores appearances.
Giorgian de Arrascaeta to score or assist @ 1.80
Jorge Carrascal 1+ shots on target @ 2.10
Adrián Martínez 2+ shots on target @ 2.62
By: @APalpites
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Buda Mendes / Getty Images