Real Madrid v Valencia Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Real Madrid v Valencia
Kick Off: 15:15, Saturday 5th April
Competition: LaLiga
Watch Live: Premier Sports Player/LaLigaTV UK
For more expert football betting predictions for this weekend’s European football, as well as free-to-use betting tools, head over to my website, Andy’s Bet Club.
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Real Madrid host a Valencia side that have found their way into form under Carlos Corberan who has engineered their move away from the relegation zone with there now being a four point buffer between Valencia and drop. At the other end of the table, Real Madrid face a battle to retain the LaLiga title with Barcelona opening up a three point lead at the summit of LaLiga after an excellent run of form.
Match Stats: Real Madrid have enough to come out on top
Real Madrid are imperious at the Bernabeu, winning 12 of their 14 games at home in LaLiga this season. It’s no surprise that Los Blancos boast the best home record in LaLiga with only Barcelona (40) scoring more goals on home territory than Carlo Ancelotti’s side (36).
Los Blancos came away 2-1 winners in the initial meeting between the sides thanks to a 95th minute winner from Jude Bellingham. It was a result that Madrid really had to battle for after being reduced to ten men in the closing stages after Vinicius Jr was given his marching orders.
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It is unlikely to be as complicated for Madrid here, Valencia are yet to win a game on the road in LaLiga this season from 14 attempts, drawing seven and losing seven of these games. Despite the improvement that the away side have seen since Corberan’s appointment, this is something that he has been unable to fix, most notably losing 7-1 to Barcelona away from home at the end of January.
Real Madrid enter this game as the superior side judging off the league table positions of these two teams as well as having the attacking quality to put away the travelling side who have not won an away game all season, it would be a big surprise if their first victory on the road came at the Bernabeu seeing as Madrid have the best home record in the entire division.
Predictions:
- Real Madrid to win @ 1.25
- Real Madrid -1 handicap @ 1.8
- Real Madrid 2+ goals scored @ 1.3
Shot Stats: Mbappe to continue his stellar season
There aren’t many better players in world football than Kylian Mbappe and despite splatters of criticism throughout the campaign, he’s had an excellent season in which he’s scored 22 goals across his 27 LaLiga appearances, whilst averaging 4.70 shots per 90 and 2.58 shots on target per 90.
He actually didn’t manage a shot in the initial meeting between these sides which is a very rare occasion for Mbappe when comparing to his average across the season as a whole. That initial meeting was during a transitional period for Madrid in the early weeks of the season where they were still finding a way to maximise the strengths of Mbappe, when integrated with the likes of Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo and Bellingham.
Mbappe netted a brace against Leganes in his most recent LaLiga fixture and can cause the Valencia backline plenty of problems here with his speed and ridiculously high shot volume. Valencia have one of the worst away records in LaLiga this season, failing to win any of their 14 games on the road and conceding 28 goals in the process (2.0 per game).
Predictions –
- Kylian Mbappe 2+ shots on target @ 1.4
- Kylian Mbappe to score anytime @ 1.73
- Kylian Mbappe 4+ shots @ 1.4
Card Stats: Valencia’s midfield stands out
Neither of these sides rank high when it comes to cautions and fouls this campaign but Valencia’s midfield stands out as a site where the referee will be busy given how dominant Real Madrid can be in this area of the pitch.
Valencia have collected 61 cards across their 29 LaLiga games this season (2.10 per game) whilst Real Madrid have picked up just 46 cards across the same number of fixtures (1.58 per game) – no side has collected fewer cards than Real Madrid in LaLiga this season.
The battle between Enzo Barrenechea and Jude Bellingham stands out here, Barrenechea has been one of Valencia’s best players this season in the middle of the park but also has collected the second most yellow cards in the squad (6) only behind Pepelu (7). Barrenechea is averaging 1.08 fouls committed per 90 in LaLiga this season but we can expect this metric to rise up against Jude Bellingham who has won 52 fouls across his 23 LaLiga appearances this season (2.46 per 90).
Predictions –
- Valencia to be shown the most cards @ 1.67
- Enzo Barrenechea 1+ fouls committed @ 1.33
- Enzo Barrenechea 2+ fouls committed @ 2.4
- Enzo Barrenechea to be shown a card @ 3.3
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Quality Sport Images / Getty Images
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