Albert Guðmundsson: Iceland’s Kraftmikill Forward
In 2021, Albert Guðmundsson signed for Italian club Genoa for a reported £1.5m following an underwhelming stint in the Eredivisie for both PSV and AZ Alkmaar. Guðmundsson failed to make headlines during his first two seasons in Italy, producing just one goal in the 21/22 Serie A season as Genoa finished 19th and dropped back down to the Serie B for the first time since 2007.
Guðmundsson stuck with Il Grifone and under the management of Alexander Blessin and Alberto Gilardino helped bring success back to the Stadio Luigi Ferraris producing 16 goal contributions as Genoa finished second, behind Frosinone, and returned to Italy’s top flight.
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Fast forward 12 months and the 26-year-old hasn’t slowed down yet as Genoa finished 11th, securing their top-flight status once again, with Guðmundsson beating his Serie B tally producing 14 goals and 4 assists, a tally only matched by his performances for Jong PSV during the 16/17 Eerste Divisie season.
But what makes Albert Guðmundsson such an exciting player? Why are Serie A and Premier League giants sniffing around the Icelandic forward? Well, let’s take a look at his underlying numbers and find out!
Player Profile – Albert Guðmundsson
Nationality: Icelandic
Age: 26
Date of birth: 15/6/1997
Club: Genoa
Position: CF/SS
Preferred foot: Right
Height: 177cm
Weight: 66kg
Contract Expires: 30/06/2027
Current Value: €30m
Main Position
Under current manager Alberto Gilardino, Guðmundsson has been utilised primarily as a second striker sitting behind ‘il Re tigre’ Mateo Retegui who produced nine goal contributions for Genoa in his first season outside Argentina following a €14.50m transfer from Club Atlético Tigre in the Summer.
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Tactically, Gilardino has set up primarily in both a 3-4-2-1 and a flat 3-5-2 with Stefano Sabelli and Aarón Martín tasked with providing the team’s width whilst Ruslan Malinovskyi, Morten Frendrup and Morten Thorsby provided solidity and creativity within the central areas of the park.
Genoa averaged just 44.1% possession throughout the season, sitting above only Empoli (44%), Sassuolo (43.8%), Cagliari (41.1%) and Udinese (39.3%). Genoa sat 13th in the league for total touches, and only Hellas Verona and Udinese produced fewer touches in the attacking third than their 46 per 90. We truly get an understanding of Gilardino’s approach when we look at Genoa’s progressive carry numbers (defined as carries that move the ball forward at least ten yards).
Sitting at just 468 progressive carries throughout the season, roughly 12 per 90, Genoa were the least progressive Serie A side by this metric during the 23/24 season and their 83 CPA (carries into the penalty area) is the lowest in the league by a whopping 26%.
Genoa attempted roughly 414 passes per 90 with a 76.5% completion rate, 2710 of these attempted passes were classed as long balls (around 17%) which ranks 7th in the league for a percentage of attempted passes sent long (Hellas Verona lead with 21.16% whilst Bologna attempted the least with just 10.85% of their 22504 attempted passes sent long.) Structure, rigidity and defensive organisation have been key to Genoa’s success this season.
Underlying Numbers
Guðmundsson is an extremely satisfying player to watch, smaller in stature, quick with his feet and capable of playing well-executed killer passes in the final third or driving into the penalty area before striking the ball with vicious intent into the top corner. He finished the Serie A season as the league’s fifth top scorer with 14 league goals, sitting behind only Lautaro Martínez (24), Dušan Vlahović (16), Victor Osimhen (15) and Olivier Giroud (15), he scored his 14 goals from just 11.33 xG an over performance of 2.67.
The Iceland international profiles as a low-shot volume forward, producing just 1.51 shots per 90 (ranked 28th in Serie A) with an xG/Shot of 0.21. Napoli’s talismanic forward Khvicha Kvaratskhelia leads the league for shots with 3.87/90 but takes much lower quality shows with an xG//Show of just 0.10, Sitting behind the striker has allowed Guðmundsson to contribute to Genoa’s output creatively as well with the 26-year-old leading the club for Key Passes per 90 with 2.44 (Aarón Martín sits second with 1.74).
His 0.12 assists per 90 ranks fourth in the club (Morten Thorsby leads with 0.16), however, he has regularly been let down by poor finishing by his teammates with just three assists secured all season from an xA of just under seven. This would have placed Guðmundsson joint sixth in the league this season for assists (Paulo Dybala & Rafael Leão lead the league with nine.)
The former PSV star finished top of Serie A for second assists this season with five. Second assists are defined as ‘the last action of a player from the goalscoring team, before an assist by a teammate’ alternatively referred to as the ‘Aleksandr Hleb’. Unsurprisingly, given what we know and have analysed about Genoa’s style of play, Guðmundsson does not stand out statistically for his ball-carrying numbers.
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His 2.44 progressive runs per 90 and 4.14 attempted dribbles per 90 both rank around 50th in the league although he does rank second in Genoa’s squad for successful dribbles per 90 (1.25) sitting only behind Junior Messias. He is an adept set pieces taker and has created several key chances for Genoa this season from corners and free kicks, possessing a fantastic ability to float the ball into the area perfectly for a rising defender to get on top of.
Additionally, he is a composed penalty taker scoring four times from the spot this season and missing just three penalties in his entire career (20 attempted) striking his penalties in a style familiar to those who have watched Ivan Toney in the Premier League over the past three years – one stride and shoot.
Naturally right-footed, Guðmundsson has demonstrated a strong level of capability with his left foot taking 22 shots this season from his weaker foot. His finishing is most effective from central areas in and around the penalty area, however, he did produce 5 goals from outside the area across the past year from an xG of just 1.93.
The former Knattspyrnufélag Reykjavíkur youth player produced 57 shots with 24 hitting the target and 14 finding the back of the net. This led to Guðmundsson scoring every 4.07 shots, a frightening conversion rate when you consider how little Genoa saw of the ball and what he could potentially produce in a more dominant side such as Inter or Juventus.
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Albert Guðmundsson – Final Assessment
Strengths
Work Rate – Guðmundsson embodies the key tool set required for Genoa’s success this season, he is functional with moments of quality but also he fights for every ball, drops deep to support his defenders and recovers possession where possible. Guðmundsson produced 3.6 recoveries per 90 along with 1.34 defensive actions per 90.
Finishing – As broken down earlier Guðmundsson is an extremely effective finisher, a penalty box goal scorer with fantastic off-the-ball movement. He has picked up several goals this season, including the winner in a 2-1 win over Hellas Verona back in April, through spotting the space in the box and attacking it effectively to get on the end of a spilt ball for the tap-in.
Breaking down his shot profile further we can see the majority of his shots fall in the 0.1 to 0.2 xG threshold and he has produced nine goals from shots within this area. Despite getting just 1.67 touches in the penalty area per 90, Guðmundsson managed to produce 7.89 npxG from 35 shots inside the area totalling 0.22xG/shot.
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The poorest area of Guðmundsson’s finishing, unsurprisingly, comes from shots after crosses, including aerial balls, as broken down further below Guðmundsson is extremely poor in the air and as well as being indicated by his aerial duel numbers this can be seen by Guðmundsson mustering just 0.3xG from headed efforts all season and mustering just one shot on target from seven efforts.
Weaknesses
Aerial Presence – A consequence of his smaller stature, standing at just 177cm but Guðmundsson won just three aerial duels all season, a woeful 11% success rate. Given his ability to take set pieces and his role at Genoa behind a target forward, this was not too problematic this season, however, this will realistically limit the clubs and coaches that the Iceland international will be capable of operating under effectively. Not a huge concern, however, let’s just say I don’t expect to see Guðmundsson playing Dycheball anytime soon.
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Grade
Before I advance with this final section, it is only fair that I credit Target Scouting for this scouting report grading system. Please check them out and support the awesome work they do at targetscouting.com. At the end of each player review, I will be giving a final grade on a scale of A1 to D – in order to give a consistent and clear final review of how I see Guðmundsson as a player now and where he could potentially end up. The scale is as follows:
A1 – Very good, could play higher
A2 – Strong potential to play higher
B1 – Good, strong player at this level
B2 – Potential to be a strong player at this level
C – Average for the level
D – Below average for the level
Albert Guðmundsson Final Grade – A2
Conclusion
Various reports and rumours have circulated about Guðmundsson’s future following a successful season in Italy. Inter Milan were previously believed to be the front-runner to secure the Reykjavík-born star’s signature, a move that makes sense given the structural similarities in Gerona and Inter’s set-up and the opportunity for Guðmundsson to provide quality cover, or a replacement for, Lautaro Martínez.
Juventus are reportedly also interested in securing the diminutive forward for the 24/25 season, however, in the past few days Tottenham Hotspur have appeared as a new club keen on signing Guðmundsson. Corriere dello Sport reports that Tottenham have already begun initiating contact with Genoa to secure the move but it remains to be seen if the 26-year-old would prefer Juventus/Inter to a switch to the Premier League.
We saw Ange Postecoglou utilise a range of names at striker throughout last season including Richarlison, Dejan Kulusevski and Son Heung-min all to mixed effect. We have seen from the Australian’s time at Celtic how effective a forward stylistically similar to Guðmundsson can be in Ange’s system with Kyogo Furuhashi tearing up the Scottish Premiership whilst under the guidance of Postecoglou.
I think Inter Milan would represent the best tactical fit for Guðmundsson and Serie A is well suited to his skill set, however, it remains to be seen what financially Inter will offer him and if he is comfortable with a smaller guaranteed pool of minutes with Martínez and Marcus Thuram firmly cemented as the clubs starting forwards. Be it North London, Milan or Turin, I don’t expect to see Albert Guðmundsson playing for Genoa again next season.
By: Liam Stewart / @LiamAStewart
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Image Photo Agency / Getty