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PSG V Lyon Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

April 20, 2024
Tactical Preview

PSG v Lyon

Kick Off: Sunday 21st April, 20:00

Competition: Ligue 1

Watch Live: TNT Sports 1

 

For Bet Builder stats at your fingertips, head over to Andy’s Opta-powered Bet Builder stats tool, free to use on his website. Expert insight on the Premier League, SPFL, EFL, and major European leagues can be found in the football predictions section.

 

PSG could be crowned Ligue 1 champions on Sunday should Brest fail to beat Monaco earlier in the day and then they overcome in-form Lyon at Parc des Princes.

 

 

Regardless of the outcome of this game, it is sure to be a festive atmosphere following the superb comeback win that the home side enjoyed against Barcelona on Tuesday. At one point, Luis Enrique’s side trailed the Catalans 4-2 on aggregate, yet the young Parisian side rallied well to record a 4-1 win on the night and a 6-4 victory overall.

 

Kylian Mbappe, of course, headlined the event. The striker sprang back into form to answer his critics with two vital goals. The first was a well-taken penalty, the second an opportunist strike. But PSG are not the only side coming into this game with a feel-good factor. 

 

Lyon are the form side in Ligue 1. Under Pierre Sage, they have been transformed from a side sitting rock bottom of the league and facing the very real spectre of relegation to one that has a genuine chance of qualifying for Europe.

 

Last weekend, OL showed their newfound spirit as they came from 3-1 down to beat Brest in a thrilling home clash. Ainsley Maitland-Niles grabbed the winning goal from the penalty spot in the 106th minute, his first Ligue 1 strike since moving from Arsenal last summer. 

 

 

Adding to the intrigue of this match, it is also a dress rehearsal of the Coupe de France final on May 25. Here is the best advice for your PSG v Lyon Bet Builder.

 

Lyon are underestimated

 

PSG are red-hot favourites at 1.36 to get the win, yet this is a match that Luis Enrique could well rotate his team in. The Spaniard has had a habit of doing so around Champions League games this season, and that could be asking for trouble against a Lyon side that has won 12 of its last 15.

 

OL were left embarrassed the last time these clubs met. They were thumped 4-1 at home by Les Parisiens, yet this is a very different Lyon side to the one that started the season. 

 

 

While a price of 6 on the visitors to get their third win in their last four visits to Parc des Princes represents a sizeable gamble, backing the visiting side on the handicap market is an attractive option. A price of 1.62 on Sage’s side with a two-goal start represents very attractive value.

 

PSG, remember, have certainly not been flawless at home in recent weeks. They have drawn three of their last five home league matches, while they have picked up only two wins in six if you include their defeat to Barcelona in the Champions League.

 

Both teams appear likely to score, meanwhile. PSG’s attacking threat is illustrated by the 65 goals they have managed across 28 Ligue 1 matches. Though Lyon netted just 38, they are warming up as an offensive unit, scoring at least two in four of their last five Ligue 1 matches.

 

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With Luis Enrique’s side having conceded in three of the last four, goals and excitement are likely in this game. 

 

Prediction:

Lyon (+2 handicap) @ 1.62

Both teams to score @ 1.57

 

Lacazette to show he’s still got it

 

PSG could well rotate significantly for this match after their midweek drama in Barcelona, so there could be some fringe players given the chance to shine. Luis Enrique has not been shy about benching even Kylian Mbappe for matches like this.

 

Mbappe, with 1.12 goals per 90 in Ligue 1 this season, clearly carries PSG’s greatest scoring threat, yet he could hand the baton to Goncalo Ramos for this game. The Portuguese has a respectable 0.65 goals per 90 or eight in absolute numbers.

 

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Ramos is a prolific shooter, with 20 shots in his last three starts, which have seen him play a total of 235 minutes. This hasn’t translated into many shots on target, but the volume of efforts he has means that 1.25 is still a fair price for him to find the target once.

 

Randal Kolo Muani is another likely to get game time and along with Marco Asensio completes the four Parisians with more than 1 shot on target per 90 this season. Respectively priced at 1.33 and 1.36, value is tougher here to find.

 

Lyon actually equalled PSG’s eight shots on target when they were beaten 4-1 earlier this season, yet of all the players who worked Gianluigi Donnarumma that day, none is guaranteed to start. Corentin Tolisso and keen winger Ernest Nuamah stand the best chance. Both managed three shots on target that day.

 

 

Alexandre Lacazette, though, remains Lyon’s main threat. Stretchered off late in the Brest win, he is expected to play a full part in this encounter, having missed the previous clash against Luis Enrique’s side due to a ban. He has a shot on target in 14 of his last 17. 

 

Lacazette has also scored in 12 of these games, making the 2.88 odds on him adding to that tally very tempting against what may be a reshaped home rearguard.

 

Predictions:

Goncalo Ramos to have 1+  shots on target @ 1.25

Alexandre Lacazette to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.3

Alexandre Lacazette to anytime scorer @ 2.88

 

Lucas Beraldo to be put to the test

 

There were a measly 14 fouls in the entire match in the previous meeting between these sides, but Lyon have more fire in their bellies now and are unlikely to be as tame. Last weekend, OL had four players booked plus Nicolas Tagliafico sent off for a second yellow card against Brest last weekend.

 

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Lacazette was a menace in that game, conceding five free kicks. This is not so out of step with his season when he has given up 2.08 fouls per 90. At 1.5 to give up another couple in this match, he looks good value. Left-back Henrique, meanwhile, is liable to flirt with a booking. He should stand in for the suspended Tagliafico and, having picked up a couple of yellows in just 442 minutes of action will be stretched by PSG’s talented wingers. 

 

PSG are no shrinking violets, particularly Randal Kolo Muani, who has given up 2.54 fouls per 90 in Ligue 1 action. He is just 1.4 to give up a couple of free kicks.  Lucas Beraldo offers the best value in the fouls market for Les Parisiens. He was not involved in midweek and should get much of this game.

 

He has 1.22 fouls per 90 and will be niggled by the experienced Lacazette, who wins 1.48 fouls over the same timescale. His price of 1.3 to commit one foul is big and 2.5 to give away a couple is also significant. The young Brazilian is also worth considering in the cards market given he has been booked in four of his last five for club and country. He is a sizeable 4.5 here.

 

Predictions:

Alexandre Lacazette to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.5

Henrique to be shown a card @ 3.1

Lucas Beraldo to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.3

Lucas Beraldo to be shown a card @ 4.5

 

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / ANP – Getty Images

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