Georgia v Ukraine Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Georgia v Ukraine
Kick Off: Saturday 16th November, 17:00
Competition: UEFA Nations League
Watch Live: Viaplay International YouTube
Georgia are competing at League B level for the first time but a win here, coupled with Albania losing the other game in this group, will see an improving side qualifying for the top level for the first time. A draw would also keep them in control of their own destiny too.
Ukraine begin the week bottom of the table and are probably going to need to win both of their remaining matches if they are to avoid relegation or battling for it so this is a big game for both teams for different reasons. These two have already met in this competition when Ukraine came out on top by a 1-0 score last month so Georgia will be hoping that home advantage allows them to turn the tide on their fellow Eastern European nation.
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Match stats: Georgia to edge proceedings
Georgia head into the match as the favourites to win the contest, despite losing 1-0 in the reverse meeting between the two, although in truth there wasn’t too much between the sides in that encounter. Back on home soil, the Georgians will fancy their chances at picking up a result which will keep things in their own hands heading into the last round of matches.
That is largely because they are a solid side at home, but also because Ukraine are facing the prospect of being without a host of big players, with the likes of Andriy Yarmolenko, Andriy Lunin and Artem Dovbyk all out with injury, or in the case of the latter, extremely doubtful.
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Add to that the game time of Oleksandr Zinchenko and Mykhailo Mudryk has diminished with their clubs in the last 12 months or so, so this could be an undercooked Ukraine side going into this match. Georgia don’t have that problem. They have three extremely highly sought after commodities in their ranks and are definitely an improving side, so much so that it was a surprise when they were beaten by Albania last time out, albeit Georgia completely dominated that match, winning the xG battle 1.33-0.55.
Georgia have lost just seven of their last 31 matches in all competitions and three of those were to Spain so in the main the Georgia-draw double chance has regularly landed recently. It can again here. If you wanted to be a little braver with the bet in terms of bumping up the price then Georgia draw no bet could be an option.
You would only have had a push in six of those 31 games so you would have won in full on 18 of them which would be 18 out of 28 if you take the Spain matches out. That works out at just shy of 66% of the time for what is a 1.73 shot so the value is certainly with the Georgians there.
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However, all signs point to this being a low scoring affair. If Dovbyk does miss out that would be the main source of Ukrainian goals out of the side while Georgia will be happy just to win the game and were they to go ahead they might focus on not conceding rather than running up the score so adding under 3.5 goals to a bet builder feels like a fairly obvious selection.
Predictions:
Georgia/Draw double chance @1.40
Georgia DNB @1.73
Under 3.5 goals @1.27
Shot stats: Georgian stars to plough in the shots
Georgia have been a really good side to watch for a while now. They became the second team of many at Euro 2024 with the way that they went about their business in a controlled attacking style and nothing has really changed in this Nations League campaign.
Two men who caught the eye at the Euros were the Lyon forward Georges Mikautadze and the Napoli playmaker Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and both are very much the main men when it comes to this Georgia side and the shots lines of both are worth taking.
They are both 1.60 to have over 3.5 shots and that feels like every chance of landing. Mikautadze has been in and out of the Lyon side this season but he scored twice against Auxerre recently when starting and that should have boosted his confidence ahead of this one where he is expected to lead the line. He had three shots in the reverse meeting and one more on home soil feels achievable.
Kvaratskhelia also had three shots in the first game between the two but with Georgia naturally having to offer more offensively at home he is expected to fire in the shots too. He will be on most of the set plays so that offers up some free shooting opportunities. He had five shots against Albania last time out and four more should naturally come.
Looking into the Ukraine side, if we go with the thought process that they will play on the counter like they so often do on their travels then the 2.10 for Mykhailo Mudryk to have more than 2.5 shots feels like a runner. He will also be on some set plays around the box and if he gets clear of the defence he won’t be for catching. Mudryk had three shots in the reverse meeting and could be even more the main man for Ukraine here if Dovbyk does miss out.
Predictions:
G.Mikautadze Over 3.5 shots @1.60
K.Kvaratskhelia Over 3.5 shots @1.60
M.Mudryk Over 2.5 shots @2.10
Card stats: Kavanagh could be a busy man
Turning our attention to the cards and English referee Chris Kavanagh could be a very busy man. The reverse meeting had eight yellow cards and given that the importance of this match has increased since then you would think there is going to be a lot of thundering into tackles with mistimed tackles likely to come at will with the pace the attacking units of these two have.
Kavanagh has given out 81 yellow cards and three red cards in his 12 matches in England and Europe this term so he is averaging seven cards per match. Three times this season he has run into double figures for cards so it isn’t going to take much for the notebook to start filling up here. The general card line is 4.5 but that doesn’t look high enough.
The prime contender for a card could well be the Ukraine right-back Yukhym Konoplya, largely because he is going to have the skilful and tricky Kvaratskhelia on his side of the pitch and anything mistimed is likely to have the crowd raising the temperature given that the Napoli man is their hero. The Shakhtar man was booked in the reverse fixture and in a match where anyone feels susceptible to a card the 4.33 on him landing one looks an exceptional addition to any bet builder.
Predictions:
Over 4.5 cards @1.67
Y.Konoplya to be shown a card @4.33
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Nigel French / Allstar / Getty Images
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