Napoli v Lazio Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Napoli v Lazio
Kick Off: Sunday 8th December, 19:45
Competition: Serie A
Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
For the latest and very best expert football betting predictions, covering leagues from all over the world, head over to Andy’s Bet Club. Aside from my daily football tips, you can take advantage of several free-to-use tools to aid your betting, including cheat sheets and my bet builder stats tool.
Two of the best teams in Serie A meet in the key match of the weekend on Sunday evening when the leaders Napoli host fellow title challengers Lazio. These two met in the Coppa Italia in Rome on Thursday night and will face off in Naples with both teams looking for what could be three valuable points. Lazio won the cup tie so will they win the league game too or will Antonio Conte and his Napoli side take revenge?
Match Stats: Expect a fresher Napoli to get the job done in a game full of corners
Napoli made 11 changes for the cup clash in midweek so they will be much the fresher side here against a Lazio outfit who were only able to make eight switches to their side. When you add home advantage in too, which is a real boost for Napoli because they have only lost once on their own patch all season, then you have to be looking at the 1.85 on a Napoli win as good value.
Lazio have already lost four matches on their travels this season, will be without central midfielder Nicolo Rovella who is suspended, while they also have a bunch of injuries which could hold them back. That isn’t the case for Napoli, who have a wealth of attacking options in their squad. The Naples club have scored 12 goals in their seven home matches and they were shut out in one of those so when they are good they are very good and against a weakened Lazio who don’t travel particularly great, they should be favoured to win here.
Scudetto Scassat’: How Napoli’s Nightmare Season Unfolded after Spalletti’s Scudetto Success
A trend which has been apparent with these two sides has been how many corners they win. Only Cagliari have won more corners in Serie A this term than Lazio while Napoli are next in line. Lazio have 83 corners in their 14 matches at a nudge under six per match while Napoli have claimed 75 flag kicks at comfortably more than five per game.
In the cup game in Rome on Thursday night, both teams picked up seven corners so corners could well be a frequent part of a match between two sides who do use their wide players high up the pitch. Over 8.5 corners is a perfectly acceptable price at 1.45 but even over 9.5 corners would land at 1.80 if both teams only perform to their average.
Predictions:
Napoli to win @ 1.85
Over 8.5 corners @ 1.45
Over 9.5 corners @ 1.80
Shot Stats: Attacking players the dangers in an open game
There are a lot of classy attacking players on show in this match and from their point of view the good thing is their manager didn’t show their hand in the cup game in midweek as the key men were largely rested on both sides. That should allow Napoli star Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to be able to showcase his stuff. Already this season he has scored five goals for the home side but his shots on target statistics are very strong too.
No Stopping Tijjani: How Tijjani Noslin’s Surge in Success Can Bless Marco Baroni’s Lazio
He averages 1.25 shots on target in Serie A this season and is 1.40 to have another in this match. He has hit the target in three of his last four league games and should do so again here. Moving to the other side and Lazio forward Valentin Castellanos ranks even better for shots on target. The Argentine is sixth in Serie A for shots on target per 90, averaging 1.76 of them per 90 minutes.
He hit the target twice against Parma last weekend and once against Monza in the match before that. He will be key for Lazio in this game and looks a big price at 1.57 to hit the target. Scott McTominay has goals in two of his last three Napoli matches in Serie A and hitting the target is becoming a regular thing for him. He averages 0.79 shots on target per 90 minutes this season in Italy but that figure is rising more and more as he settles in and 1.73 is big for him to test the keeper again.
Predictions:
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1+ shots on target @ 1.40
Valentin Castellanos 1+ shots on target @ 1.57
Scott McTominay 1+ shots on target @ 1.73
Fouls Stats: Full-backs the place to target fouls
This feels like it is going to be a fiery match and with both sides having tricky wingers in their ranks it stands to reason that the full-backs are going to have their work cut out here. Luca Pellegrini is a serial fouler in Serie A this season, averaging 2.07 fouls per 90 minutes in the league this term and with him likely to be up against Matteo Politano those stats are unlikely to change.
Politano currently averages 1.44 fouls won per 90 minutes so this is a tussle which could easily reward Napoli with some free kicks in wide areas. The 1.61 on a full-back who has had a tough time this season conceding two fouls feels a big price. At the other end of the pitch, Giovanni Di Lorenzo feels like an obvious pick to concede a foul.
In the league this season he is averaging 1.57 fouls committed per 90 minutes but he goes up against a man who is relentless in being fouled this term. That player is Mattia Zaccagni who is winning a pretty crazy 3.10 fouls per 90 minutes for his side this season. That is another key battle in the match and the 1.54 for the Napoli right-back to concede a foul looks too big.
Predictions:
Luca Pellegrini to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.62
Giovannni Di Lorenzo to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.54
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Image Photo Agency / Getty Images
18+ Gamble Responsibly