Valencia v Leganes Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Valencia v Leganes
Kick Off: Sunday 9th February
Competition: LaLiga
Watch Live: – Premier Sports 1
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A crucial clash at the bottom of La Liga sees Carlos Corberan’s Valencia side welcome a Leganes side that they are 4 points behind in the race to survive in Spain’s top-flight for another season. Corberan has made Valencia a bit harder to beat since his arrival from West Brom but has suffered setbacks in the form of 2 big losses to Barcelona over recent weeks amid 3 wins in their last 5 games across all competitions. Leganes are without a win in their last 3 games in all competitions and don’t travel particularly well winning just 1 of their 11 games on the road this season, drawing 7 of those games.
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Match Stats – A nervy night in-store at the Mestalla
Neither of these sides enter this contest with any sort of clear momentum which suggests that this encounter will be packed with tension and nerves, particularly in the early stages of the game. Valencia have to at least get a point in this game but even that may not be enough with how the relegation picture is unfolding.
For this reason, the onus will be on Valencia to force the issue and they do tend to be more reliable at home – Valencia have avoided defeat in 7 of their 11 home assignments this season, scoring 16 goals in the process. Carlos Corberan’s side are ranked 14th for their home record in La Liga which is far better reading than their away record for which they rank 18th – winning 0 of their games away from home in La Liga this season.
Leganes will see this as a real opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the drop zone with a win here taking them 7 points clear of their opponents. What stands out with their away record is how often they draw games, they’ve drawn 7 of their 11 away games in La Liga this season, more than any other side in the division.
This suggests that head coach Borja Jimenez sets up his side to be compact and tough to beat on the road as shown by the fact they’ve only conceded 14 goals in their away fixtures this campaign, a pretty respectable record when compared to the other teams around them fighting for survival. There really isn’t much to separate these sides, this was proven true in the initial meeting between the teams which ended in a 0-0 draw, there was only 1 shot on target in the game and a low shot count of just 14 shots between the sides.
The lack of goal threat was best summarised by the low xG of both teams, neither registered an xG in excess of 1.0 (0.79-0.54) with the only separation coming in the possession numbers which Leganes had the majority of (59%). One thing worth noting is that there were 29 fouls in the initial meeting, the lack of action in both boxes concentrated the majority of the battle to the middle of the pitch which resulted in both sides committing at least 14 fouls.
Predictions
- Match Result – Draw @ 3.30
- Under 2.5 goals @ 1.50
Shots Stats – Hugo Duro the man to watch
For a striker that has spent the majority of the campaign playing as the lone centre forward in a side battling relegation, Hugo Duro has done a solid job in recording 7 goals and 2 assists across his 19 La Liga appearances this season, no Valencia player has scored more than the 25-year-old who will need to be on top form if Valencia are to break the resolve of a solid Leganes backline.
Duro’s 7 goals this season have come as a result of 1.81 shots and 0.81 shots on target per 90, these numbers aren’t particularly standout but are notable as he tops the side in these metrics out of players that have consistently played for Valencia this campaign. In other words, he’s the most reliable attacking outlet in the squad. This is further evidenced by the fact he’s scored 2 goals across his last 3 La Liga appearances, against Barcelona and Real Sociedad so he carries some form into this encounter.
It would be a surprise to see any solid and sustained attacking play from either of these sides with both low on confidence and knowing that 3 points either way will completely change the picture at the bottom of La Liga which should result in a nervy encounter of few chances but when they do come, expect them to fall at the feet of Duro who is the most likely attacker to affect the game based on his numbers this season.
Predictions
- Hugo Duro 1+ shots on target @ 1.33
- Hugo Duro to score/assist @ 2.10
Card Stats – Yvan Neyou Noupa the standout
The initial meeting between the sides was largely a dull affair but what stood out was the number of fouls exchanged between the sides. There were 29 game-stopping incidents in total (14-15) in a scrappy game which should be replicated here with both sides still in the thick of La Liga’s relegation battle. One player that really stands out to watch for a foul and a caution is Leganes’ Noupa.
The central midfielder has collected 9 yellow cards across his 18 La Liga appearances this campaign, only 1 player in the entirety of La Liga has collected more cautions than the 28-year-old who has received 2 yellow cards across his last 5 appearances in all competitions.
Noupa is averaging 1.22 fouls committed per 90 across these appearances which is actually quite a modest total when considering how often these are leading to cards. Noupa lived up to these numbers in the initial meeting between the sides, committing 1 foul from his 7 duels and picking up a yellow card.
Predictions
- Yvan Neyou Noupa to be shown a card @ 2.50
- Yvan Neyou Noupa 2+ fouls committed @ 1.73
- Yvan Neyou Noupa 1+ fouls committed in the first half @ 1.62
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Alex Caparros / Getty Images
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