Mainz v Leverkusen Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Mainz v Leverkusen
Kick Off: 14:30, Saturday
Competition: Bundesliga
Watch Live: SkySports
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Mainz will be looking to hold on to a spot in Europe next season on the final day of the Bundesliga after a remarkable season that has seen them go from relegation candidates last campaign, to serious European challengers this term.
Piero Hincapié — The Present and Future of Leverkusen’s Defense
On the other side, it’s Xabi Alonso’s last ever game in charge of Bayer Leverkusen with the Spanish boss seemingly Real Madrid bound. This game has more riding on it for Mainz than it does Leverkusen, but the away side will still want to give their boss an appropriate send off after a disappointing result against Dortmund last time out.
Match Stats: Strong home/away records for both sides
One of the reasons for Mainz’s excellent season this year has been their home form; they’ve lost 10 games in the Bundesliga this season but only three of these losses have come at home. They’ve drawn more of these games than they would have liked (7) which is actually the joint most in the Bundesliga, but it shows that they can be difficult to beat on familiar territory.
However, Leverkusen boast an equally impressive record on the road in the German top flight this season. Only Bayern Munich (35) have amassed more points on the road than Leverkusen this season (34). They’re yet to lose a game on the road in the Bundesliga, winning nine of their 16 away assignments.
The initial meeting between these sides finished 1-0 to Leverkusen so we can expect quite a tight game here, especially seeing as Mainz face the jeopardy of dropping out of the European spots altogether if RB Leipzig can better their result on the final day. Both of these sides have only won one of their last five games so they aren’t entering this game with any sort of momentum which should produce a scrappy and tight affair, an analysis backed up by their strong home and away records this season.
Predictions:
- Under 3.5 goals @ 1.65
- Match Result: Leverkusen or draw @ 1.62
Shot Stats: Burkardt can step up
Burkardt has been Mainz’s main source of goals this season, scoring 17 goals across his 28 appearances in the German top flight this campaign which places him amongst the top five strikers in the Bundesliga. Only Patrick Schick (19), Serhou Guirassy (20) and Harry Kane (25) have scored more goals than the Mainz striker this season.
He’s scored in each of his last two games so he enters this crucial clash on the final day of the season with momentum. Mainz have scored 22 goals across their 16 home games this season (1.37 per game) and should be motivated by the opportunity to play in Europe next season, this is in their hands with Mainz just needing to better RB Leipzig’s result on the final day to secure a place in the Conference League next season.
Burkardt’s goal contributions are invaluable to this Mainz side, the next top scorer in the squad is Paul Nebel who has scored nine goals in the Bundesliga this season. Burkardt is on penalties for Mainz and has also outperformed his xG this season by almost four goals (13.7).
Predictions:
- Jonathan Burkardt to score anytime @ 2.1
- Jonathan Burkardt 2+ shots on target @ 1.72
- Jonathan Burkardt 3+ shots @ 1.33
Card Stats: Mainz more likely to become frustrated
Mainz have picked up 10 more yellow cards than Leverkusen this season and are the side more likely to get frustrated here seeing as they have European qualification on the line.
The Rise of Mainz: From Relegation Fighters to Champions League Contenders
Mainz rank fourth in the Bundesliga for fouls committed per game (11.9), Leverkusen rank 16th in the Bundesliga when measured against the same metric (9.5). This suggests that even without the context of Mainz battling for Europe, they are a more aggressive side than Leverkusen. This was evident in the initial meeting between the sides which saw Mainz pick up three yellow cards and commit 14 fouls.
Leverkusen only committed four fouls and were shown just one yellow card on that occasion which reinforces the suggestion that Mainz are the side more likely to catch the attention of the referee, especially in the latter stages of the game if the result isn’t matching up with Mainz’s pre game expectations.
Predictions:
- Mainz to be shown the most cards @ ?
- Mainz 2+ cards @ 1.72
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Alexander Hassenstein / Getty Images
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