Spain vs Argentina: The Subtle Factors That Could Decide the Final.

On June 27, 2016, Lionel Messi announced his retirement from international football after defeat to Chile in the Copa America final at MetLife Stadium. More than 10 years later, he returns to the same coliseum to secure his second World Cup title. If Argentina were to lift the trophy on Sunday, it would be a fifth consecutive international title for Scaloni’s men. Up against Argentina are the current European champion, Spain. Having won the World Cup in 2010, Spain would be playing in their second World Cup final in history.

The paths to the final for both teams have been markedly different. Spain enters the match in New Jersey having conceded just a single goal throughout the tournament, while Argentina has let in seven. However, Argentina has demonstrated tremendous grit and mental fortitude to fight back and stand up to the task. Given that both teams have played seven games, their formations and tactics are already well-established and require little further discussion. The outcome will probably hinge on subtle factors, such as which side blinks first or which manager makes the bolder decisions.

Argentina’s Pressing Dilemma

Spain like to build from the back line and play through the opposition’s press. They don’t have a target man or runners up front and thus use short passes and quick combinations to break free. Oyarzabal and Olmo both drop deep and help Spain gain the majority in their own half. Argentina press man-to-man but always leave one man free to maintain the majority in the back line. This is a huge dilemma for Lionel Scaloni. If he presses Spain the same way Argentina have done so far, Spain have the skill set to play through the press. But if he matches Spain’s numbers and goes completely man-to-man, that leaves Lamine Yamal in a 1 vs 1 duel on the half-line. This is a situation no manager wants to put his team and players in. Either way, Spain would create some good chances and challenge Argentina’s goal. The only way for Argentina to hold Spain is if they don’t let Spain gain momentum and slow the pace of the game by committing constant fouls and frustrating them, as they did against England.

Spain's In-possession Play

Spain, in possession, maintain a 5-3-2 structure. They threaten the opposition from central areas using Olmo and Oyarzabal, and through wide areas with Baena and Yamal, supported by full-backs. Against France, Spain were reluctant to put many men forward due to France’s transition threat. That is why Pedro Porro did not provide that much support to Yamal as he usually does. But Argentina don’t have that much of a transition threat. Lionel Messi and Julian Alvarez are the kind of players who want the ball at their feet. Hence, Porro can contribute a lot more in attack and help pin Argentina down.

Simeone or De Paul

This leaves Scaloni with a selection headache ahead of the final. If he goes for Giuliano Simeone, he provides his team with a player willing to run in behind and a man up front to target long balls under pressure. If he goes for De Paul, he provides his team with a numerical majority in midfield but loses a runner up front. Both options have a downside. If Argentina does not have a runner or target man up front, Spain could pin them back just as Argentina did to England in the second half. But if they don’t have a numerical majority in midfield, Spain could play through them. From my perspective, Scaloni should opt for Simeone. Having a runner up front and an attacking outlet is necessary. Argentina cannot just defend in their own half. No manager in the world would know it better than Lionel Scaloni right now.

Spain’s Pressing Efficiency

Argentina also like to build from the back because they have quality players on the ball and also lack a target man up front, just like Spain. Spain are the best pressing team in the tournament and take only 14.5 seconds on average to recover the ball back in the opposition half after a turnover. Spain also press man-to-man, often leaving a majority in the defensive line. But the lack of counter-attacking threat from Argentina could allow them to deploy another man forward while pressing. That is why I believe Giuliano Simeone should start because he provides the get out of jail free card if Argentina are being strangled.

How Can Argentina Hurt Spain

Argentina seem most threatening when they pin the opposition down in their half. Argentina can hurt Spain if they beat the initial press and then starve Spain of the ball. Spain’s biggest strength is that they defend with the ball. But if they are forced to defend for longer spells without getting the ball, they can be caught off guard. Argentina play by overloading central areas or playing long diagonal balls to the full-backs. Apart from playing through the middle with 1-2s and quick combinations, Argentina’s biggest attacking threat is left-back Nicolas Tagliafico. But Yamal’s presence on the same flank forces Tagliafico to prioritize defense, neutralizing his attacking threat. This makes a case for Scaloni to start Nicolas Gonzalez on the left wing to provide more attacking potential, but he cannot risk giving Spain midfield superiority.

Both teams have questions to answer before the mega showdown in East Rutherford, though on paper it seems as if Spain have a slight edge built on their ability to control possession and defensive record. But one cannot underestimate Argentina, as they are the side that has done it before and always raise their floor at big occasions. Ultimately, it would depend on which manager or side can answer the questions that the other side poses.