The outsiders emerging as real World Cup contenders

The group stage of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup may not be quite over, but a picture of the knockout phase is starting to emerge. More importantly, observers are starting to get an idea of the kind of form that each team is in. 

The same group of nations have been favourites since long before the World Cup began. Spain and France have been swapping position for the most likely winners in the bookies’ eyes all year, with England usually third choice. 

Just behind them is a group including Brazil, Argentina and Portugal, with Germany and the Netherlands slightly further back. Fans watching from co-hosts Canada can see who currently tops the World Cup odds to win the Jules Rimet trophy by checking their betting sites. 

The current front-runners, of course, only account for eight teams. There are 48 competing at the 2026 World Cup, and some outside contenders from among the remaining 40 have definitely emerged. 

While their journeys may end before the World Cup Final on 19th July, these are the three teams who look set to still be challenging long after their journeys were predicted to end. 

Japan

Group C is one of the toughest at the World Cup, with Japan drawn alongside the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia. Still, the Blue Samurai looked good as they deftly navigated their tricky opponents, something that won’t have been a surprise to fans who watched Japan’s preparations. 

They beat World Cup frontrunners Brazil and England in the months building up to the tournament, raising some eyebrows in the process. Japan’s subsequent group stage performances have now cemented the fact that they have to be taken seriously in the knockouts.  

There has been much talk about Japan’s 100-year plan to win the World Cup, and so far they look ahead of schedule. Started in 1992 with the launch of the J.League, and furthered by co-hosting the 2002 World Cup, Japan began a multi-generation journey to the top of the football world. 

The Blue Samurai have always maintained they’re bringing their best ever team to North America for the 2026 tournament. It looks it too, driven forward by Feyenoord striker Ayase Ueda’s goals while Daichi Kamada runs the midfield. 

On current form, Japan could prove to be decades ahead of their plan. 

Morocco

When Brazil drew 1-1 with Morocco in their opening group game, there was open revolt among Brazilian media and fans. How could the fabled Seleção, they asked, struggle so badly against a team such as Morocco? After all, Brazil are five-time winners and perennial contenders. 

They deduced the problem must have been with the players performances and manager Carlo Ancelotti’s selection. The truth is, it was a result Morocco earned on merit thanks to their defensive strength. 

Morocco are the reigning Africa Cup of Nations champions, a fact easily forgotten with how the tournament ended. The team were beaten by Senegal in the final, though the result was eventually overturned as the Senegalese players were punished for their walk-off protest over refereeing decisions. 

The Atlas Lions style is defined by their defensive strength, with a pair of world-class wingbacks letting them to easily play out from the back. Paris Saint-Germain’s Achraf Hakimi and Manchester United’s Noussair Mazraoui allow Morocco to stifle opponents’ best attackers, then smoothly transition the ball to the likes of Brahim Diaz. 

This adds up to Morocco being a tough team to beat, making them perfect for an outsider run at the World Cup. 

USA

Never, ever underestimate host nation at a World Cup. In 2002, South Korea shocked the world by eliminating Italy and Spain on their way to the semi-finals. Meanwhile, Russia eliminated Spain on their way to a quarter-final appearance at their home tournament in 2018. Canada are already out-performing expectations at the current World Cup. 

There are three co-hosts in 2026; Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The biggest benefactor, though, will be the USA. The team has already clinched the top spot in Group D, and cemented a path to the final that stays entirely in the USA. This means they’ll get home support for every remaining game. 

Led by the likes of Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Antonee Robinson, the USA always had the potential to make a good run in the tournament. When you add in the passionate home support the team is enjoying, there’s every chance that the USA can ride their home wave to a World Cup win.