Tunisia v Japan Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Tunisia v Japan

Kick Off: 5:00am, Sunday 21st June

Competition: World Cup 

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After seeing how Tunisia performed against Sweden in round one, Japan should be looking forward to this fixture. 

Japan arrive in Monterrey for this round two fixture having already shown that they are capable of competing with the top sides - they drew 2-2 against the Netherlands last time out. Tunisia find themselves in a precarious position after losing 5-1 against Sweden, so they will be desperate to bounce back here in round two. 

Match Stats: Japan hold the clear edge

After how both sides performed in round one of the World Cup group stage, it’s not a surprise to see Japan priced as decent favourites, and they are quite short. There does seem to be a significant gulf in quality between these two teams - Japan were disciplined and organised against the Netherlands, restricting one of Europe's most potent attacking sides to just ten shots worth 0.78 xG. The Asian side showed grit to fight back on two occasions to level the scores, including an 89th-minute equaliser from Daichi Kamada. 

Tunisia, by contrast, were all over the place against Sweden. They conceded five goals, most of which were directly as a result of individual efforts, but they also struggled to string together many meaningful passages of play to create chances, prompting criticism from the likes of Damian Pedrosa. The Swedish defence were not really tested at all in round one. If Japan are allowed to dominate possession, they have more than enough creativity to punish this Tunisian side in their hopes of securing top spot. 

Predictions:

• Japan to Win @ 1.5
• Japan Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.67
• Japan to Keep a Clean Sheet @ 2.0

Shots Stats: Nakamura and Doan the standout threats in Japan's system

Japan matched the Dutch tally of ten shots in round one, but they should have much more success in the final third against Tunisia, who are a better matchup. The Blue Samurai like to commit bodies forward, with attack-minded wingbacks who do more than just create space for the wingers. In fact, these wingbacks are key players for Japan going forward - Nakamura was on the scoresheet against the Netherlands last time out, and he recorded more shots than any other player in the Japan squad. Ritsu Doan blanked on shots from the opposite flank, but the Japan skipper looks set for a bigger role going forward here, following the injury to Takefusa Kubo. There is a strong chance Doan will be pushed forward to play on the right wing, reducing his defensive responsibility in round two.

Tunisia managed just six shots worth 0.28 xG against Sweden, which shows how it was one-way traffic, and the Japan attackers should be licking their lips at the prospect of this matchup.  

Predictions:

• Keito Nakamura 1+ Shot on Target @ 1.62
• Japan 6+ Shots on Target @ 2.0
• Ritsu Doan 2+ Shots @ 1.5

Card Stats: Tunisia's desperation makes them the primary card's target

Tunisia coach Sabri Lamouchi was left frustrated in round one as his side were the catalysts of their own downfall, and they barely put up a fight against Sweden. The African side recorded just eight fouls, which translated to one yellow, but their approach will have a change against Japan. Tunisia are usually quite an aggressive side, and they had picked up at least two bookings in four of their previous five games before the World Cup started. They have a lot of intense players in their ranks - players who like to press strongly and fly into challenges. Hannibal Mejbri, Rani Khedira and Ellyes Skhiri are the prime examples in midfield. 

Japan play a fluid style of football, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Tunisia players dragged out of position and forced into cynical fouls. The Blue Samurai were only fouled seven times by the Netherlands, but that resulted in three bookings. 

Predictions:

• Tunisia Over 1.5 Cards @ 1.7
• Ali Abdi to be Carded @ 4.0
• Yan Valery 2+ Fouls @ 1.8

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