Why the Maths of Casino Games and Football Betting Markets Cannot Be Compared
Casino games and football betting are both gambling; yet the maths behind them is very different. Knowing how both work is crucial for those using combined sportsbooks and casinos.
The return to player rating is a stalwart of gambling mathematics. It provides players with a benchmark of how much a gambling pursuit, such as online slots, should pay back to a player. Yet it is misunderstood, and can yield varied results depending on the form. A roulette wheel and football accumulator, for example, will not both apply RTP because of time and structure changes in how they are used.
The Constants of Casino Gaming
When you play a casino game, it will most definitely have a stated Return to Player (RTP) rating. Most slot RTP levels are between the 92% and 97% margins. This means that the game is tested over thousands of spins, and probability dictates that 92% to 97% of the players' bankroll wagered, depending on the exact rating, will be given back to them. The rest is the house edge, which is the amount kept by the operator as profit.
Slot games always come with RTP levels, but they can vary, even in what may seem like the same game. This is because RTP can impact tax and GGR. Thus, some games are made by developers and given out with different licensing requirements. Those who want to play online slots outside the UK, allowing them differing RTP ratings, should look at the slot sites not on Gamstop. Operators such as Fortune Jack can offer bonuses and great usability, just like licensed casinos, yet can also provide games with better or adapting ratings.
In these games, the mathematics are immutable. Changing them causes transparency issues, and with UKGC-licensed casinos, it can result in heavy fines. Thus, RTP is a pretty solid statistic that does not change.
The Bookmakers Overround
When it comes to football betting, people begin to deal with shifting odds. This makes RTP a slightly useless concept. Instead, bookmakers use a concept known as overround to address the bookmaker margin.
Imagine a fair event, such as a coin flip. The probability of heads and tails occurring is 50/50, providing a 50% ratio for each. When you combine this together, it equals 100%. Yet bookmakers need to make money, so providing bets on 50/50 events makes no sense. Instead, they adjust odds so that the probability crosses the 100% threshold. This extra percentage is the overround, and it equates to the bookmaker's profit, no matter what the outcome of the event is.
To calculate an overround, all odds must be converted to decimals. They must then be divided by 1 to provide the percentage. All of these percentages are added together to give the outcome. So imagine a game has team A, a draw or team B. If the percentages add up to 105%, the overround is 5%. The lower the overround, the better it is for the person placing the bet.
Single Session Against Multiple Attempts
Thus, the two can not really be compared, as one addresses a wager made on a single event or session. The other is played out over thousands of games and averaged.
To understand this, we must also address variance, also known as volatility, in online slots. This measures how frequently a game pays. Those with high volatility don’t pay often, but they give bigger wins when they finally do. Low volatility slot games provide regular wins of small amounts.
This is different to RTP, which measures the total amount paid back. Consider it like a bank loan. Two people owe the bank £1000. One person goes for a low volatility method, paying the money back in small amounts of £20 over the loan period. Another person is high volatility, and pays it back in large sums of £250 sporadically. Both pay £1000 back, but with different variance.
As RTP is worked out across thousands of spins, it can be very different in reality. A player may make a single wager of £1 and win a jackpot of £300 right away, then never play again. In this case, the RTP is of no consequence. Another player may spin 30 times and not even win their stake back. Yet if either player did carry on, for thousands of spins, this would eventually even out to the RTP.
With sports betting, the overround is a statistic valid for only one event. This makes it extremely hard, in fact impossible, to compare them. People must also take into account that casino games have set rules and strategy. Sports have many other variables, which can include everything from player form to home advantages. Adding this many options, which come and go at various points, would be unfathomable to synthesise as an RTP rating. Thus, gamblers should never try to apply the long-term outlook of statistics like RTP to short-term events like sport.