UEFA Coefficient Roundup: Qualifying Week 4

We are halfway through the qualifying rounds across UEFA's club competitions. Already there are some highly interesting results, which have a massive impact on the UEFA coefficient rankings. Another 49 clubs were eliminated from Europe last week, joining the 26 that were knocked out in the Conference League first qualifying round. In total, another 54 will suffer the same fate by the end of August.

Now that four weeks of qualifying round action is complete, here is a look at how the results play a role in the five-year UEFA coefficient battles for the season.

Battle for 50th: Three Nations Suffer Disastrous Fate

Starting with the battle to avoid the bottom five, and things have gotten very clear now. Just one place in the bottom five is left, and up to four countries are left hoping to end the year in the top 50.

The only nation to have come out on top this week was Wales, and that turned out to be a mere consolation. They, along with Luxembourg and Montenegro all exit the European scene. As a result, the trio will finish in the bottom five, just as San Marino will. It is worth noting that while Luxembourg climbed to 50th last week, they are guaranteed to finish at least 51st due to Northern Ireland and Georgia's remaining teams facing each other next round.

That leaves a perfect segue to this next point: Larne and Iberia 1999 face each other next in a massive clash in the Europa League. Given the current circumstances, it is very likely that the losing side will see their nation claim the last place in the bottom five - unless they can traverse the UECL playoff round, which is no given. It might just be the tie of the summer.

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Looking elsewhere, Andorra and Northern Ireland failed to collect any points this week alongside Montenegro, who became the first nation in a decade to go a season without winning any UEFA coefficient points. A 0-0-10 record is a massive failure for a country that earned 2.500 points just two years ago.

Gibraltar, Luxembourg, and Georgia grabbed a draw each from the week. After another summer of struggle, Luxembourg will end up in the bottom five for the second year running, meaning just three European places. Surely a disappointment for them. Gibraltar has a higher chance of being safe than Andorra due to Lincoln Red Imps being guaranteed at least four more European games.

All eyes will be on the Larne vs Iberia 1999 tie in the UEL. This will play a key role in who finishes the season in the bottom five. We could very well see this battle conclude before the league phase begins, depending on how the UECL playoff round goes.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Chasing Pack In Trouble

Next is the battle for places in the top 33 and top 38 in this season's UEFA coefficient ranking. It has been a rather slow race so far, with all but two nations having already lost teams. The two countries to start the season with the highest chances of holding onto 33rd are in a great position to do so as well.

The standout countries this week in terms of performance were Latvia and Finland, who continue to have highly impressive campaigns. The former managed to keep three of their four sides in Europe, albeit in the UECL, while the latter has all four clubs left. The only negative for the Finns is KuPS' loss in the Champions League, dropping them to the UEL. Still, the pair are in a great spot, and could even push for top 33 if things go wrong for those above them.

Ireland and Armenia are still in a rather solid position to hold onto their respective places, even if the Irish have had a poor year. They are lucky to have three teams left, and with Shamrock Rovers' elimination in the UCL to Ararat-Armenia (their direct rival), it could spell trouble. Even Armenia is down to two clubs, though with 12 more matches assured, it is a welcomed balancing act.

Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are both down to one side each, though the former had a decent week. These two are the chasing pack, and have not done well to keep up with the pair above them. A 5-3-7 record on the year is not absolutely horrible, but when the gap is still quite big, Kosovo could have used another team in the third qualifying round. The same thing goes for Bosnia, who have just two wins this term. That is a worrying sign for the next round, where there is no more room for error.

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Kazakhstan saw both of their teams advance, and that could be the decisive point here. Although Liechtenstein have already started to make some movement, it is a tough ask for Vaduz to reach the UECL proper again. That is the only realistic way for them to push their nation into the top 38. The Faroe Islands' hopes of 38th do not look good either, though a KÍ Klaksvík win in UEL Q3 could change their fortunes just a little.

Moldova's decline continues as they are down to just one team. It is not outside the realms of possibility that they could end the season with less than a point collected, which would be an utter disaster. With 3.750 points to defend this campaign, the situation could become dire over the next year or two. Top 38 looks very unlikely for them at this point, seeing they already lost their domestic champion - the highest ranked nation to do so.

Heading into the third qualifying round, keep a close eye on what Kosovo and Bosnia do. Whether we will truly have a race for 33rd by the league phase depends on the duo.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Majority Claim League Phase Spots

Next in this review is the race for top 22/top 29, where pretty much everything remains at the status quo. Outside of one country, no one had an absolute nightmare week in terms of expectations and opportunities.

In terms of performances, Austria continued their impressive start to the term with another perfect week. They are not in the clear yet, but they can be very happy with how things have gone. Israel are also riding high with a 5-1-2 record across Q2. All four of their teams are left, with their champion in the UCL and cup winner in the UEL. They could not ask for much better than that. Suddenly, their chances at top 22 have gone up considerably.

There are three countries who will look back at this week and see a missed opportunity: Romania, Ukraine, and Slovenia. The Romanians lost half of their contingent, with FCSB's elimination in particular being quite painful. Ukraine's UECL duo had very tough assignments, but will rue what could have been, seeing how the matches went.

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As for Slovenia, they were the biggest failure of the week, by far. They, alongside Ukraine, picked up a paltry 0.125 points, but the main difference was that they lost all of their UECL sides. And, when looking at who they fell to, it leaves much to be desired. Thus, their chances of top 22 have fallen by a huge margin. Yes, they were not expected to have multiple league phase teams this term. But to lose out on valuable UEFA coefficient points this early on is a nightmare scenario.

Hungary, Romania, and Iceland are the only countries yet to guarantee a league phase spot. That could change for all three next round, as they all have a team in the UEL. Beyond that, there are not too many conclusions that cane be made in the race for 22nd at this point. That will change a lot more over the next four weeks..

As for the battle for 29th, Serbia and Iceland find themselves with much work to be done. The duo have had okay starts to the season, but with Bulgaria sitting pretty with three teams left, that could become a hurdle. Slovakia is the only other country that could fall out of the top 29 at this rate, so watch out for them.

The third qualifying round will separate the contenders from the pretenders regarding 22nd spot. Things are starting to heat up though, so keep a close eye on what transpires over these final four weeks of qualifying round play.

Battle for 14th: Cyprus With Disadvantage

The race for top 14 also took a fascinating turn, with Cyprus' disastrous week having some serious repercussions on their chances of overtaking Denmark and/or Norway. The Nordic duo, on the other hand, got very lucky.

It was an awful week for Cypriot football fans - do not let the 0.750 points fool anyone - as Omonoia dropped out of the UCL, while AEK Larnaca suffered an early exit from Europe altogether. The only real saving grace for them was Pafos finding a way to turn things around in the UEL. Had they fallen to the UECL, it truly would have gotten ugly.

Two teams in the league phase does seem likely for Cyprus, though there is still work to be done. Norway, meanwhile, did not sparkle, but did just enough. Tromsø falling to the UECL does provide worry though. They and Brann now have the unenviable task of trying to navigate two more qualifying rounds with no room for error.

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Denmark can breathe a sigh of relief to have all their teams in Europe. Nordsjælland sparkled in their comeback, while FC København and AGF can count their lucky stars things worked out for them. Midtjylland were the only side to lose, meaning there are three Danish teams in the UECL now. It makes the next four weeks very fascinating as a result.

So, the last two qualifying rounds could be decisive in this race. Cyprus will not have a team in the UCL, but could guarantee two league phase spots after the penultimate stage of qualification. Denmark are in a tricky spot, while Norway could flex their muscles further.

Battle for Top 10: Turkish Troubles

What a dramatic turn of events in the battle for top 10, where one country lost a team already, while another has no sides left in the UCL.

Türkiye will be left the most disappointed of the lot after İstanbul Başakşehir fell in the UECL. That leaves them with four teams already. Beşiktaş' success in the UEL is a welcomed trade-off though, and almost surely means they will have four league phase spots.

Czechia had the best week of the bunch, as both of their sides won. That slightly increased Hradec Králové's chances of league phase football. They have a direct clash in the UEL next, so victory there could make things look very good for them. Greece also can be satisfied with how the week went despite Panathinaikos dropping some winnable points in the UECL.

Poland may still have all five of their sides left in Europe, but it cannot be seen a successful week due to Lech Poznań's UCL collapse. They gave away a three-goal lead at home and lost on penalties, dropping them to the UEL. Górnik Zabrze's draw can be a positive as it was unexpected points to begin with. However, with no sides left in the UCL, the Poles miss out on valuable bonus points, something the rest of the countries could benefit from.

The third qualifying round has a direct clash in the UEL, which could put the Turks in trouble. That might be worth looking out for. Otherwise, more can be concluded after the next two weeks.

A Look at Everyone Else

A look now at the other countries involved in last week's play that are not in a UEFA coefficient battle. Two countries are now here, those being Lithuania and Estonia. The duo are no longer in danger of finishing in the bottom five.

The Baltic pair have two sides left each, with Lithuania securing a second-ever group phase place thanks to Kauno Žalgiris. Both countries have also jumped a spot in the rankings thanks to their performances, with Albania also making a move up the rankings.

Malta are one of four countries to be done on the European scene already, with none of their four teams managing to progress from a single tie. They join Montenegro and Wales as the only nations that can claim this. Certainly an alarming sign for future years. North Macedonia lost their domestic champion, as they are now down to just one team.

Portugal and Belgium saw their two teams advance in their respective competitions, while the Netherlands had an elimination. Twente could not recover in the UEL, meaning they head to the UECL. No more dropdowns for them should they fail once more. As for Switzerland, they have their full complement of teams in Q3, but Thun's UCL collapse will be a sore spot for them, given the opportunity they had.