The Missing Number Nine: Has Modern Football Changed Who Is Expected to Score?

From the rise of goalscoring wingers to the growing importance of set-pieces, the modern game is redistributing the responsibility for goals — but has it come at the expense of the elite centre-forward?

There was a time when the identity of a team's principal goalscorer was rarely a mystery. The number nine occupied the centre of the attacking structure, carried the responsibility of converting chances and was judged, above almost everything else, by the number of goals he scored.

From Alan Shearer and Thierry Henry to Ruud van Nistelrooy and Didier Drogba, elite centre-forwards represented different interpretations of the same fundamental objective: to turn attacking possession into goals. Their methods varied, but their importance to their teams was unmistakable.

Today, however, the traditional number nine occupies a different place in football's tactical landscape. Wingers are increasingly expected to deliver elite goalscoring numbers, attacking midfielders are encouraged to arrive in the penalty area, and defenders have become significant contributors to goals through increasingly sophisticated set-piece routines.

This raises a question that extends beyond the transfer market: has modern football redistributed the responsibility for scoring goals so extensively that the specialist centre-forward is becoming a rarer commodity?

The apparent disappearance of the elite number nine

The perception among many supporters is that the market for elite number nines no longer possesses the depth or star power it once did. Clubs continue to spend enormous sums on centre-forwards, yet finding a striker who combines consistent goalscoring with the ability to lead an attack remains exceptionally difficult.

Erling Haaland is perhaps the clearest contemporary example of the traditional penalty-box striker operating at the highest level in the Premier League. His movement, physicality, acceleration and ruthless finishing make him an almost archetypal number nine, even within Manchester City's possession-oriented system.

His significance extends beyond his individual numbers. Haaland demonstrates that the traditional centre-forward has not become obsolete. Rather, an elite striker who can consistently exploit even small spaces in the penalty area remains an extraordinarily valuable asset.

Yet the broader market tells a more complicated story. Harry Kane is an elite centre-forward whose playmaking ability frequently draws him away from the penalty area. Kylian Mbappé is most dangerous when he can attack space from the left or through the middle, while other forwards offer combinations of pressing, link-up play, physical presence and finishing.

These are not necessarily inferior players. They are different solutions to different tactical problems.

The distinction matters because the debate is not whether football still produces talented forwards. It is whether clubs are producing and recruiting enough players who can perform the specialised functions associated with a prolific, penalty-box-dominant number nine.

A Guardian analysis published in October 2026 found that strikers accounted for 25.9% of Premier League goals, compared with 41.6% two decades earlier. While positional classifications and tactical systems complicate any direct comparison, the decline illustrates how much the distribution of goals has changed.

The question, then, is not simply where the next Haaland will come from. It is why the modern game increasingly expects goals to come from elsewhere.

The winger as a second striker

One of the defining developments of contemporary attacking football is the transformation of the winger.

Historically, wide players were frequently valued for their ability to beat opponents, deliver crosses and create opportunities for a central striker. Goals were welcome, but the winger's primary function was often to supply the forward.

That relationship has changed considerably.

Modern wingers are increasingly expected to function as secondary strikers. They attack the far post, make diagonal runs behind defensive lines, move inside onto their stronger foot and occupy spaces that would traditionally have belonged to a centre-forward.

Mohamed Salah, for example, has demonstrated how a player starting from a wide position can become the principal goalscoring reference point for an elite team. Other modern attackers have followed similar trajectories, combining the responsibilities of a winger with the output expected from a striker.

The tactical logic is compelling. A winger who begins wide can exploit the space outside a full-back before moving inside to finish. His starting position also creates uncertainty for defenders: should the full-back follow him, or should a centre-back step out to prevent him entering the penalty area?

That uncertainty can create valuable space elsewhere.

Managers also have greater opportunities to construct fluid attacking rotations. A winger can move inside while an overlapping full-back provides width, a midfielder attacks the half-space and the number nine occupies the central defenders. In other systems, the winger becomes the primary threat while the centre-forward creates space through decoy runs and defensive occupation.

Consequently, a striker's contribution may be measured not only through goals and assists but also through the space he creates for others.

However, there is a potential problem.

When recruitment departments increasingly prioritise wide forwards who can score 15 or 20 goals a season, the traditional striker is no longer the sole beneficiary of a team's attacking resources. Goals are distributed across the front line, and the centre-forward may be expected to facilitate the scoring of teammates as well as finish chances himself.

This can make a striker appear less productive without necessarily making him less valuable.

It also complicates recruitment. Should a club purchase a centre-forward who scores 25 goals but offers little outside the penalty area, or a more versatile attacker who scores fewer but improves the functioning of the entire attack?

The answer depends on the system, the available personnel and the quality of chances created. There is no universally correct profile.

Nevertheless, the increasing importance of goalscoring wingers helps explain why the traditional number nine is no longer the automatic focal point of every elite attack.

Has tactical versatility come at a cost?

The modern forward is expected to do considerably more than score.

Pressing from the front, linking midfield to attack, occupying multiple positions, protecting possession and contributing defensively are all common requirements. Some teams demand that their centre-forward initiate the press, while others expect him to drop into midfield to create numerical superiority.

These demands are understandable. Elite football has become increasingly sophisticated in its use of space, and a forward who can contribute across several phases of play offers managers tactical flexibility.

Yet there is a potential tension between developing a complete forward and developing an exceptional goalscorer.

A young striker who spends much of his development learning to press, combine and rotate positions may receive less specialised coaching in the details of penalty-box movement, finishing under pressure, anticipating rebounds and attacking crosses.

This is a hypothesis worth investigating rather than an established explanation for the decline in striker goals. Nevertheless, it raises an important question about player development: are academies producing forwards who fit collective systems, or are they also cultivating the individual instincts required to become elite finishers?

A specialist number nine must understand when to attack the near post, when to hold his run, how to manipulate a defender's body position and where a second ball is likely to fall. These skills are not always visible in highlight compilations, yet they can distinguish a reliable goalscorer from a forward who merely occupies the correct spaces.

The issue is not that tactical versatility is undesirable. It is that versatility should not come at the expense of specialisation.

Football has room for forwards who create opportunities, forwards who dominate transitions and forwards who operate as penalty-box finishers. The danger emerges when clubs assume that every young attacker must become a multifunctional player without preserving the individual qualities that make certain profiles exceptional.

The set-piece revolution and the changing sources of goals

The redistribution of goals does not stop with the forward line.

Defenders are increasingly important contributors to attacking output, particularly from corners and free-kicks. Centre-backs with aerial dominance, full-backs with intelligent movement and midfielders who can deliver precise dead-ball passes all have a role in modern set-piece systems.

The importance of this development should not be underestimated.

Opta's analysis of the 2025–26 Premier League season found that 28.3% of goals had come from non-penalty set-pieces by the halfway point of the campaign. That was a substantial increase on the 20.6% recorded across the previous season.

Arsenal's success in this area was especially notable. In April 2026, Opta reported that Mikel Arteta's side had scored a record 17 goals from corner situations in a single Premier League season.

These figures illustrate how dead-ball situations have become an increasingly sophisticated component of attacking strategy. Set-pieces are no longer merely opportunities to deliver the ball into a crowded penalty area and hope for the best. They involve carefully rehearsed movements, blockers, decoy runs and coordinated attempts to exploit defensive weaknesses.

The consequences for goalscoring are significant.

A centre-back can contribute several goals in a season without being involved in open-play attacking patterns. A team can compensate for a shortage of prolific forwards by improving its delivery, attacking movement and set-piece organisation.

This does not mean defenders are replacing strikers. Their goals arise from different circumstances and serve different tactical purposes. Nevertheless, it further distributes responsibility for scoring across the team.

It also demonstrates why recruitment cannot be viewed in isolation. A club that struggles to acquire an elite striker may find alternative sources of goals through its wingers, midfielders and defenders. Conversely, a team with an exceptional number nine can still underperform if its chance creation and set-piece execution are poor.

The modern scoring equation is therefore increasingly collective.

Are clubs diagnosing the wrong problem?

The growing distribution of goals raises a further question about recruitment: when a team struggles to score, does it necessarily need a new striker?

Expected goals (xG) can help distinguish between the quantity and quality of chances a team creates and the goals it actually scores. However, the metric must be interpreted carefully. A shortfall against expected goals does not automatically mean a striker is wasteful, nor does a strong goalscoring record necessarily prove that a player will sustain his output.

Clubs need to investigate the entire attacking process.

Are forwards receiving the ball in dangerous areas? Are wingers consistently beating their markers and delivering cutbacks? Are midfielders arriving in the penalty area at the right moments? Does the centre-forward have the movement and technical qualities required by the system?

A striker may struggle because he is missing clear chances. Equally, he may be receiving difficult passes, competing against several defenders or being asked to create opportunities for teammates rather than occupy the penalty area.

These situations demand different solutions.

Recruiting another striker without understanding the underlying problem can be an expensive mistake. A club that lacks effective chance creation will not necessarily improve by replacing its forward, just as a side that consistently generates high-quality opportunities may benefit more from a clinical finisher than from another versatile attacker.

The best recruitment departments must therefore evaluate players in context, combining statistical analysis with tactical observation and an understanding of how the individual will fit into the team's attacking structure.

The number nine is evolving, not disappearing

It would be premature to conclude that the traditional centre-forward is destined to disappear. Football repeatedly moves between tactical trends, and the limitations of one approach often create opportunities for another.

The rise of possession-oriented systems helped encourage false nines and fluid attacking structures. The increasing emphasis on pressing and transitional play has subsequently reinforced the value of forwards who can threaten space behind defensive lines.

The next evolution may involve a renewed appreciation for specialists: strikers who can dominate the penalty area, wingers who consistently create and score, and midfielders who arrive in dangerous spaces without compromising the team's balance.

There is no reason why these profiles cannot coexist.

Indeed, the most effective attacking teams may be those that combine them intelligently. A prolific number nine can occupy central defenders and create space for an inverted winger. A goalscoring winger can force the opposition's defensive line to stretch, opening channels for the striker. Meanwhile, a set-piece threat can provide an additional source of goals when open-play attacks become predictable.

The objective is not to return to a footballing era in which every team revolves around a single centre-forward. It is to ensure that the development of collective attacking systems does not eliminate the specialist qualities that make individual players decisive.

Haaland's importance is not simply that he scores goals. It is that he demonstrates the enduring value of a player who can turn an apparently ordinary attacking situation into a clear opportunity with one run or one touch.

The number nine market may not be short of forwards, but elite goalscorers who fit a particular tactical profile remain difficult to find. That distinction should shape how clubs develop young players, evaluate recruitment targets and design their attacks.

Modern football has not abandoned the striker. It has redistributed his responsibilities, changed his supporting cast and raised the demands placed upon him.

The challenge for clubs is to recognise that tactical versatility and specialist excellence need not be mutually exclusive. The next great number nine may not look exactly like his predecessors, but the ability to finish consistently at the highest level will remain one of football's most valuable qualities.