Mikel Arteta: Division Collision
Did you know that the whole of the thought experiment “Schrödinger’s Cat” was a joke about absurdity? Applying the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics to everyday problems, you get the absurdity of a cat being both dead and alive. A superposition. That is until you make a definitive decision to open the box to confirm which state it is in.
Those words above were ones describing the situation that an ailing Arsenal found themselves in.
My words.
Everyone can remember that period, where every next game was thought to be the last of Mikel Arteta’s reign. It was Christmas Eve 2020 that I wrote those words. Two days later, Arteta would face off against Frank Lampard’s Chelsea, running out as unexpectant winners. It was deserved and antithetical to any of the performances in the 55 days prior. Those miry days include losses to Leicester, Aston Villa, Burnley, Wolves, Everton and Tottenham. The losses against Man City and Liverpool before the thick of that run were to be expected. The run afterwards wasn’t.
That run was something that hadn’t been experienced in that part of North London this millennia. Even the dark days of the season prior with Emery, where they had 1 win in 12 too, they only lost 5 games. In 2020/21, they managed 2 wins but 2 draws. Despite winning one more, they collected 2 less points than that dreadful run. Emery was gone halfway through that run as well and Arteta was appointed by the time he took on Bournemouth and Chelsea in the last two of that twelve.
I thought it important to paint the picture of the overgrown garden that Arteta had been working himself through and at a point, it looked like the constraint of the weeds would be too much for this fledgling manager. Because what I wrote those 4 and half years ago was essentially a preparation for a humbling first foray into management for Mikel Arteta.
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But it is important to remember the soil hides much of what anchors the beautiful flowers that you see in the garden, and it isn’t seen without the continued work of the gardener to give those flowers the right environment to grow.
“All the above shows that the method to the process he has undergone has yielded results that can be backed up. The aspirations he has created in that garden from the seeds he planted means that even despite the disappointment of the past season, the garden has taught Arteta enough to potential aspire to the zenith that the fans of Arsenal so sorely crave.”
Again, my words. This time as complimentary as there could be, in an unpublished article about Arteta from May 2023. At that point, he had taken Arsenal to a 2nd place finish behind the juggernaut that is, or maybe now was, Man City. Not once, but twice. Each with their own twinges of regret but also a recognition of progress from the endeavours of the previous year. This year however, the twinges turned into furious pangs.
Man City were not who they trailed. It was a Liverpool team: one who had just lost their all-conquering Klopp; with a new manager, Arne Slot; and without major surgery to their team. The feeling prior to the season’s beginnings was that the natural step that if Guardiola’s juggernaut were to lose their edge, then Arsenal would be the one to step up. The former happened, yet the latter didn’t materialise.
It has led to a divide. At first, I was scathing. Then, I acknowledged the brilliance. It takes up the two positions that I have taken up with the manager over the 5-year period he has been at the helm of Arsenal Football Club. Now, what is to be said currently of Arteta’s Arsenal?
One thing that has been a constant with Arteta is that the progression from the point of his appointment cannot be overstated. It has come with its pitfalls but something that can only be admired is that there seems to be some lesson learned in it each time for the Spaniard.
In 2021/22, the main cause of concern was closing the gap between the height of the ceiling and the depth of the floor in the team. In overall quality of course, but particularly in technical security. Team building in football has always been remarked with “getting your defence right first to provide the foundation” and that was clearly the focus with the signings of Aaron Ramsdale, Ben White, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Nuno Tavares and Sambi Lokonga all participating in the first phase.
Of course, with hindsight, the success of this cohort can be looked at wearily but the idea behind it was clear to see. The famous “if I lose a duel, I’m upset” from the All or Nothing documentary enshrines the mentality that was being instilled by the former Man City coach in this group of players. It culminated in the missing out of Champions League football to their local rivals Spurs but it was much better than the lowly finishes of 8th in the two seasons prior.
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In 2022/23, it was about the ceiling raisers, particularly in attack. If there was a way to describe the style of Arsenal’s then attack is one of a kaleidoscopic mirage of flowers. The signings of Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko from that Man City team seemed to bring some of the football that they play with them. It was almost idyllic stuff and for the first half of the season, it was virtually unstoppable.
Only 1 loss and 2 draws, all of which you can claim Manchester United, Southampton and Newcastle deserved to be on the losing end of. This was a significant turning point in Arteta’s story as Arsenal manager though. The collapse where the season crumbled away after the William Saliba injury and Arsenal’s high-octane way of playing reared its ugly head that they came 2nd to the inevitable Man City. It governed his decisions for the next season.
Arsenal needed a semblance of balance because whilst it was brilliant football, they played on the edge every game. The best teams often do go through a phase where they have a ‘negative feedback’ – a correction mechanism after overdoing something – to get to the correct balance of attack & defence.
Sometimes, teams will build their defence first and then come into problems in breaking down teams so spend more in attack and/or loosen the hand strings. Vice versa for those who are so attacking that the back door is left open. The former Real Sociedad player decided he would get a bit of both – Jurrien Timber and Declan Rice to secure the back and stem the uncontrollable flow of games.
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Kai Havertz to add some variety and physicality in the middle initially, before settling into the attack. In the end, Arsenal would get the closest that they had been since they last won the title 20 years prior. Again, the inevitable Man City but with 5 more points and reducing the gap by 3.
2024/25 was perhaps the first season where there was no significant change in Arsenal. Despite the burning calls for a striker and an additional winger, the idea that the current squad was enough prevailed within the halls of Colney and the Emirates. They got closer in the Champions League than the previous year.
After being stopped by Bayern in the quarters of 23/24’s edition, they bested Real Madrid comfortably at that same stage this year, only be halted by PSG – but the Premier League challenge waned to such a degree that any serious challenge for the title was done prior to the March internationals.
It has brought fans and critics to a weird conundrum with the direction of this Arsenal team. There will be those that will present the idea that it is a necessary evil in the way that Arteta has changed. They’ll point to the 2022/23 season as to why the Basque head coach has tried to eliminate any possibility of games becoming basketball matches.
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That humbling Man City 4-1 defeat in May 2023, due to the Cityzens absolutely stomping all over them in every regard, has indelible scars. The way in which they choke control of the opposition by disallowing the competent space to really attack them is the most admirable feature of the Gunners and it comes from the memories of that game.
The acquisition of Rice has been integral for that. Defensively and in transition, be it when Arsenal win it back or lose it, he is such a key member. His placement in the midfield composition has caused debate, however. Plenty speak to the fact that such is his defensive acumen that he should be stationed in front of the two stalwarts of Gabriel and Saliba to give a protective blanket to the several attacking players you can put on the pitch.
Others say that position is one where the player must be capable to break the lines as the opponents sit in their tight low blocks so the CBs and DMs will be the ones with the space & time to potentially kill teams, finding attacking players in already offensive positions. This is not really Rice’s forte and Arteta seems to be in the camp of the latter given that he is reluctant to place him there.
At the beginning of the campaign, Rice played the 6 role and the Arsenal team were nowhere near as fluid. Since moving him in February 2024, Arteta has not really used him much in that role, with Jorginho and Thomas Partey deputising there instead in that time since. The acquisition of Martin Zubimendi seems to all but confirm that the England international will continue in that role for the foreseeable.
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Through the above, Arsenal are a much harder team to break down and they seem almost impossible to get goals against in open play with everyone at their disposal. Mikel Arteta has taken this team through a bridled path, and they are close to the summit.
Others think the air is thinning a bit too much and everyone is on their last legs. They are of the opinion that he is not the man to lead the team to the former glories, and even beyond what they achieved in the past.
As much as time has passed since those difficult, arduous months in 20/21, some have not forgotten. It was not just the results but the football that was played. The attack was anaemic and Arsenal bored with the horseshoe pass circulation. They were harder to get through than the porous Emery teams, so were hardly losing games by a significant goal difference but were losing, nonetheless.
The problem is that, take out the season of 2022/23, the attack has not been as free flowing any other point with Arteta. Even with 91 goals the previous season but some of that it lends to a gluttonous period between January and March where they got 31 goals in 7 games and if not for that, it would have been a potentially unremarkable return.
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That gluttonous period was not something that would be repeated this year though. Arsenal’s xG for the year is 61.59 (stats from Opta). From open play, it is 44.72. To put that into context, Manchester United, a team that languished close to the Premier League back door and ended up finishing 15th place, have an open play xG of 42.80. To put it into further context, Liverpool have an open play xG of 73.27. Just from open play, their direct title rivals were able to best Arsenal’s overall. It shows how much their attack has been stunted this season.
It would be remiss of me not to mention that absences of Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz at different points in the season but two of those three gave underwhelming performances whilst they were fit. Also, it would not consider that xG only represents shots that have been taken and not ones that should have been. Sometimes, the Arsenal attack can be guilty of overplaying or having poor technical actions that do not allow them to take the shot in the first place but that just points to a different problem with their attacking quality, but it takes us to the same conclusion.
Arsenal have only tasted defeat in the league but 4 times this season but have drawn 14 times. A 38% draw rate. 9 out of those 14 times, they were unable to score more than 1 goal. The personnel aspect of this issue is one of the easier fixing points. One in that they need higher quality through the door this summer within their offensive ranks but also keep them fit. That counts for the whole team. The full up physio room has been something that has made for problems at the back as much as up top.
A lot will argue that a bigger problem is that Arteta perhaps must relent on his control of this team. It looks as if they have been choked of any individuality, the one in which the teams that will sit deep home or away against the Gunners will be powerless to stop. Playing on the margins leaves you susceptible to falling short and that is the way Arsenal have played this season.
You can say that Arsenal have seldom been outplayed over the course of 90 mins in this Premier League season, but you can also say they have seldom blown teams away. Keeping things that tight makes for opportunities where one glaring miss, a silly refereeing error or a bad mistake at the back is the difference between 3 points and 1.
So, the story of Schrodinger’s Cat goes that you put the cat in a box with a decaying radioactive atom. Due to its randomness of which it decays, you don’t know when the half-life, the measurement of how quickly it decays, is up. Thus, the conclusion being reached that it is both dead and alive until you physically check.
In a lot of ways, the collision of the division between those who want Arteta in and those who think that he has reached his ceiling is the radioactive atom. On one hand, the idea that Arteta should remain given what he has done in the past 5 years and the journey he has taken them on is something that cannot be dismissed out of hand.
However, with this season’s regression and the circumstances surrounding it, you can understand those that already had him on a tight leash due to prior doubts or have even run out of the rope they have given him. Even myself, a neutral who has oscillated between praise and criticism for the manager, it is difficult to think where I should lie because there is veracity in both sides of the argument.
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In the end, it might just have to be a situation where the result determines who was right because currently Mikel Arteta is in a superposition that Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics explains. His tenure could both be looked at as dead and alive. Who knows what next season will bring but for many, it will be the definitive decision to open the box to confirm whether Arteta should be dead or alive at Arsenal Football Club.
By: Elijah Sofoluke / @AliquamScripto
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Catherine Ivill / Getty Images