Why Strahinja Pavlović is a Perfect Signing for AC Milan
Strahinja Pavlović moving to AC Milan from Red Bull Salzburg for €18 million is one of those classic ‘under-the-radar’ transfers that occurs every summer. It is low-risk, high-reward, and generally just a good move for all parties involved.
It sees Salzburg, yet again, flip a player for over double what they bought him for a few years prior. It sees Milan pick up a young, yet already experienced and first-team ready defender who‘s still yet to reach his full potential. Whilst it provides Pavlović with a reasonable – but not too drastic – step-up into a top-five European league that is perfectly suited to his current profile, and what it can develop into.
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The latter point is especially crucial for a 23-year-old that has already tried, and underwhelmed, in a similar move to an esteemed European club in the past. Having already played around two thousand Senior league minutes for FK Partizan Belgrade Pavlović, then aged-18, was picked up by AS Monaco in January 2020 for a not insignificant €10m, and was immediately loaned back to the Serbian giants.
Upon returning to the Principality club he played no more than one league minute (!) in his first six months, then performed well in 11 Belgian Pro League starts on loan at Monaco’s sister club Cercle Brugge, and made five starts under Niko Kovač in the first half of the 2021/22 Ligue 1 campaign. However, he received two yellow cards against Lille in the last of those five, in what was his last game in the French top flight to date, as Kovač was sacked on January 1 2022.
That journey clearly highlights the importance for a young player of taking the right step-up, to the right club, at the right time; not only because of how it can stimulate their development, but in how it can stunt it too. Thankfully for Pavlović though, he ensured his next move ticked those boxes – moving to Salzburg for €7m in July 2022 following another six-month loan from Monaco, this time at FC Basel.
In his two years in Austria, the 6’4” defender was immense. He played more league minutes than any of his teammates during that time, started all of Salzburg’s 12 Champions League matches, whilst also featuring prominently for Serbia in the 2022 World Cup and 2024 European Championships in six of his 38 senior international caps to date.
Pavlović’s profile and skillset
Playing as either a wide-centre back in a three for his nation, or on the left of two for a high-pressing, dominant, Salzburg side, Pavlović stands out with imposing physicality, intensity and front-footed nature in all aspects of his game. These roles often afford him the freedom to be extremely proactive out of possession. He loves getting tight to his man and exploiting his bulky, well-built frame to swarm them upon receiving and give them no time on the ball.
At which point, even if the attacker can bypass Pavlović – which can be done due to the Serb’s slight lack of agility on the turn and heavy-footedness in tight spaces – his remarkable speed and power means he’s more than capable of catching up to make a last-ditch intervention; often done by going to ground. He’s also exceptional in the air, able to win long-balls from opponents on the half-way line, clear away crosses into the box from a deep-block, or pose a threat from attacking set pieces.
The data backs this up too. On a per 90-minute basis, Pavlović wins an incredible 9 duels won with a 64% success rate (4.29 of which are aerial duels at a 71.7% success rate), whilst also completing more tackles, ball recoveries and blocks than at least 85% of Austrian Bundesliga defenders – as per FotMob.
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The obvious caveats here are that defensive statistics don’t necessarily capture the quality of defenders, but rather their, or their teams’, style of defending. Meanwhile, these stats detail a Champions-League quality player playing for the best (in all seasons but the last), most dominant team, in a league that is ranked as the 15th best in Europe.
Consequently, the biggest takeaway from Pavlović completing such a substantial volume of defensive in such a high possession side (Salzburg averaged a league-high 58.5% last season), is that – although it is still pretty impressive – it’s more indicative of Pavlović’s desire to defend, rather than his quality on doing so.
He did still complete a similar number of defensive actions in the Champions League, however his success rate in these duels did drop to a still above-average 58% – again suggesting his dominance in Austria is down to the quality of opponents. Additionally, the aforementioned desire to defend does come with its drawbacks, with Pavlović accumulating 25 yellow cards in the Bundesliga and Champions League across his last two campaigns.
As such, it will certainly be interesting to see whether Pavlović’s aggressive style does see him get caught out more often against higher quality attackers, and especially in a team where that same mentality isn’t collectively encouraged to the same degree as in the famously high-pressing Red Bull system.
Nonetheless, Pavlović’s physical traits mean that, if he’s able to acclimatise to the increased quality of Serie A attackers – most notably by understanding when and who he should (or shouldn’t) close down – he is more than capable of consistently dominating duels in Milan’s backline.
On-the-ball qualities
As for Pavlović’s in possession game, his touch and passing under pressure perhaps need more refinement than any other aspect of his game, but his ball-carrying is among his best, most eye-catching traits. Starting with the negatives, his struggles on-the-ball are somewhat related to those he has off-it, arising in situations where he can’t rely on his physicality, but instead needs to utilise more technical abilities, like quick-feet or a soft touch.
Showing this, according to Fbref, he ranks well below the average Champions League defender for miscontrols made and number of times dispossessed per 90. His passing doesn’t fare much better either. The Serbian international’s adeptness at playing ranging switches of play to the right-wing or sending whipped crosses into the box serve him well when occupying wider spaces, but he isn’t the most progressive passer, and his accuracy in general has lots of room for improvement; he attained a passing accuracy of around 81% in both the Champions League and Bundesliga last season.
For context, that is well below the top-five league average for centre-backs of 85.4%, as well as the 91% mark reached by his new Milan teammates Fikayo Tomori and Malick Thiaw respectively. As alluded to though, Pavlović makes up for this in his ball-carrying. His rank in the top 10% of positional peers for completed dribbles and progressive carries highlight this, but still doesn’t do justice to his exceptional ability to powerfully drive the ball forwards with ease.
It’s not uncommon to see Pavlović seamlessly bypass the opposition press by simply running through it, whether it be in knocking the ball round his man and striding into space ahead of him out wide, or using his body to shrug off anyone that gets near him as he surges through the centre of the field with the ball at his feet.
This subsequently drags multiple opponents out of position (or eliminates them from the sequence entirely), and allows Pavlović to offload to more creative teammates in pockets of space, before he either holds his position or even continues his run into the box. That is, if the opposition haven’t resorted to bringing him down yet, which happens at least once a match in the Austrian first division. Just to reiterate, that is a centre-back drawing one foul a match.
So, we’ve covered Pavlović’s general strengths and areas for improvement both in and out of possession, but most of that will be negligent if his fit in his new side isn’t considered.
Why Pavlović is an ideal signing for The Rossoneri
Whilst the exact tactical makeup of Paulo Fonseca’s new side will reveal itself over time, the tactics of Fonseca’s previous sides, Milan’s over the prior seasons, and the skillsets of many highly-talented individuals in the Italian side’s squad, give more than enough reason to be excited about Pavlović’s move to the San Siro.
Firstly, the transition in team playing styles for Pavlović shouldn’t be too stark. Fonseca’s Lille and Stefano Pioli’s Milan averaged over 55% possession over the past two seasons, whilst Opta data puts them both in their respective leagues’ top five teams for opposition passes allowed per defensive actions (PPDA), which measures pressing intensity.
Where he plays, and who he plays with, will also suit Pavlović; as well as his defensive counterparts. Although it may exacerbate his struggles against tricky wingers, Pavlović will be effective in deputising for Theo Hernández at left-back when needed, able to tuck inside to form a back three in-possession and enable the right-back to push forwards, whether that be captain Davide Calabria, new signing Emerson Royal or even exciting youngster Álex Jiménez.
More likely though, he’ll be utilised in a well-balanced centre-back pairing alongside Tomori, with both players able to rotate roles as one pushes up tight to his man, whilst the other sweeps up the space in behind. That’s not to mention how Pavlović’s arrival will directly benefit Hernández.
In a defence ravaged by injuries – Milan had four different central defenders make at least 14 league starts and conceded the 11th most goals in the division – the 26-year-old was significantly restricted under Pioli last season, and even had to occasionally fill in as a makeshift central defender along with Italy’s ‘Mr Versatile’ Alessandro Florenzi.
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So, both due to due Pavlović’s skillset, and his injury record (he’s never missed a game other than due to illness, according to Transfermarkt) Hernández will be provided with the freedom to bomb forward with his trademark over and underlapping run to Rafael Leão, thus not only maximising the Frenchman’s abilities, but the Portuguese starman’s too. In conclusion then, it’s clear how Pavlović’s move to Milan is not only perfect for the player himself, but for the club too.
In fact, former Milan legend and now-senior advisor Zlatan Ibrahimović said so himself during a recent press conference. When introducing their new signing, the Swede stated: “We wanted a good defender with a good profile, and his [Pavlović] profile is a good one! Given that we conceded a lot of goals last season, we were looking to strengthen our back line. So, Strahinja fit the perfect profile.”
By: Travis Levison / @TravisLevison67
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Image Photo Agency / Getty Images