Bayer Leverkusen v Stuttgart Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Bayer Leverkusen v Stuttgart
Kick Off: Saturday 17th August, 19:30
Competition: DFL-Supercup
Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
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Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart will contest the German Super Cup on Saturday at the BayArena, the home of the Bundesliga champions. Xabi Alonso’s side famously negotiated last season undefeated domestically, dethroning Bayern Munich in the league while also claiming the DFL-Pokal thanks to victory over second-tier opponents Kaiserslautern in the final.
Stuttgart, meanwhile, earned their place in this encounter thanks to finishing runners-up in the Bundesliga, a massive 17 points behind their hosts for this game. This is just the second time each of these clubs finds itself on this stage, with Leverkusen vying for their first title.
Match stats: Leverkusen to confirm domestic dominance
First up, it’s worth noting that Bayer have done a remarkable job of keeping last season’s squad together. Jonathan Tah may leave before the end of the window, but they have otherwise retained all their key players, which bodes well for the season ahead.
Stuttgart, on the other hand, look comparatively weaker to the team that finished second last season, losing both starting centre-backs, including captain Waldemar Anton, plus top scorer Serhou Guirassy. They are comparatively much weaker than the team that twice drew with Leverkusen in the Bundesliga last season.
Odds of 1.8 on Alonso’s side to get the victory therefore look attractive. Those were, meanwhile, attractive games. The clubs played out a 2-2 draw in April in Leverkusen, which boasted 3.1xG, while the previous 1-1 draw in December actually had 3.9xG. On top of this, there was a DFL-Pokal clash that Leverkusen won 3-2. This is a head-to-head not short of goals and Over 2.5 are priced at 1.5.
Back Leverkusen to rack up a sizeable corner count. In 18 of their last 19 competitive matches last season in the Bundesliga and Europa League, they posted at least five or more corners. Remarkably, they managed at least eight on 10 occasions during this run. For this reason, they are also liable to win more corners than their opponents. Last season in the Bundesliga, they won this battle 5-2 when they played at home, with the other encounter finishing 8-8 on the corner count.
Prediction:
Leverkusen to win
Over 2.5 goals
Leverkusen to win 5 or more corners
Shot stats: Fuhrich a Leverkusen specialist
While the Leverkusen narrative is often dominated by talk of Florian Wirtz, Granit Xhaka, Tah and, perhaps to a lesser extent Victor Boniface, there is a dangerous outsiders who has a strong record against Stuttgart.
Robert Andrich scored two of his six goals in all competitions during the 2023/24 campaign against Stuttgart. On the other hand, VFB’s Chris Fuhrich scored in each of the three games against the Bundesliga runners-up last term. They are 6.5 and 5.0 to find the net at any point in this game.
Still looking at goals, it should be noted that Deniz Undav, who made his move from Brighton permanent in the summer, scored 18 in the Bundesliga last term, which is more than Leverkusen’s leading marksman in Boniface. His price of 3.6 to score anytime looks big given that Stuttgart managed to scored four times in three games against this opponent last term.
Looking more specifically at shots, look for a sizeable count from both teams. Across the three fixtures last term, there were 92 efforts on goal in total, including 36 on target.
Value in this regard could be on Tah, who is expected to start despite the transfer speculation. Last term, he had shots on target in two of the three encounters, and in the one he failed, he only played 45 minutes. Similarly, Alex Grimaldo and Amine Adli matched this achievement. Leverkusen’s typically more dangerous players were quieter.
Undav managed seven shots on target across the three encounters, working the keeper in each game, which no Leverkusen player achieved. Remarkably, Fuhrich went better by netting in each match. History suggests they will carry a big threat once more.
Predictions:
Deniz Undav to score anytime
Jonathan Tah to have 1 or more shots on target
Chris Fuhrich to have 1 or more shots on target
Foul stats: Frimpong to win the frees
It was rather surprising how mild two of these fixtures were last season given how competitive the matches went. The cup clash produced just 14 total fouls (eight from Leverkusen and six from Stuttgart), while the opening league encounter had only 15. These games had a total of only five cards.
The final league encounter was a far more fiery affair, producing as many fouls as the two previous matches combined plus seven cards. A return to the more sedate encounters is likely given the ceremonial nature of this encounter, so there are unlikely to be too many bookings or cards shown. Who are the likely protagonists in these markets, though?
In that explosive __ fixture, there was a battle in the centre of the park. Jamie Leweling and Enzo Millot of Stuttgart each gave up five fouls while Exequiel Palacios and Amine Adli of B04 won five and four respectively. Interestingly, though, none of these players are expected to start the game.
The home wing-backs in Alex Grimaldo and Jeremie Frimpong, then, are the players to watch in terms of being fouled. The latter picked up 1.36 fouls per 90 last season, while the former was fouled three times in the last clash between these clubs and represents more of an outside bet.
Frimpong tended to win his fouls in clusters of twos and threes. Indeed, in his last eight Leverkusen matches last term, he was fouled exactly once in a game only on one occasion. Backing him to pick up a couple of free kicks, then, could be the way to go.
The Dutchman will go up against Maximilian Mittelstadt, who committed 1.2 fouls per 90 last season. Leverkusen are a side, meanwhile, that do not give away many free kicks. Undav won three free kicks against them across three meetings last season, which is the same figure as Atakan Karazor, who was Stuttgart’s leader in this regard in the Bundesliga as he drew 61 fouls at 2.1 per 90.
Predictions:
Jeremie Frimpong to be fouled on 2 or more occasions
Arakan Karazor to be fouled on 2 or more occasions
Deniz Undav to be fouled on 1 or more occasions
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Neil Baynes – Getty Images
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