Can Marseille stop Lens’ sensational run of form?
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Marseille welcome the current unlikely leaders in Ligue 1, with Lens looking to shake up the established order in the French top flight. The away side come into this game having won each of their last five matches across all competitions, and are currently one point clear of PSG at the top of Ligue 1.
Roberto De Zerbi’s side faced a bit of a setback during the week as they lost 3-0 against Liverpool, meaning that they will have to get a result on the final day to be sure of their chances of finishing in the top 24 in the Champions League. Marseille have been steady domestically, but victory here could put them into the title discussion.
Match Stats: Lens strong on the road
One of the key factors behind Lens’ success in Ligue 1 so far this season is their away record. Pierre Sage’s side boast the best record on the road of any team in Ligue 1, having won six of their nine matches, collecting 19 points in the process. Marseille have been strong at home this season with six wins from their nine matches, with these games being goal heavy – Marseille have seen 34 match goals across these games (3.77 per game).
This could prove to be problematic for Lens, they are at their best when they are able to keep games tight, Marseille have the firepower to disrupt that approach. Lens did manage to deal with this in the most recent head-to-head clash, coming away 2-1 winners in a game that saw Lens limit Marseille to an xG of just 0.66. I think Marseille will be able to carry more of an attacking threat this time around as the home side, motivated by the fact that a win here would put them in the discussion for the title.
Predictions –
BTTS @ 1.53
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.61
Draw or Lens @ 1.80
Shot Stats: Wesley Said worth watching
Wesley Said has registered 10 goal contributions across his 15 starts in Ligue 1 this term, and has been an important asset in Lens currently being the league leaders. No Lens player has registered more goal contributions than Said in Ligue 1, underlining his importance to the side.
Said netted Lens’ winning goal against Auxerre last time out, which was a very important goal in the context of keeping Lens ahead of PSG. Said has also scored against Toulouse within his last five matches, and his underlying numbers are promising. Said has had 34 shots across his 18 appearances in Ligue 1 this term, working out to an average of 2.43 per 90.
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He’s also marginally exceeding his xG (6.49) at the moment, so he’s clinical with chances that do fall his way. The veteran striker has already eclipsed the four goal tally he managed in Ligue 1 last season across 24 appearances, suggesting that he’s found a real strong vein of form this season, with the current goal haul being his highest in Ligue 1 since he’s joined the club.
Predictions –
Wesley Said to score or assist @ 2.20
Wesley Said 3+ shots @ 1.72
Wesley Said 1+ shots on target @ 1.44
Card Stats: High Foul Count for Lens expected
Lens rank fifth in Ligue 1 when it comes to fouls committed per game (13.6), and committed 12 fouls in the most recent head-to-head meeting between the sides, resulting in Pierre Sage’s team picking up three yellow cards in that contest. Lens’ aggression when out of possession is a key part of their game, and allows them to keep the game pragmatic, which is where they thrive.
Marseille can be quite a hot headed team as well, stemming from Roberto De Zerbi, who always operates with a lot of passion on the touchline. Marseille rank eighth in Ligue 1 when it comes to yellow cards (35), and I also wouldn’t rule out a red card in this contest – Marseille have picked up four this season, and this is a high pressure game for both sides, so tempers could easily boil over.
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Predictions –
Lens 11+ fouls committed@ 1.2
Lens 12+ fouls committed @ 1.5
Marseille 2+ cards @ 1.44
Red Card in the game @ 5.0
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Quality Sport Images – Getty Images
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