Como v Monza Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Como v Monza
Kick Off: Sunday 30th November, 14:00
Competition: Serie A
Watch Live: OneFootball
Two Serie A upstarts meet on Saturday as Como face Monza in Italy’s top-flight. Neither club has experienced the campaign they would have wished. Indeed, both lie in the relegation zone heading into the weekend. A win in this clash could act as a crucial springboard to survival, however. So who will come out on top as Cesc Fabregas’ side host an outfit coached by Alessandro Nesta?
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Match stats: Corners where the value is
Como will start this game as favourites, with the home side priced at 2.05 to claim victory. Fabregas’ side, though, have toiled in recent weeks. They are winless in their last seven matches, with five of these ending in defeat. Their biggest issue has been a lack of goals in these fixtures, with Como managing to find the net four times in this run, despite generating 7.1xG. Indeed, they have not scored more than once in a Serie A match since September and have not kept a clean sheet all season.
Monza’s difficulties are not quite so immediate as they picked up a 1-1 draw with Torino in an evenly balanced game last weekend. While they had lost their three previous matches, they were up against strong opponents during that run as they faced Atalanta, Milan and Lazio.
Indeed, Nesta’s side haven’t travelled too badly this season. They have lost only two matches, which were against league leaders Napoli and a midweek clash against Champions League side Atalanta.
While Como’s xG numbers point to better performances than their results would show, the reverse is arguably true for the visitors. Monza have had a poorer xG than their opponents in each of their last four matches; Como have won this particular battle on four of six occasions.
One betting market worth studying in this fixture is the Corner Market. Como win 4.23 per game on average with Monzo the poorest team in the league on 3.15. The guests also give up 5.08 per game while Fabregas’ side rank among the better teams when it comes to preventing these situations with 3.92 against per game.
Prediction:
Como to win 5+ Corners @ 1.57
Como to win the Most Corners @ 1.57
Shot stats: Cutrone and Maldini the threats
Unsurprisingly given the position of these two clubs, there is a lack of potent threat at either team. Como average just one goal per game, while Monza have netted 11 in 13 outings, the joint third-poorest record in the league. So where will the threat come from?
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The home team are the ones to really watch. Although they’ve struggled to score, they stand fourth in Serie A in terms of shots with 186 – almost twice as many as Monza’s 98. Incidentally, the visitors have had the fewest efforts of any side in Italy’s top-flight.
Como have three primary threats: Nicolas Paz, Patrick Cutrone and Gabriel Strefezza. With a combined 98 shots, between them they have had as many strikes as the visiting team.
Cutrone has four goals but has not netted since the win over Hellas Verona on the penultimate day of September. He has had at least three shots in nine of his last 11 starts, however. Similarly, he has at least one shot on target in that same figure.
Nicolas Paz and Gabriel Strefezza have more of a tendency to blow hot and cold. When these players get shots away, they tend to do so in batches of threes and fours but also have more quiet weeks than Cutrone, which explains their longer odds. Strefezza, for example, had six shots against Genoa last weekend, with three on target.
Monza, meanwhile, will look to Daniele Maldini to carry their threat. The midfielder leads them in terms of shots (22) and shots on target (10) in Serie A this season. He is the only of their players to average more than 2.0 shots per 90 or 1.0 shots on target per 90. He posts 2.57 and 1.17 in each of these respective categories.
Given he has had at least three shots and one on target in each of his last three Serie A outings, he is a player worth tracking. Indeed, he has only failed to muster a shot on target in one of his last eight Serie A starts – that against leaders Napoli.
Predictions:
Patrick Cutrone to have 3 or more shots @ 1.4
Gabriel Strefezza to have 3 or more shots @ 1.8
Daniel Maldini to have 1 or more shots on target @ 1.5
Foul stats: Bondo the bad boy
Monza are one of the leading teams in Serie A when it comes to fouls on 187, and indeed their matches have produced the most free kicks in total with 369. They have also picked up joint second-most cards in the league on 36.
Standing clear as their bad boy is Armando Izzo, who has received five yellow cards and will therefore miss this game due to a ban. He has also committed 31 fouls at a rate of 2.67 per 90.
Warren Bondo is, therefore, Monza’s player to watch in this encounter. He has picked up 20 fouls in Serie A this season, with 13 of these coming in his last five matches. Given that he has committed at least two fouls in each of these games, his price of 1.83 in this regard looks rather long.
It may be that Pablo Mari is asked to be more physical in Izzo’s absence. He has tidied up his discipline over the last month after picking up two fouls in five successive starts in September and October.
Real value lies in backing Georgios Kyriakopoulos to commit a foul, just as he has done at least once in six of his last seven starts. He will go head-to-head with Gabriel Strefezza, who has been fouled on 33 occasions in Serie A, making him the league’s second-most fouled player. The Greek is an incredible 1.91 to give away a single foul.
Como have a range of players who give away a low level of free kicks. Alberto Moreno is their one to watch in this regard given his price of 1.4 to give away one foul is significantly longer than his colleagues. The former Liverpool man has given up a foul in three of his last four starts, but the value in this market remains with the Monza players.
Predictions:
Gabriel Strefezza to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.91
Warren Bondo to commit 2 or more fouls @ 1.83
Pablo Mari to commit 1 or more fouls @ 1.22
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Jonathan Moscrop / Getty Images
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