Dortmund v Hamburg Bet Builder Stats & Predictions
Dortmund v Hamburg
Kick Off: 17:30, Saturday 21st March
Competition: Bundesliga
Watch Live: ESPN+
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Dortmund welcome Hamburg, with Niko Kovac’s side hoping to apply some pressure to Bayern Munich in the race for the Bundesliga title. Dortmund have an outside chance of cutting down the gap to the league leaders from now until the end of the season, and can make that gap six points with victory here, if other results go their way.
Hamburg have done well as a newly promoted side to the Bundesliga, and currently boast a six point buffer to the drop zone. Their away record is a bit of a concern ahead of this clash, with Hamburg only managing to win two of their 12 away games this term – notably picking up 20 of their 30 points in the Bundesliga at home this season.
Match Stats: Dortmund worth backing
You can back Dortmund at 1.40 to win here, which is worth taking in my opinion, alongside some other selections. Dortmund have won 10 of their 13 home matches in the Bundesliga this season, netting 30 goals across these games.
Only Bayern Munich (34) have picked up more points at home in the Bundesliga than Dortmund (32) this season. Hamburg are vulnerable on the road, having won just two of their 12 away matches this season – notably conceding 20 goals across these games. Hamburg also have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six games, so Dortmund could end up with a healthy goal count here.
With this in mind, I think it’s worth pairing goals with a Dortmund win here to get a more attractive price. You can back Over 2.5 Goals and Dortmund to win at just under EVS, which is a nice price given the form and goal lines for both sides.
Predictions –
Dortmund to win @ 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53
Over 2.5 Goals + Dortmund to win @ 1.90
Shot Stats: Keep an eye on Maximilian Beier
I’ve been very impressed with Beier this season, with Dortmund having to add a wider variety of options to their attack to lessen the burden on Serhou Guirassy. Beier is Dortmund’s second top goalscorer in the Bundesliga this season, behind Guirassy, with eight goals to his name – already equalling the tally he managed in the Bundesliga last season.
It’s always worth paying attention to players that Brentford and Brighton scout due to their impressive data models, and Beier flagged on the system of Brentford, who tried to prise him away from Dortmund last summer. I can see Beier getting more attention in the summer from Premier League clubs as he has quite a high ceiling, and has shown consistency to build on his performances from last season.
Beier has taken 39 shots across his 17 starts in the Bundesliga this season (2.43 per 90), seeing 17 of these efforts find the target (1.06 per 90).
Predictions
Maximilian Beier to score anytime @ 3.0
Maximilian Beier to score or assist @ 2.0
Maximilian Beier 1+ shots on target @ 1.53
Maximilian Beier 2+ shots @ 1.3
Card Stats: Hamburg the clear aggressors
Hamburg rank high for fouls and cards in the Bundesliga this season, which isn’t too surprising for a newly promoted side. Only five sides have picked up more yellow cards than Hamburg in the Bundesliga (52), with this working out to exactly 2.0 cards per game.
Hamburg also rank third for fouls committed in the Bundesliga this season, with only Hoffenheim (13.8 per game) and Union Berlin (13.1 per game) committing fouls than Hamburg (12.0 per game). Hamburg exceeded this foul count in the most recent meeting between the sides, committing 14 fouls as they held Dortmund to a 1-1 draw.
A longer odds angle for this game is Hamburg to receive a red card. They’ve received six red cards in the Bundesliga this season, more than any other side in the division.
Predictions –
Hamburg 2+ cards @ 1.44
Hamburg 13+ fouls committed @ 1.8
Hamburg to be shown the most cards @ 1.67
Hamburg to be shown a red card @ 9.0
By: @AndysBetClubUK
Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Mike Egerton – PA Images
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